The fuzzy rule-based model (FRBM) of Galambosi et al. (1998) is extended under climate change conditions for the purpose of analyzing local monthly precipitation events conditioned on macrocirculation patterns and El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A case study in Arizona is presented to illustrate the methodology. The input variables of the FRBM consist of the monthly circulation patterns and lagged Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data; the output of the model is an estimate of local precipitation. After analyzing the basic properties of the precipitation events, climate change scenarios are constructed using a design of experiments approach to obtain input conditions for the fuzzy rule-based model. The results are then interpreted and analyzed using suitable goodness-of-fit criteria. Results of the FRBM are encouraging under the scenario assumptions made in this study.
Reference
Galambosi, A., L. Duckstein, E. Ozelkan and I. Bogardi, 1998, "A fuzzy rule-based model to link circulation patterns, ENSO, and extreme precipitation", In "Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources", VIII. Y.Y. Haimes and D Moser (eds.), ASCE Press, N.Y.