ENSO forecasts with statistical techniques

A Technique of forecasting, originally proposed for the midlatitudes, is applied to ENSO forecasts. The technique is is based in the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) of the covariance matrix of the field. Details of the forecasting scheme can be found in Sanchez Gomez at al.. For this case, 49 years of SST observations in the Pacific and Indian basins are used to build the predictors. The whole state of the tropical Pacific (not only Nino 3) is forecast at lags going from 6 months to 1 year.