2C.6
Intraseasonal predictability of Atlantic basin hurricane activity
Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
The Atlantic basin hurricane season officially lasts from 1 June through 30 November. The vast majority of the activity (>95% of the major hurricane activity) occurs during the peak months August, September and October. Previous analyses have demonstrated that early season (June-July) overall tropical cyclone activity has no relationship to the activity during the remainder of the season. Results will be presented that demonstrate that if the June-July activity is stratified properly, however, it can yield a strong predictive signal for the activity during the rest of the season. The occurrence of a certain types of activity in June or July is in fact a sufficient (but not necessary) condition for a year with above-average activity.
Results will also be discussed showing how just as the June-July activity contains a signal to help predict the activity for the coming months, June-September (or simply August-September) activity can give a clear indication of what is to come during the final peak month of October.
Session 2C, Intraseasonal Variations of Tropical Cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 2A and 2B)
Tuesday, 23 May 2000, 1:15 PM-3:00 PM
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