The North America Blue Mold Forecast Center in Raleigh, NC provides the tobacco industry and growers with timely documentation on the occurrences (new outbreaks) and potential for further spread (transport of fungal spores) of the pathogen Peronospora tabacina. The Forecast Center is located within the Department of Plant Pathology at North Carolina State University. A total of 469 separate forecasts were prepared on 75 days from March through August, 1997. Forecasts were posted on the World Wide Web each Monday, Wednesday and Friday and more often when necessary. The forecasts document new occurrences, the potential for sporulation at the source, the chance of survival and deposition during long-distance transport of spores and provide a risk assessment of new infection for each separate forecast. New reports, and continuing status of existing disease, are monitored daily via Forecast Homepage Reporting Network by coordinators in the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Coordinators are in daily contact with the Forecast Center and with all other coordinators via an E-mail Report Form.
Blue mold occurred in nearly all the tobacco production areas of eastern North America in 1997. The disease is not known to overwinter in North America north of the 30th latitude. First report of blue mold in commercial tobacco was northwest of Gainesville, Florida on April 23. The source was infected tobacco in Western Cuba. The most active and widespread movement and development of the 1997 epidemic occurred from late May through mid-June in the mid-Atlantic states. The epidemic spread progressively northward arriving in Ontario, Canada on July 25. With few exceptions, blue mold occurrences were dominated by fungicide resistant strains of P. tabacina. Grower and industry confidence in and usage of the forecasts increased over previous years. Twelve of thirteen first reports by state could be explained by forecasting long-distance transport of spores correlated with favorable weather conditions for spore survival and infection. The forecast system, based upon meteorological trajectory analysis and meteorological interpretation, should be applicable to air-borne biota such as pollen and other allergens. Consult: http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/pp/bluemold/
Key terms: Forecast, Forecast Center, Peronospora tabacina, source, risk assessment, fungus spores.