The results from collaborative work between climate scientists and agriculturists from the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico are described. Here, El Niņo and maize production are highly correlated since most crop fields correspond to rainfed areas. El Niņo generally reflects as precipitation deficits in central and northern Mexico. Our analyses have led to the establishment of a seasonal forecast scheme for precipitation at a regional level. Based on statistical and dynamical relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and precipitation, forecasted SST anomalies are used to diagnose and, at the same time, predict precipitation anomalies. In this way, a regional forecast scheme has been developed for interseasonal and interannual precipitation anomalies based on ENSO forecasts. The forecasts and the diagnosis of climate are delivered directly to the producers. Conferences and brochures have been used to explain the basis, potential and limitations of the forecast scheme.
On the other hand, climate forecasts are used to feed an agricultural productivity model (CERES- Maize) to define the possible impacts to corn yields and adaptation measures. These measures are examined in conjunction with maize producers of the region, to combine our analyses and their experience to plan agricultural activities that take climate variability into account.
In a general sense, regional precipitation anomalies were correctly forecasted. The spring - summer corn yields have reduced severely, as foreseen with the agricultural model. The severe drought in 1997 and 98 has increased the interest to maintain collaboration of the producers in obtaining and spreading forecast information.