1A.5
Limitations on hurricane intensity
Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and Y. Wang
Previous studies have shown that thermodynamic estimates based on long - term mean conditions provided an excellent upper bound on tropical cyclone intensity, the so-called Maximum Potential Intensity. However, it is also well known that most tropical cyclones do not reach this upper bound. We discuss our progress in identifying the processes that can limit the cyclone intensification and prevent cyclones reaching the maximum intensity.
Using a series of numerical experiments, we show how fine-scale details of the convective and mesoscale structure of a tropical cyclone can have a marked impact on the cyclone intensification. We also examine the effects of cyclone movement and proximity to land and oceanic thermal anomalies. This research confirms our earlier findings that most processes act to inhibit, rather than enhance the cyclone intensification potential.
Session 1A, Tropical cyclone intensity change theory I (Parallel with Sessions 1B and 1C)
Tuesday, 23 May 2000, 10:15 AM-12:00 PM
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