The occurrences of floods and other extreme weather events have devastating effect in the Caribbean. Much attention is given to the destruction caused by a major hurricane but such events are rare for a single territory. Far more frequent are heavy precipitation, severe weather, and drought that cause deaths and serious damage to the economy for which little international assistance is available. Forecasting flash floods presents a great challenge for small islands like Jamaica where forecasters are handicapped by the lack of a high-resolution observation network and predictive model results.
Usually, official and public awareness of floods is heightened during Disaster Preparedness Month in June (the early rainy season). This year, however, Jamaica experienced two flash floods during the dry season (January-March), the first of which resulted in six deaths. The January event produced a maximum of 425mm of rain in Port Antonio during the two-day period; twice the normal total for the entire month. Both events were associated with stalled fronts extending well into the Caribbean and interacting with upper level troughs. During January through March 1998, winter storms moved well south of their normal tracks enhancing the precipitation potential of fronts in the Caribbean. Areas close to the highest terrain in the island felt the most adverse effect, in these two cases. Failure to remove all of the debris from the January flood aggravated the situation in March but timely response to warnings prevented loss of life.
Disaster mitigation is constrained by the weakest link in the detection-forecasting-warning-response process. This study addresses the entire process for these two cases and will likely lead to improve procedures for professional training, planning, and public education.