The Oklahoma University Finite Element Analysis Hydrologic Runoff Model (OUFEAHRM) is a physically-based distributed model integrated with a geographic information system. To date, it has been used in a post-analysis mode in various basin studies, with precipitation input consisting of archived Stage III hourly precipitation estimates or archived Level II data.
Real-time implementation of the model as a Flash Flood Prediction
Algorithm (FFPA) is currently underway. Testing is scheduled for
summer of 1998 in the Sterling Forecast Office. A database of topology derived from digital elevation data, infiltration parameters derived from distributed soil data, and hydrologic roughness derived from distributed land use data has been created for the Rappahannock River basin in Virginia. In addition, several modifications to the current version of OUFEAHRM as well as modifications to the input and output data are necessary to facilitate real-time use. Precipitation estimates must be converted to a form acceptable to the geographic information system, and output data must be converted to a form that is meaningful to the user. Once these and other modifications have been made, a calibrated version of the model will be tested at the Sterling Forecast Office in real-time.
This paper discusses the necessary modifications for real-time implementation of the OUFEAHRM distributed model in a forecasting environment. In addition, an initial assessment of the effectiveness of this model as a flash flood forecasting tool will be provided based on testing in Sterling.