The 11th Conference on Applied Climatology

J2.2
THE EFFECTS OF ENSO ON GREAT LAKE CYCLONES

James R. Angel, Champaign, IL; and G. Van Dyke and S. A. Isard

In the fall of 1997, the high water levels in the Great Lakes, combined with the well-publicized El Nino event, raised the concern for possible increased risk from Great Lake cyclones. This question was addressed using a historical database of cyclones that passed across the Great Lakes region for the period of 1950 to 1996. For the same period, the Pacific SSTs in the ElNino3.4 region were used to identify El Nino, neutral, and La Nina events on a monthly basis. Generally, fewer cyclones passed over the Great Lakes region during El Nino events than in neutral and La Nina events, especially in the winter months. Once the 1997 and early 1998 cyclone data are available, the 1997-1998 El Nino event will be compared to the historical results. A preliminary examination of cyclone tracks suggests that cyclones tracked further south during El Nino years, although the results are not conclusive at this point

The 11th Conference on Applied Climatology