Environment Canada and NAV CANADA have entered into a contractual agreement for the provision of aviation weather forecast services for aerodromes across Canada. Focusing only on aerodrome forecasts; the contract specifies the requirement for mandatory verification of TAFs with associated incentives and penalties. Performance measurements were established with three indicators of forecast quality: the VFR Reliability Index, the IFR-Alternate Reliability Index and the IFR-Alternate False Alarm Ratio. A fourth measurement calculates the amendment response time for TAFs.
Initially performance goals were somewhat arbitrarily set because of a lack of historical guidelines and to challenge the forecaster. Performance measures have evolved to make the scores and their standards "fair" to both the aviation clients and to the forecasters. Quarterly summary score information are reported as a percentage of a defined goal and are tabulated by individual aerodrome and by the issuing aviation forecast centre. A series of "checks" and "balances" allow the scores to be "strictly proper" in a practical sense. A summary of the philosophy followed in designing the verification system, the performance measures, and the calculation of incentives and penalties is provided.
The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology