In order to both demonstrate quality and determine trends, an objective technique is required for the evaluation of aviation aerodrome forecasts (TAFs). An ongoing verification challenge exists due to the temporal and spatial variability of meteorological parameters. A specific event might be common in one location or in one season while being rare at a different site or in a different season. Using a similar measure to evaluate an event, which varies in frequency either in space or time, often renders comparison meaningless. The ability to compare verification values from season to season, station to station or year to year is required in order to evince quality in aviation forecasting.
A standardization process is developed in order to neutralize the impact of varying meteorological characteristics and conditions. Several normalization techniques are discussed, with results demonstrated for meteorologically diverse airports across Canada. Summary results are presented to enable aerodromes with vastly different meteorological conditions to be juxtaposed and effectively compared. These generic TAF verification scores allow for the comparison of different sites while also providing an assessment of the quality trend over time.
The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology