27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (Expanded View)

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 23 April 2006
5:00 PM-7:00 PM, Sunday
Conference Registration
 
Monday, 24 April 2006
7:00 AM, Monday
Conference Registration continues Through Friday 28 April
 
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Monday, Big Sur
Session 1A Special Session: Results from the NASA TCSP Experiment
Chair: S. D. Aberson, Hurricane Research Division, AOML, Miami, FL
8:00 AM1A.1Overview of the Field Phase of the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) Experiment  extended abstract wrf recording
Robbie E. Hood, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and E. Zipser, G. M. Heymsfield, R. Kakar, J. Halverson, R. Rogers, and M. Black
8:15 AM1A.2The Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): A NOAA multi-year field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, R. E. Hood, J. B. Halverson, E. J. Zipser, and G. M. Heymsfield
8:30 AM1A.3Tropical cyclogenesis observations from the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment  
Kevin J. Mallen, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and S. A. Braun
8:45 AM1A.4Simulation of tropical cyclones from the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment  
Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. T. Montgomery
9:00 AM1A.5Precipitation Analysis of Passive Microwave Data from the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment  extended abstract
Frank J. LaFontaine, Raytheon Information Solutions/NSSTC, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil and R. E. Hood
9:15 AM1A.6Investigations of a convective burst in intensifying tropical storm Gert during TCSP  
J. B. Halverson, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. A. Hennon, G. M. Heymsfield, M. Black, and R. Rogers
9:30 AM1A.7Intense Convective Burst Observed From Hurricane Emily (2005) During TCSP  
Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. R. Belcher, L. Li, L. Tian, and J. B. Halverson
9:45 AM1A.8Assimilation of satellite and in situ observations during TCSP for understanding tropical cyclone intensification  
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and X. Li
 
8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 1B Tropical Cyclone Structure I
Chair: Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
8:00 AM1B.2Potential vorticity rings and eye subsidence  extended abstract wrf recording
Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. K. Taft, C. M. Rozoff, B. D. McNoldy, J. P. Kossin, and S. R. Fulton
8:15 AM1B.3Interactions between simulated tropical cyclones and an environment with a variable coriolis parameter  extended abstract wrf recording
Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and W. M. Frank
8:30 AM1B.4Phase space-based evaluation of numerical forecasts of cyclone structure evolution  extended abstract wrf recording
Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and J. M. Arnott and F. Chiaromonte
8:45 AM1B.5Energetics of idealized hurricane-like vortices  extended abstract wrf recording
Young C. Kwon, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank
9:00 AM1B.6Formation of the Hurricane Eye  extended abstract wrf recording
Jonathan L. Vigh, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
9:15 AM1B.7A Study of Current Data Sets for Outer Wind Radii   wrf recording
Adam Moyer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans
9:30 AM1B.8Objective identification of annular hurricanes using GOES and reanalysis data  extended abstract wrf recording
Thomas A. Cram, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff, M. M. DeMaria, and J. P. Kossin
 
8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Monday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 1C Tropical Cyclones and Climate I - Theory and Modeling
Chair: James Kossin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
8:00 AM1C.1The 80 cyclones myth  extended abstract wrf recording
William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and G. S. Young
8:15 AM1C.2Interannual to Multidecadal variability of vertical shear in the tropics: Relationship with tropical cyclone activity   wrf recording
Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft
1C.3Tropical cyclones and the environment in which they grow in the NCEP Climate Forecast System  
Hua-Lu Pan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Saha and M. Chelliah
8:30 AM1C.4Tropical cyclone climatology in a global warming climate as simulated in a 20km–mesh global atmospheric model  extended abstract wrf recording
Kazuyoshi Oouchi, AESTO/MRI, Yokohama, Japan; and J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, S. Kusunoki, and A. Noda
8:45 AM1C.5Objective detection of tropical cyclones in climate models  extended abstract wrf recording
Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia; and M. Fiorino, C. W. Landsea, and K. McInnes
9:00 AM1C.6Available potential energy sources in hurricanes and climate  
Olivier Pauluis, New York Univ., New York, NY
9:15 AM1C.7Hurricane-ocean interactions during warm climates  
Robert Korty, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
9:30 AM1C.8Could hurricanes form from random convection in a warmer world?  extended abstract wrf recording
David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and E. D. Rappin and K. A. Emanuel
 
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 1D Intraseasonal Variability I
Chair: Gary Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
8:00 AM1D.1The initiation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation  extended abstract wrf recording
Pallav K. Ray, MPO/RSMAS, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL
8:15 AM1D.2Simulations of linear responses to Madden-Julian oscillation heatings   wrf recording
Zhe Feng, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and P. T. Haertel
8:30 AM1D.3Potential Vorticity Aspects of the MJO  extended abstract wrf recording
Matthew T. Masarik, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert
8:45 AM1D.4A New Multiscale Model for the Madden–Julian Oscillation  
Andrew Majda, New York Univ., New York, NY; and J. Biello
9:00 AM1D.5The role of meridional momentum flux in the IPEDS multiscale models of the Madden-Julian oscillation  
Joseph A. Biello, University if California, Davis, Davis, CA; and A. J. Majda
9:15 AM1D.6Evaluating theories of convectively-coupled equatorial waves using observations of 2-day waves  
Patrick T. Haertel, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and Z. Feng
9:30 AM1D.7The MJO problem in GCMs: What are the missing physics?  
Jia-Lin Lin, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
9:45 AM1D.8Impact of explicit atmosphere–ocean coupling on tropical intraseasonal ocillations  extended abstract wrf recording
Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR, Boulder, CO
 
10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Monday
Coffee Break
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Cypress
Session 2A The 2005 Atlantic season
Chair: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
10:30 AM2A.1Highlights of the unusually active 2005 Atlantic hurricane season-- A YEAR OF BREAKING RECORDS  
Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and L. A. Avila
10:45 AM2A.2Precursor climate aspects of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season  extended abstract wrf recording
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and G. D. Bell and R. J. Pasch
11:00 AM2A.3On the record 2005 hurricane season  
Greg J. Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster
11:15 AM2A.4A comparison of the tropical disturbances that spawned Hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina  
Arlene Laing, NCAR, Boulder, CO
11:30 AM2A.5Evaluation of WRF-ARW high-resolution tropical storm forecasts in 2005 season  extended abstract
Wei Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, J. Klemp, G. Holland, and M. DeMaria
11:45 AM2A.6Katrina, Rita and Wilma: Met Office model forecasts  extended abstract wrf recording
Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and G. Greed
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 2B Tropical Cyclone Structure II
Chair: William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA
10:30 AM2B.1Tropical cyclone inner core energetics and its relation to storm structural changes  extended abstract wrf recording
Katherine S. Maclay, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
10:45 AM2B.2THREE-DIMENSIONAL STRUCTURES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OBSERVED BY MULTIPLE RADARS  
Qingyun Zhao, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California; and Y. Jin
11:00 AM2B.3Modeled secondary eyewall and spiral band dynamics  extended abstract wrf recording
Wesley D. Terwey, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
11:15 AM2B.4Evaluation of WindSat ocean vector wind retrievals in tropical cyclones  
Ian Stuart Adams, NRL, Washington, DC; and Z. Jelenak, C. C. Hennon, and W. L. Jones
11:30 AM2B.5Performance evaluation of rain-corrected scatterometer winds in tropical cyclones  extended abstract wrf recording
Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and K. Hilburn and F. J. Wentz
11:45 AM2B.6Analyzing Tropical Cyclone Rain Shields According to Storm Size  extended abstract wrf recording
Corene J. Matyas, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 2C Tropical Cyclones and Climate II - Extracting Signals from the Data
Chair: Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA
10:30 AM2C.1On the importance of reviewing historical tropical cyclone intensities  extended abstract wrf recording
Bruce A. Harper, Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd, Brisbane, Australia; and J. Callaghan
10:45 AM2C.2Deconvolution of natural internal variability and trends in the SST signal for the analysis of the increase of hurricane intensity  
Paula A. Agudelo, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, P. J. Webster, J. A. Curry, and G. J. Holland
11:00 AM2C.3On the variability of tropical cyclones and category shifts  
L. J. Pietrafesa, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and T. Karl, D. A. Dickey, L. Xie, T. Yan, S. Bao, and M. Peng
11:15 AM2C.4Annual Analyses of Basin and Hemispheric Tropical Cyclones Indices  extended abstract
David H. Levinson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. H. Lawrimore, B. Gleason, and T. W. R. Wallis
11:30 AM2C.5The Lengthiest Tropical Cyclone (TC) Record in the World: Analysis of Typhoon Occurrences Since 700 AD and its Relation with Atlantic Hurricane Occurrences, Global Temperature and Solar Activity  extended abstract wrf recording
Jorge Sanchez-Sesma, Instituto Mexicano de Tecnologia del Agua, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico
11:45 AM2C.6The Impact of Climate Change on Northwest Atlantic Extratropical Hurricanes and Winter Storms  extended abstract
William Perrie, Bedford Insitute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and J. Jiang and Z. Long
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 2D Intraseasonal Variability II
Chair: Chidong Zhang, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
10:30 AM2D.1New modeling evidence of the MJO influence on ENSO  
Javier Zavala-Garay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang
10:45 AM2D.2Seasonal dependence of the MJO-ENSO relationship  
Harry Hendon, BMRC, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and M. C. Wheeler and C. Zhang
11:00 AM2D.3Intraseasonal Kelvin waves and their relation with El Nino development  
Toshiaki Shinoda, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
11:15 AM2D.4Adjustment of the remote tropical climate system to El Niño conditions  
Benjamin R. Lintner, Unversity of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and J. C. H. Chiang
11:30 AM2D.5The role of equatorial Rossby waves in westerly wind bursts  extended abstract wrf recording
Paul E. Roundy, NOAA/CIRES Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis
11:45 AM2D.6Interaction of the South Asian and West African monsoons on intraseasonal to multidecadal timescales  
Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos and P. J. Webster
 
12:00 PM, Monday
Lunch Break
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Big Sur
Session 3A Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones I
Chair: Sarah Jones, Universität Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe Germany
1:30 PM3A.1Global temperature redistribution by recurving tropical cyclones: A wildcard in midlatitude winter forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
1:45 PM3A.2The extratropical transitions of eastern Pacific Hurricane Lester (1992) and Atlantic Hurricane Andrew (1992): A comparison  
Michael Dickinson, Accurate Environmental Forecasting Inc., Narragansett, RI; and L. F. Bosart and K. L. Corbosiero
2:00 PM3A.3Forecasting Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclone Intensification via Projection Pursuit  extended abstract wrf recording
Oguz Demirci, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM
2:15 PM3A.4Supertyphoon Dale (1996): A remarkable storm from birth through extratropical transition to explosive reintensification that impacted the tropics, midlatitudes and the Arctic  extended abstract wrf recording
Eric P. Kelsey, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
2:30 PM3A.5The impact of extratropical transition on the downstream flow: idealised modelling study  extended abstract wrf recording
Michael Riemer, Universität Karlsruhe, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany
2:45 PM3A.6Hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl (2004) and mid-latitude trough interactions  extended abstract wrf recording
Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. S. Peng, C. A. Reynolds, and R. H. Langland
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 3B Tropical Cyclone Intensity I
Chair: Paul D. Reasor, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
1:30 PM3B.1The Intensity of Wind Gust Underneath Areas of Deep Eyewall Convection in Hurricanes Katrina and Dennis at Landfall  extended abstract wrf recording
Richard G. Henning, 46th Weather Squadron, Eglin AFB, FL
1:45 PM3B.2Phenomenological analysis of forces in hurricane dynamics  extended abstract wrf recording
Robert A. Dickerson, Independent Engineering Consultant, Zephyr Cove, Nevada
2:00 PM3B.3Effects of Baroclinicity and Different Initial Asymmetries on Vortex Axisymmetrization  
Jiayi Peng, Internatinal Pacific Research Center,SOEST,University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and M. S. Peng and T. Li
2:15 PM3B.4A transfer function model to predict hurricane intensity  
Nazario D. Ramirez, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico; and J. M. Castro
2:30 PM3B.5A fresh look at tropical cyclone pressure-wind relationships using recent reconnaissance based "best-track" data (1998-2005)  extended abstract wrf recording
Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and J. L. Franklin and C. Landsea
2:45 PM3B.6A device to control sea surface temperature and effects on hurricane intensity   wrf recording
Philip W. Kithil, Atmocean, Inc., Santa Fe, NM
 
1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Monday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 3C Air-Sea Interaction I
Chair: Paquita Zuidema, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
1:30 PM3C.1The Effect of the Ocean Eddy on Tropical Cyclone Intensity  extended abstract wrf recording
Chiaying Lee, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. C. Wu
1:45 PM3C.2Super cyclone boosters in the northwest Pacific Ocean  extended abstract wrf recording
I.-I. Lin, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. -. C. Wu and I. -. F. Pun
2:00 PM3C.3Loop Current Interactions to Hurricanes Isidore and Lili  extended abstract wrf recording
Lynn K. Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn
2:15 PM3C.4Influence of the Loop Current ocean heat content on hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma  extended abstract wrf recording
Benjamin Jaimes, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, E. Uhlhorn, T. M. Cook, J. Brewster, G. R. Halliwell, and P. G. Black
2:30 PM3C.6Improving Ocean State Initialization in Coupled Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models  extended abstract wrf recording
George R. Halliwell Jr., Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, E. W. Uhlhorn, S. D. Jacob, and O. M. Smedstad
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 3D Intraseasonal Variability III
Chair: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY
1:30 PM3D.1Buoy and Satellite Observations of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Variability in the Tropical Northeast Pacific  
Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and S. K. Esbensen
1:45 PM3D.2Temporal clustering of tropical cyclone occurrence on intraseasonal time scales  extended abstract wrf recording
Patrick Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA
2:00 PM3D.3A composite study of sub-monthly circulation features over East Asian monsoon area during late summer   wrf recording
Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu
2:15 PM3D.4Summer intraseasonal variability forecasting: Analysis of a serial numerical experiment and evaluation of slow manifold modeling  
Carlos D. Hoyos, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster and H. M. Kim
2:30 PM3D.5Simulation of the northward propagation of the 30-60 day oscillation by ECHAM T42 and T106  
Chih-Hua Tsou, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. C. Chen and C. T. Chen
2:45 PM3D.6Scale Selection for Tropical Bi-weekly and Intraseasonal Oscillations  
Tim Li, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and C. Zhou
 
3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Monday
Coffee Break
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Big Sur
Session 4A Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones II
Chair: Patrick Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA
3:30 PM4A.1Characteristics of North Atlantic subtropical storms  extended abstract wrf recording
Mark P. Guishard, Penn State University, University Park, PA
3:45 PM4A.2Numerical modeling of Atlantic hurricanes moving into the middle latitudes  extended abstract wrf recording
Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and R. Greatbatch and H. Ritchie
4:00 PM4A.3Dynamical structures and precipitation distributions of transitioning tropical cyclones in Eastern Canada, 1979-2004  
Shawn M. Milrad, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum
4:15 PM4A.4The importance of resolved microphysics to reintensification during the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones  extended abstract wrf recording
Brian J. Gaudet, Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and E. A. Ritchie
4:30 PM4A.5Sensitivity of ensemble forecasts of extratropical transition to initial perturbations targeted on the tropical cyclone  extended abstract wrf recording
Doris Anwender, Universität Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. Leutbecher, S. Jones, and P. Harr
4:45 PM4A.6Dynamics of the wind field expansion with extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones  extended abstract wrf recording
Clark Evans, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
5:00 PM4A.7Initial condition sensitivities for Western Pacific extratropical transition events  
Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
5:15 PM4A.8Evolution and global impacts of a diabatically-generated warm pool: Hurricane Katrina (2005)  
Ron McTaggart-Cowan, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. Atallah
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 4B Tropical Cyclone Intensity II
Chair: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM4B.1Tropical Cyclone Response to Time Depandant, Axially Symmetric Heating  extended abstract
Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL
3:45 PM4B.2The role of the ocean in convective burst initiation: implications for tropical cyclone intensification  
Paula Ann Hennon, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. B. Halverson
4:00 PM4B.3Inner Core Structure and Intensity Change in Hurricane Isabel (2003)  
Peter J. Kozich, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen
4:15 PM4B.4The Impact of Multi-Satellite Data on the Initialization and Simulation of Hurricane Lili's (2002) Rapid Weakening Phase  
Xiaoyan Zhang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Q. Xiao and P. J. Fitzpatrick
4:30 PM4B.5Upgrades to the UW-CIMSS AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity algorithm  
Derrick Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden
4:45 PM4B.6The evolution of low-wavenumber vorticity during rapid intensification: A dual-Doppler analysis  extended abstract
Matthew D. Eastin, Central College, Pella, IA; and P. D. Reasor, D. S. Nolan, F. D. Marks, and J. F. Gamache
5:00 PM4B.7An Evaluation of the Microphysics Fields of Hurricane Dennis (2005) at Different Stages of Its Lifecycle  extended abstract wrf recording
Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, P. Willis, R. Black, A. Heymsfield, A. Bansemer, and G. Heymsfield
5:15 PM4B.8The rapid intensification of Hurricane Guillermo (1997) as viewed with GPS dropwindsondes  extended abstract
Matthew Sitkowski, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Dolling and G. Barnes
 
3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Monday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 4C Tropical Cyclones and Climate III - Trends
Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO
3:30 PM4C.1Global warming and hurricanes  extended abstract wrf recording
William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
3:45 PM4C.2Environmental Influences on Tropical Cyclone Variability and Trends  extended abstract wrf recording
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
3:59 PMPaper 4C.3 moved to poster session 5. New Paper number P5.25  
4:00 PM4C.4Trends in large-scale circulations and thermodynamic structures in the tropics derived from atmospheric reanalyses and climate change experiments  extended abstract wrf recording
Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and H. L. Tanaka
4:15 PM4C.5Increasing Atlantic hurricane activity in prospect from global warming  
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and A. S. Lea
4:30 PM4C.6Leading Tropical Mode Associated with Increased Atlantic Hurricane Activity since 1995  
Gerry Bell, NOAA/NWS/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Chelliah
4:45 PM4C.7Twentieth-century warming of the tropical Atlantic Main Development Region: a model-based assessment  
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Monday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 4D Africa Weather and Climate
Chair: Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
3:30 PM4D.1Easterly wave diagnostics  extended abstract wrf recording
Gareth J. Berry, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft and T. Hewson
3:45 PM4D.2The role of Kelvin wave activity on convection and rainfall over tropical Africa  extended abstract wrf recording
Ademe Mekonnen, SUNY, Albany, NY
4:00 PM4D.3Subseasonal rainfall variability in the tropical eastern Atlantic-West African region  
Guojun Gu, NASA/GSFC and Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Adler
4:15 PM4D.4African aerosol and precipitation in the Atlantic ITCZ  
Xiaoyu Liu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang
4:30 PM4D.5Recent rainfall trends across tropical West Africa: Observations and potential causes  
Michael Christoph, Univ. of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and A. H. Fink
4:45 PM4D.6Robust response of Sahel precipitation to late 20th century forcings: natural or anthropogenic?  
Michela Biasutti, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and A. Giannini
5:00 PM4D.7Tropical climate variations and their impacts on circulation and precipitation in the Northwest Indian Ocean - Northeast Africa - Southwest Asia region  
Damon C. Vorhees, NPS, Monterey, CA; and T. Murphree and K. D. Pfeiffer
5:15 PM4D.8Diagnosis of African Easterly Wave Structure and Development using Quasi-Geostrophic Potential Vorticity  extended abstract wrf recording
Daniel R. Chavas, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan
 
5:30 PM, Monday
Ice Breaker Reception (Peninsula Restaurant Terrace)
 
Tuesday, 25 April 2006
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Tuesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 5A RIsk Management
Chair: Sytske K. Kimball, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL
8:00 AM5A.1How NWS Impact Statements Were Used to Communicate Imminent Danger from Severe Hurricanes  extended abstract wrf recording
Barry S. Goldsmith, NOAA/NWS, Ruskin, FL
8:15 AM5A.2Information forecasting for hurricane preparation  extended abstract wrf recording
Eva Regnier, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. Harr
8:30 AM5A.3Hurricane Katrina's wind field: Synthesizing wind observations to construct an analysis of record  
Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:45 AM5A.4Event Response Activities for the Near-Real Time Assessment of Financial Losses in Landfalling Hurricanes  extended abstract wrf recording
Richard Dixon, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA; and A. Boissonnade, T. Krebs, and A. O'Shay
9:00 AM5A.5Providing short-fused warnings for the onset of extreme hurricane winds—a final opportunity to minimize casualties  extended abstract wrf recording
Scott M. Spratt, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL; and B. C. Hagemeyer and D. L. Jacobs
9:15 AM5A.6Stochastic modeling of tropical cyclone track data  extended abstract wrf recording
Jonas Rumpf, University of Ulm, Ulm, Germany; and E. Rauch, V. Schmidt, and H. Weindl
9:30 AM5A.7Gust factors in hurricane and non-hurricane conditions  extended abstract wrf recording
Craig Miller, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada
9:45 AM5A.8Correlation of topographic speed-up factors and building damage ratios for Hurricane Fabian in Bermuda  extended abstract wrf recording
Kimberly J. Mueller, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA; and C. Miller, K. Beatty, and A. Boissonnade
 
8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 5B Tropical Cyclone Database
Chair: Greg J. Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM5B.1The Atlantic basin hurricane database re-analysis for the decades of the 1910s, 1920s, and 1930s  
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and S. E. Feuer, D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis, J. F. Gamache, C. J. Mock, R. Perez, J. D. Sims, and L. Woolcock
8:15 AM5B.2The Reasons for a Reanalysis of the Typhoons Intensity in the western North Pacific  extended abstract wrf recording
Karl Hoarau, Cergy-Pontoise University, Cergy-Pontoise, France; and L. Chalonge and J. -. P. Hoarau
8:30 AM5B.3The urgent need for a re-analysis of western North Pacific tropical cyclones  extended abstract wrf recording
Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and C. P. Guard
8:45 AM5B.4The tropical storms mailing list  
William Thorson, Privacy NETWorks, Fort Collins, CO
9:00 AM5B.5Reanalysis of West Pacific tropical cyclone intensity 1966-1987  extended abstract wrf recording
John A. Knaff, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. R. Sampson
9:15 AM5B.6The re-analysis of Hurricane Connie August 12, 1955 and Ione September 19,1955  extended abstract wrf recording
Hugh D. Cobb III, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
9:30 AM5B.7Re-Analysis of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938   wrf recording
Donna Strahan, UNC Charlotte, Charlotte, NC
5B.8A Reassessment of the 1916, 1918, 1927, 1928, and 1935 Hurricanes of the North Atlantic Basin  
David A. Glenn, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC; and C. Landsea
 
8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Big Sur
Session 5C Air-Sea Interaction II
Chair: Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
8:00 AM5C.1Thermodynamic structure of a hurricane's lower cloud and subcloud layers  extended abstract
Gary M. Barnes, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
8:15 AM5C.2The Effects of Sea Spray on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using an Idealized Model  extended abstract wrf recording
Jeffrey S. Gall, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and Y. C. Kwon and W. Frank
8:30 AM5C.3Numerical study on impacts of the wet land boundary layer fluxes on the sustention of typhoon Nina and its rainfall  extended abstract
Ying Li, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China; and L. Chen
5C.4Observations of front-to-back thermodynamic asymmetries in hurricanes  
Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:45 AM5C.5The Effect of Roll Vortices on Turbulent Fluxes in the Hurricane Boundary Layer  
Jun Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Key Bisayne, FL; and W. M. Drennan, S. Lehner, K. B. Katsaros, and P. G. Black
9:00 AM5C.6Mechanical energy and vorticity balances within the OML under tropical cyclones  extended abstract wrf recording
Eric W. Uhlhorn, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS/MPO, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay
9:15 AM5C.7Effects of Surface Waves and Upper Ocean on Hurricane Structure and Intensity in a Fully Coupled Model  extended abstract wrf recording
Wei Zhao, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen
9:30 AM5C.8Numerical simulation of the interaction from an ocean/land/atmosphere coupled model. Part I: results from the ocean/atmosphere coupled model  
Yihong Duan, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and X. Liang and R. Yu
 
8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 5D Monsoons I
Chair: John Molinari, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
8:00 AM5D.1Seasonality in the predictability of Indonesian monsoonal climate  
Alessandra Giannini, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction/Columbia University, Palisades, NY
8:15 AM5D.2Seasonal transitions of zonally symmetric circulations  extended abstract wrf recording
William R. Boos, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
5D.3Onset and variability of the South American Monsoon  
Rosana Nieto-Ferreira, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and T. M. Rickenbach and B. Konkle
8:30 AM5D.4The first transition of the Asian summer monsoon, intraseasonal oscillation, and Taiwan Meiyu  extended abstract
Chih-wen Hung, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. -. H. Hsu
8:45 AM5D.5The relationship between ENSO and East Asian Monsoon revealed by Taiwan climate variations  extended abstract
Mong-Ming Lu, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan
9:00 AM5D.6Interaction between South China Sea monsoon and Indian monsoon  
Rosbintarti Kartika Lestari, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Japan, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan; and T. Iwasaki
9:15 AM5D.7Relationship between Amazon and High Andes rainfall  extended abstract
Edward K. Vizy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and K. H. Cook
9:30 AM5D.8Using information content of coupled climate model simulations to generate multimodel projections of monsoon variability  
Viatcheslav V. Tatarskii, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and D. C. Collins and P. Webster
 
10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Tuesday
Coffee Break
 
10:30 AM-11:45 AM, Tuesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 6A Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones III
Chair: Jenni L. Evans, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
6A.1Evaluation of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of cyclone structure evolution through ET Using the Cyclone Phase Space  
Daniel B. Veren, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans and S. C. Jones
10:30 AM6A.2Detecting tropical cyclone structural change with the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR), Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA)  extended abstract wrf recording
Stephen R. Guimond, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and F. J. Turk, C. B. Blankenship, and J. D. Hawkins
10:45 AM6A.3A Study on the Extratropical Transition of Typhoon Xangsane (2000)  extended abstract wrf recording
C-S. Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. C. Lu
11:00 AM6A.4Asymmetric structure and maintenance in Hurricane Juan  extended abstract wrf recording
Weiqing Zhang, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and W. Perrie
11:15 AM6A.5Adjoint-derived forecast sensitivity study of hurricane track and extratropical transition  
Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
11:30 AM6A.6The overland reintensification of Tropical Storm Danny (1997)  extended abstract wrf recording
Nick P. Bassill, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan
 
10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Tuesday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 6B Tropical Cyclone Structure III - Eyewall Dynamics
Chair: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
10:30 AM6B.1Tropical cyclone multiple eyewall configurations  extended abstract wrf recording
Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Helveston, T. F. Lee, F. J. Turk, K. Richardson, C. Sampson, J. Kent, and R. Wade
10:45 AM6B.2Vortex interactions and the barotropic aspects of concentric eyewall formation  extended abstract wrf recording
H.-C. Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and W. H. Schubert
11:00 AM6B.3Inner core convective asymmetries and vortex Rossby waves in Atlantic basin tropical cyclones  
Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and M. L. Black, A. R. Aiyyer, and J. Molinari
11:15 AM6B.4The dynamics of the eyewall evolution in a landfalling typhoon  extended abstract
Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. J. Cheng
11:30 AM6B.5A new pathway to polygonal eyewalls and asymmetric eyewall contraction  extended abstract wrf recording
Pedro J. Mulero, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin
11:45 AM6B.6Concentric eyewall simulated in a fully compressible, nonhydrostatic, multiply nested, movable mesh tropical cyclone model (TCM4)  
Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
12:00 PM6B.7The formation of concentric eyewall in hurricane Floyd (1999)  
M.K. Yau, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and Y. Chen and M. T. Montgomery
6B.8Tropical cyclone eyewall cycle impact on intensity and wind field structure  
Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Lee, F. J. Turk, K. Richardson, C. Sampson, J. Kent, and R. H. Wade
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Big Sur
Session 6C Air-sea Interaction III
Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR
10:30 AM6C.1Development of a coupled hurricane-wave-ocean model toward improving air-sea flux parameterization in high wind conditions  
Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. J. Moon, B. Thomas, T. Hara, H. L. Tolman, and M. A. Bender
10:45 AM6C.2Evaluation of Upper Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for use in Coupled Models  extended abstract wrf recording
S. Daniel Jacob, GEST, Univ. of Maryland and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. M. Le Vine, L. K. Shay, G. R. Halliwell, C. Lozano, and A. Mehra
11:00 AM6C.3Oceanic Heat Content Variability in Eastern Pacific Ocean  extended abstract wrf recording
Jodi K. Brewster, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay
11:15 AM6C.4Using AXBTs to improve the performance of coupled hurricane-ocean models  extended abstract wrf recording
Richard M. Yablonsky, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis, E. W. Uhlhorn, and A. Falkovich
11:30 AM6C.5The Asymmetry of Coastal Water Level Response to Landfalling Hurricanes Simulated by A Three-Dimensional Storm Surge Model  extended abstract wrf recording
Machuan Peng, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie and L. Pietrafesa
11:45 AM6C.6Local and non-local response of the Straits of Florida to tropical cyclones during 1999-2005  
Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern Univ., Dania Beach, FL; and R. E. Dodge, T. Gustafson, M. E. Luther, and R. H. Weisberg
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 6D Monsoons II
Chair: Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
10:30 AM6D.1A new conceptual model for the meridional circulation of the West African monsoon  
Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. Woodworth
10:45 AM6D.2The onset of the West African monsoon: A numerical study  extended abstract wrf recording
Samson M. Hagos, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York; and K. H. Cook
11:00 AM6D.3The development of intense convective systems in West Africa in wet and dry years, 1998-2005  
Karen I. Mohr, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft
11:15 AM6D.4Rainfall types and associated vertical stability-shear weather regimes during the 2002 West African monsoon season  
Andreas H. Fink, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany; and V. Ermert and D. G. Vincent
11:30 AM6D.5Nocturnal Stratiform Cloudiness and the Structure of the Atmosphere during the West African Summer Monsoon  
Jon M. Schrage, Creighton Univ., Omaha, NE; and S. Augustyn and A. H. Fink
11:45 AM6D.6An unusual dry-season precipitation event over West Africa: The role of an extratropical upper-level disturbance for the heat low and a surge in the monsoonal southwesterlies  extended abstract wrf recording
Peter Knippertz, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and A. H. Fink
 
12:00 PM, Tuesday
Lunch Break
 
1:30 PM, Tuesday
Formal Poster viewing with Coffee Break
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 1 Precipitation/Storm Surge/Flooding
 P1.1Effect of convective entrainment/detrainment on simulation of tropical precipitation diurnal cycle: A regional model sensitivity study  
Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and L. Zhou and K. Hamilton
P1.2The numerical simulation for the heavy rainfall over a mountainous area in Japan caused by typhoon Meari (2004)  
Akihiko Murata, MRI/Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
 P1.3Precipitation response to environmental forcing in tropical cyclones  
Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama in Huntsville, huntsville, AL
 P1.4Validation of Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Severe Storms (Hurricanes & Tornados)  
Nasim Nourozi, NOAA-CREST/CUNY, New York, NY; and S. Mahani and R. Khanbilvardi
 P1.5Evaluation of Satellite-Based Estimates of Precipitation In the Yucatan Region During Hurricane Wilma  extended abstract
F. J. Turk, NRL, Monterey, CA; and G. J. Huffman, R. Joyce, C. Kidd, and R. Kuligowski
P1.6Stochastic Modeling of Typhoon-induced Flood in Taiwan  
Shangyao Nong, Applied Insurance Research, Inc., Boston, MA; and G. Ljung
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 10 Tropical Convection, Clouds, and Rainfall
 P10.1Bias correction of rainfall simulation in east asia using a statistical-dynamic method  extended abstract
Jung-Lien Chu, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. T. Chen
 P10.2Consistency check of TRMM rainfall estimates using a radiative transfer model  
Shoichi Shige, Osaka Prefecture Univ., Sakai, Osaka, Japan; and H. Sasaki and K. Okamoto
P10.3Heavy Rain Events on the South Facing Slopes of Puerto Rico  
Andrew S. Levine, NOAA/NWS, Key West, FL
 P10.4Melting-layer cloud observed over the tropical western Pacific  extended abstract
Kazuaki Yasunaga, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, H. Kubota, H. Okamoto, A. Shimizu, H. Kumagai, M. Katsumata, N. Sugimoto, and I. Matsui
 P10.5The suppression of deep convection in the southwest Caribbean  extended abstract
Jorge Cisneros, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond and D. Martinez
P10.6Time and space variability of convective and stratiform rain in South Florida  
Thomas M. Rickenbach, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and A. Singh
 P10.7The tropical warm pool international cloud experiment (TWP-ICE)  
James H. Mather, PNNL, Richland, WA
 P10.8Impacts of model resolution on the statistical behavior of simulated convection  
Olivier Pauluis, New York Univ., New York, NY; and S. T. Garner
P10.9Numerical simulation of tropical convective systems during TOGA COARE IOP using ARPS mesoscale model  
Jae-Young Byon, METRI/Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and G. H. Lim
 P10.10Synoptic variability of the tropical convection over Central Africa  
Thi Thuy Hanh Nguyen, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Paris, France; and J. P. Duvel
 P10.11Diurnal variation of radar echoes and their possible role of preconditioning the atmospheric humidity  extended abstract
Tomoki Ushiyama, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and R. Shirooka, H. Kubota, T. Chuda, K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, H. Yamada, M. Fujita, N. Satoh, K. K. Reddy, and H. Uyeda
 P10.12A global, 2-hourly atmospheric precipitable water dataset from ground-based GPS measurements for diurnal cycle studies  
Junhong Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Zhang and A. Dai
 P10.13The diurnal cycle and propagation of deep convective clouds in Africa  extended abstract
Arlene Laing, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and V. Levizzani and R. E. Carbone
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 11 Ocean-Atmosphere
P11.1The combined daily cycle of the upper ocean and lower troposphere over the East Pacific Cold Tongue  
Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and M. F. Cronin and N. A. Bond
 P11.2Sea surface temperature signatures of oceanic internal waves in low winds  extended abstract
J. Tom Farrar, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and C. J. Zappa, R. Weller, and A. T. Jessup
 P11.3Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Perturbations Associated with Intraseasonal Oscillations of the Tropical Convection  
Jean-Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météotrologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. Vialard
 P11.4Interannual Variability of Surface heat fluxes and upper ocean under stratus cloud decks in Souteast Pacific  extended abstract
Toshiaki Shinoda, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
 P11.5Idealized hotspot experiments with a general circulation model  
Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and A. H. Sobel
 P11.6Dynamics of the Indian Ocean response to atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations  
Sara Vieira, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and E. Di Lorenzo and P. J. Webster
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 12 Marine Boundary Layer
 P12.1Air-sea fluxes in Hurricane Frances (2004) from dropsonde data and a coupled model  
Mélicie Desflots, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen and W. Zhao
 P12.2Toward an Emperical Relationship for the Dynamical Reponse of the 26 C Isotherm to TC Speed and Intensity  
Elizabeth M. Minter, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and H. R. Winterbottom
P12.3Toward an empirical relationship between TC intensity, TC motion, and the depth of the 26C isotherm  
Elizabeth M. Minter, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and H. R. Winterbottom, C. A. Clayson, and R. E. Hart
 P12.4Wind patterns in FNL and MM5 simulations during the EPIC2001 project  extended abstract
Julio C. Marin, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, DF, Mexico; and D. Raymond and G. B. Raga
 P12.5Frictional decoupling and the inertial oscillation in stable marine atmospheric boundary layers  extended abstract
Costas Helmis, Univ. of Athens, Athens, Greece; and Q. Wang, G. Sgouros, and S. Wang
 P12.6The dynamics of the shallow circulation and its associated moisture transport  
David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang
 P12.7Two-way coupled mesoscale air-sea interaction in hurricane Frances (2004) and Katrina (2005)  
Hao Jin, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, and Y. Jin
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 2 The North American Monsoon
 P2.1Intercomparison of Diurnal Variability of Rainfall Retrieved from PERSIANN-CCS and NAME NERN Gage Measurements in North American Monsoon (NAM) area  
Jiangtao Cheng, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and Y. Hong, X. Gao, K. L. Hsu, and S. Sorooshian
 P2.2Diurnal cycle of sea surface winds and temperatures during the 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment  extended abstract
Brian D. McNoldy, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski and R. H. Johnson
 P2.3The contribution of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones to the warn season rainfall climatology of the southwestern United States  
Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Dickinson and L. F. Bosart
 P2.4The impact of tropical cyclone remnants on the rainfall of the North American southwest region  extended abstract
Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and D. Szenasi
 P2.5On the Relationship Between Horizontal Organization of Precipitating Systems, Easterly Waves and Gulf Surges  
Gustavo Pereira, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge
 P2.6Interannual variability of near-coastal eastern Pacific tropical cyclones  extended abstract
David S. Gutzler, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and E. A. Ritchie, A. V. Douglas, and M. D. Lewis
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 3 Tropical Cyclone Genesis
P3.1Climatological Analysis and Prognosis of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific on the Background of Global Warming  
Yongping Li Sr., Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China
 P3.2What is the trigger for tropical cyclogenesis?  
David S. Nolan, Rosenstiel School, Miami, FL
 P3.3A numerical study of near-equatorial genesis of Typhoon Vamei  
Christopher R. S. Chambers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li
 P3.4Tropical cyclone energy dispersion in a three-timension model: upper tropospheric influence  
Xuyang Ge, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li
 P3.5Kinetic energy efficiencies of idealized developing tropical cyclones  extended abstract
Daniel P. Stern, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan
 P3.6roles of cloud physics in development of tropical cyclone  
Masahiro Sawada, Tohoku university, sendai, miyagi, Japan; and T. Iwasaki and S. Weiming
 P3.7The development of QuikSCAT-derived surface vorticity during tropical cyclogenesis  
Elizabeth M. Minter, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida; and P. D. Reasor and M. A. Bourassa
 P3.9Cyclogenesis and Tropical Transition in decaying frontal zones  
Michelle L. Stewart, COAPS, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa
 P3.10Coherent disturbances in the tropics: Climatology, vertical structure and relationship with tropical cyclones  
Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari
 P3.11Hurricane genesis study using WRF  
Nelsie A. Ramos, Howard University, Washington, DC
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 4 Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity
 P4.1Consensus Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Intensity using Integrated Multispectral (IR and MW) Satellite Observations  extended abstract
Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. C. Herndon, J. Kossin, J. Hawkins, and M. DeMaria
 P4.2The intensification of cyclones from asymmetric heating revisited: energetics and weakly nonlinear effects  extended abstract
Yumin Moon, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan
 P4.3The Influence of Multi-Level Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclones  
Brian H. Tang, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel
P4.4Intensity change of simulated tropical cyclones  
Young C. Kwon, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank
 P4.5A Recalculation of MPI Using Upper—Ocean Depth—Averaged temperatures: climatology and Case Studies  
Michael C. Watson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart
 P4.6The Operational Challenges of Forecasting TC Intensity Change in the Presence of Dry Air and Strong Vertical Shear  extended abstract
Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. D. Knabb
 P4.7The impact of environmental dry air and shear on the intensity of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) before landfall  
Steven E. Feuer, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion, J. Kaplan, and S. B. Goldenberg
 P4.8The role of environmental inertial stability in tropical cyclone intensification: Symmetric environment  
Eric D. Rappin, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. C. Morgan and G. J. Tripoli
 P4.9Nonlinear interaction of axisymmetric circulation and nonaxisymmetric disturbances in hurricanes  
Zhao Yu Sr., Tianjin Meteorological Institutation, Tianjin, China; and L. Xiaoying
 P4.10Doppler radar investigations of the inner core of Typhoon Songda (2004): Polygonal/ elliptical eyewalls, eye contraction, and small-scale spiral bands  extended abstract
Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and W. Mashiko
 P4.11Gravity wave-like structures observed in onshore typhoon boundary layer of Typhoon Kirogi (2000)  extended abstract
Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Irie
 P4.12Tropical Cyclone Wind Characteristics for the Bangladesh Coast Using Monte Carlo Simulation  extended abstract
Tanveerul Islam, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson
 P4.13Analysis and Detection of Tornadoes Associated with Hurricane Emily  extended abstract
Kurt M. Van Speybroeck, NWS, Brownsville, TX; and M. Martin, Jr., A. Partick, and J. Haro
 P4.14Investigating the boundary layer wind structure in numerically simulated landfalling hurricanes  
John Walker, University of South Alabama, Moble, AL; and S. K. Kimball
 P4.15Shear-Induced Vertical Circulations in Tropical Cyclones  
Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and C. Q. Kieu
 P4.16A cloud-resolving simulation of Typhoon Rusa (2002) : Polygonal eyewall and mesovortices structure  extended abstract
Wataru Mashiko, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan
 P4.17Dynamic Characteristics of Typhoon Vortex Spiral Wave and Its Translation: A Diagnostic Analysis  
Xiangde Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, P. R. China, China; and S. Zhang, L. Chen, and F. Wei
 P4.18What Sets a Hurricane's Radius of Maximum Wind?  
Agnieszka A. S. Mrowiec, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. T. Garner and O. Pauluis
 P4.19Validation of QuikSCAT wind retrievals in hurricanes  
Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and D. G. Long and F. J. Wentz
P4.20An alternate method for extracting wind structure guidance from numerical models  
Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
 P4.21A study on the intensity change of typhoon Nakri (0208) - observation and GDAPS data analysis  extended abstract
Baek-Jo Kim, MRI, Seoul, South Korea; and K. Kang, C. H. Cho, and H. S. Chung
 P4.22Effects of Landfall location and teh approach angle of a cyclone encountering a mesoscale mountain range  extended abstract
Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. C. Savage and C. M. Hill
 P4.23A closer look at tropical cyclones in vertical shear flow: Diabatic heating and vortex resliency  
Paul D. Reasor, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. D. Eastin and D. S. Nolan
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 5 Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Prediction
 P5.1Application of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit products to NOGAPS hurricane initialization  
Bing Fu, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li, M. S. Peng, T. Zhu, F. Weng, and T. F. Hogan
 P5.2Impact of satellite observations and forecast model improvements on tropical cyclone track forecasts  extended abstract
James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Hogan
 P5.3An internal tropical cyclone tracker for numerical models  
Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin
 P5.4The sensitivity of hurricane simulations to the distribution of vertical levels  extended abstract
F. Carroll Dougherty, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball
 P5.5Improving Hurricane Visualization  
Henry R. Winterbottom, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou and G. Erlebacher
 P5.6Evaluation of a tropical cyclone tracker for operational use with the COAMPS© regional model  extended abstract
Jeff Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and A. Hergert and C. Dickerman
P5.7Satellite Imagery Display and Analysis System (SIDAS): Tropical Cyclone Applications at the Air Force Weather Agency  
Paul J. McCrone, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and C. R. Holliday
 P5.8A recent history of the GFDN Tropical Cyclone Forecast Model  extended abstract
Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and C. Dickerman
 P5.9Test of a mesoscale model over the south west Indian ocean for cyclones analysis and prediction  extended abstract
Samuel Westrelin, Météo-France, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France; and F. Ghislain, L. Berre, and J. -. M. Willemet
 P5.10Assessment of the Doppler Radar for Airport Weather (DRAW) system in Japan as a research tool for studying typhoon  extended abstract
Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan
 P5.11Two cases illustrating limitations in forecasting tropical cyclones  extended abstract
Philippe Caroff, Météo-France, La Réunion, France; and A. C. Fontan
 P5.12Improvements in integrated satellite reconnaissance tropical cyclone fix accuracy  
Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Tiyan, Guam; and T. P. Hendricks, J. A. Gibbs, and M. A. Lander
 P5.13Hurricane Relocation in Global Ensemble Forecast System  extended abstract
Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord, N. Surgi, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Z. Toth, and T. Marchok
 P5.14The Sensitivity of WRF Simulations of Hurricane Ivan to Choice of Cumulus Parameterization  extended abstract
Megan S. Gentry, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
P5.15The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): Progress and future plans  
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. G. Jiing, R. D. Knabb, S. T. Murillo, and W. R. Seguin
 P5.16Prediction of trends of tropical storms in the North Atlantic basin  extended abstract
Nazario D. Ramirez, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico; and J. M. Castro, J. Gonzalez, and M. Angeles
 P5.17Assimilating Rain-Affected Microwave Radiances Withing Tropical Cyclones Using the COAMPS Adjoint Model  
Clark M. Amerault, NRL, Monterey, CA
P5.18Effects of cloud microphysical processes on hurricane intensification: WRF simulations of Hurricane Dennis (2005)  
Eric Schneider, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar, B. F. Jewett, M. Gilmore, R. E. Hood, and G. M. Heymsfield
 P5.19A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Hydrometeor Profiles from TRMM, Airborne Radar, and High-resolution simulations  extended abstract
Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, F. Marks, K. Valde, and S. S. Chen
 P5.20Spatial and temporal variability of North Atlantic hurricane tracks  
Tingzhuang Yan, Dept. of Marine. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NC State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie, L. J. Pietrafesa, and T. R. Karl
 P5.21Application of stochastic and deterministic modeling to hurricane wind risk assessment  extended abstract
Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and S. Ravela, E. Vivant, and C. Risi
 P5.22Graphical mapping of tropical cyclone forecast wind probabilities worldwide  extended abstract
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and P. Yuen
 P5.23Seasonal prediction of typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific basin  
Adam S. Lea, Department of Space & Climate Physics, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders
 P5.24Temporal Variance of Typhoon Disasters in Recent Six Centuries in Shanghai and Preventing ,Mitigating Strategies  
Ming Xu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and Q. Yang, Y. Duan, and M. Ying
 P5.25Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Storms (Hurricanes)  
Rouzbeh Nazari, NOAA-CREST, College (CCNY) at the City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY; and S. Mahani and R. Khanbilvardi
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 6 Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
 P6.1The extratropical transition of Tropical Storm Ophelia (2005): Summary of forecasts and meteorological observations  extended abstract
Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
 P6.2Medium-range to seasonal precursor conditions to higher latitude landfalls of extratropically transitioning hurricanes  extended abstract
Clark Evans, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart
 P6.3Using ERA40 in Cyclone Phase Space to refine the classification of historical tropical storms  extended abstract
Danielle Manning, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart
 P6.4ERA40 and SSMI precipitation composites for cyclone phase space evolutions of extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones  
Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. N. Maue
 P6.5Warm seclusion cyclone climatology  
Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart
 P6.6ET frontal/surface wind evolution observed by QuikSCAT  
Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
 P6.7Predictability associated with the downstream impacts of the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones  extended abstract
Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. Anwender and S. Jones
 P6.8Structural changes of low level wind field of tropical cyclones in idealised extratropical transition scenarios  
Michael Riemer, Universität Karlsruhe, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Hofheinz and S. C. Jones
 P6.9Forecasting and Adaptive Observing Issues in Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones  
David E. Kofron, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. D. Aberson and S. J. Majumdar
 P6.10Synoptic Composites of the Extratropical Transition Lifecycle of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Factors Determining Post-Transition Evolution  
Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans and C. Evans
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 7 The 2005 Atlantic Season
 P7.1Summary of Texas Tech University's hurricanes at landfall project 2005  extended abstract
Ian M. Giammanco, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder and B. P. Edwards
 P7.2Evaluation of the AODT v6.4.2 in an operational setting during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season  
Michael A. Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD
 P7.3A comparison of targeting techniques for 2005 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones  extended abstract
Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and C. C. Wu, S. J. Majumdar, and S. D. Aberson
 P7.4Hurricane Ivan Damage Survey  extended abstract
Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX
 P7.5Hurricane Katrina Damage Survey  extended abstract
Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX
 P7.6The University of South Alabama Mesonet and data collected during the 2005 Hurricane Season  
Jason Holmes, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball and K. Blackwell
 P7.8Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) with the 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer  
Bo-Wen Shen, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Atlas, O. Reale, S. J. Lin, J. D. Chern, J. Chang, and C. E. Henze
 P7.9Ensemble analyses and predictions of Hurricane Katrina  
Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim
 P7.10Eyewall evolution of Hurricane Katrina near landfall using NEXRAD reflectivity and radial velocity data  extended abstract
Kimberly D. Campo, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and T. M. Rickenbach
 P7.11Mesoscale Model Investigation of Ocean-Atmospheric Interactions and Intensity Change Associated with Hurricane Katrina Land Fall over Louisiana-Mississippi  
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and H. Chekuru, A. Surakanti, and G. S. Holmes
 P7.12Synthesis of common structure features at landfall in Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma using real-time airborne and ground-based observations  
Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. F. Gamache, P. P. Dodge, M. D. Powell, F. D. Marks, and R. M. Atlas
 P7.13The impact of the Loop Current on the GFDL/URI coupled hurricane-ocean model intensity forecasts of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma in the Gulf of Mexico  
Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and B. Thomas and A. Falkovich
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 8 Tropical Waves and Intraseasonal Variability
 P8.1Atmospheric intraseasonal variability and the seasonal cycle over tropical Indo-Pacific region  
Hugo Bellenger, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. P. Duvel
 P8.2Tropical intraseasonal variability in 22 IPCC, DEMETER and NCEP global models  
Jia-Lin Lin, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
 P8.3Precipitation structures and atmospheric waves over the tropical ocean  
Abigail Swann, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and A. H. Sobel, S. E. Yuter, and G. N. Kiladis
P8.4Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves in Observations and Models  
Julia M. Slingo, NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and G. Y. Yang and B. J. Hoskins
 P8.5Mechanisms of large-scale wave organization in a two-dimensional cloud resolving model  
Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES-NOAA/ESRL PSD Climate Diagnostics, Boulder, CO; and B. Mapes and G. N. Kiladis
P8.6Vertical wind distribution in the tropical upper troposphere observed by Equatorial Atmospheric Radar  
Noriyuki Nishi, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan; and M. K. Yamamoto, S. Mori, H. Hashiguchi, and S. Fukao
 P8.7Structure of tropical variability from a vertical mode perspective  
Matthew Peters, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton
 P8.8Mid-summer gap winds and low-level circulation over the Eastern Tropical Pacific  extended abstract
Rosario Romero-Centeno, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), México City (D.F.), México, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; and J. Zavala-Hidalgo and G. B. Raga
 
1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Tuesday, Monterey Grand Ballroom
Poster Session 9 Monsoons
 P9.1An extreme Saharan dust outbreak in spring 2004 and its impact on the onset of the West African monsoon  extended abstract
Peter Knippertz, University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and A. H. Fink
 P9.2The role of equatorial waves in the onset of the 1998 South China Sea summer monsoon  
Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA; and G. N. Kiladis and P. E. Ciesielski
 P9.3Annual Cycle of Southeast Asia—Maritime Continent Rainfall and the Asymmetric Seasonal Transition  
Zhuo Wang, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and C. -. P. Chang
 P9.4SST cooling in the western North Pacific and its association with regional climate variations during summer  
Hiroki Tokinaga, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and Q. Moteki, K. Yasunaga, H. Kubota, and R. Shirooka
 P9.5Axisymmetric and asymmetric monsoons in idealized experiments  
Simona Bordoni, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and T. Schneider and B. Stevens
 
7:00 PM-9:30 PM, Tuesday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Panel Discussion 1 Long-term Variations in Tropical Cyclone Activity - Possible Causes and Effects
Moderator: Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA
7:00 PMIntroductory Remarks  
7:10 PMPD1.2Summary of recent Atlantic tropical cyclone activity  
Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL
7:25 PMPD1.3Tropical Cyclone trends in a Warming Environment  
Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
7:40 PMPD1.4Possible causes of interdecadal variations in tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific  
Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
7:55 PMPD1.5Natural vs. forced variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones  
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
8:10 PMPD1.6Global Warming and Extreme Tropical Cyclones: Are the tropical cyclone databases adequate for detection of climate trends?  
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
8:25 PMRebuttal (5 minutes per presenter)  
8:50 PMOpen discussion  
 
Wednesday, 26 April 2006
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 7A Tropical Cyclone Prediction I - Model Development
Chair: Chris Fogarty, EC, Dartmouth, NS Canada
8:00 AM7A.1Operational tropical cyclone forecast model improvements at FNMOC  
Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA
8:15 AM7A.2The Hurricane WRF (HWRF): Addressing our Nation's next generation hurricane forecast problems  
Naomi Surgi, Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Gopalkrishnan, Q. Liu, R. E. Tuleya, and W. O'Connor
8:30 AM7A.3NCEP's Two-way-Interactive-Moving-Nest NMM-WRF modeling system for Hurricane Forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
S.G. Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Surgi, R. Tuleya, and Z. Janjic
8:45 AM7A.4A summary of recent GFDL model upgrades and plans for 2006  
Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, and I. J. Moon
9:00 AM7A.5Evaluations of the AFWA Weather Research Forecast Model Tropical Cyclone Predictions  extended abstract wrf recording
William R. Ryerson, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry, S. Rugg, and J. Weigel
9:15 AM7A.6A comparison of adaptive observing guidance for Atlantic tropical cyclones  
Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson, C. Bishop, R. Buizza, M. S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds
9:30 AM7A.7Interpretation of tropical cyclone targeting guidance  extended abstract wrf recording
C. A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, S. J. Majumdar, S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, and R. Buizza
9:45 AM7A.8Hurricane WRF model transition to operations at NCEP/EMC: Sensitivity of results to surface fluxes and convection  extended abstract wrf recording
Robert Tuleya, EMC, Norfolk, VA; and N. Surgi, S. Gopalkrishnan, and D. Johnson
 
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 7B Tropical Cyclone Landfall
Chair: Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:00 AM7B.1The perspective below: ground-level reconnaissance in landfalling hurricanes  
Forrest Masters, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black and M. D. Powell
8:15 AM7B.2Topographic effetcs on Typhoon Nari (2001): Verification and sensitivity experiments  extended abstract
Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Jhongli City, Taiwan; and H. L. Huang
8:30 AM7B.3Tropical Cyclone Landfall under the influence of Uniform Flow  extended abstract wrf recording
William C. T. Shum, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan
8:45 AM7B.4Stable Isotopes in Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Ivan (2004)  extended abstract wrf recording
James Robert Lawrence, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and S. D. Gedzelman and K. Y. Kong
9:00 AM7B.5Spatial structure and evolution of 10m winds and rainfall in modeled hurricanes at landfall  
Sytske K. Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL
9:15 AM7B.6Analyses and Modeling of Typhoon Imbudo in 2003  
Gang Fu, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; and Q. Li and Y. Duan
9:30 AM7B.7Collapsing precipitation cores in open-eyewall hurricanes at landfall: Are these cores actually downbursts associated with extreme surface wind gusts?  extended abstract wrf recording
Jason Holmes, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and K. G. Blackwell, R. A. Wade, and C. Holt
9:45 AM7B.8An Examination of the Synoptic and Mesoscale Environments Involved in Tornado Outbreaks from Hurricane's Frances (2004) and Jeanne (2004) over Northeast Coastal Georgia and Southern South Carolina  extended abstract wrf recording
Paul Yura, NOAA/NWSFO, North Charleston, SC; and F. Alsheimer and J. Calderone
 
8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 7C Special Session: CBLAST LOW
Chair: James B. Edson, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT
8:00 AM7C.1Evaluation and continued improvements to the TOGA COARE 3.0 bulk flux algorithm using CBLAST data  extended abstract wrf recording
James B. Edson, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT; and C. W. Fairall
8:15 AM7C.2Contributions of Swell to Air-Sea Interactions under Weak Wind Conditions  
Jielun Sun, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. P. Burns, J. B. Edson, D. Khelif, L. Mahrt, D. Vickers, and T. Hristov
8:30 AM7C.3Evaluation of air-sea bulk formula  extended abstract wrf recording
Dean Vickers, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and L. Mahrt
8:45 AM7C.4Wind, waves and Langmuir circulation during CBLAST-Low  extended abstract
Albert J. Plueddemann, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA
7C.5Very stable marine boundary layers  
Larry Mahrt, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and D. Vickers and J. B. Edson
9:00 AM7C.6Momentum flux structures and statistics in low-wind marine surface layers: Observations and large-eddy simulations  extended abstract wrf recording
Peter P. Sullivan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Edson, T. Hristov, and J. C. McWilliams
9:15 AM7C.7Effects of mesoscale SST fronts on the marine boundary layer  
Eric D. Skyllingstad, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and L. Mahrt and D. Vickers
9:30 AM7C.8Coherent structures in ocean skin temperature variability  extended abstract wrf recording
Christopher J. Zappa, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and A. T. Jessup, J. T. Farrar, and R. A. Weller
 
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, Big Sur
Session 7D Tropical Convection I
Organizer: Courtney Schumaker, Texas A&M, College Station, TX
8:00 AM7D.1On the role of cross-equatorial pressure gradients in the development of tropical convection over the Eastern Pacific Ocean: A Modeling Study  
Violeta Toma, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster
8:15 AM7D.2The origin of systematic errors in the GCM simulation of ITCZ precipitation  extended abstract wrf recording
Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez, J. T. Bacmeister, B. Chen, and L. L. Takacs
8:30 AM7D.3The boundary layer contribution to intertropical convergence zones in the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model framework  
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and J. D. Neelin
8:45 AM7D.4Geographic variability in the export of moist static energy in the Tropical Pacific  
Larissa E. Back, MIT, Cambridge, MA
9:00 AM7D.5Meridional moisture transport by tropical synoptic scale disturbances over the Pacific and Atlantic basins  extended abstract wrf recording
Chia-chi Wang, Department of Earth System Science, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and G. Magnusdottir
9:15 AM7D.6Convectively coupled waves in DARE simulations on an equatorial β-plane  
Zhiming Kuang, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
9:30 AM7D.7A simple, vertically resolved model of tropical disturbances with a humidity closure  extended abstract
Zeljka Fuchs, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond
9:45 AM7D.8Variability of deep convective cloud characteristics across the tropical Pacific  
Michael P. Jensen, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY
 
10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday
Coffee Break
 
10:30 AM-11:45 AM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 8A Tropical Cyclone Prediction II - Initialisation
Chair: Tim Li, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI
10:30 AM8A.1Reanalysis of western Pacific typhoons in 2004 using 4DVAR Data Assimilation Technique  
Xin Zhang, IPRC/SOEST, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li, F. Weng, and C. C. Wu
10:45 AM8A.2Hurricane Initialization in HWRF Model  extended abstract
Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Surgi, S. Lord, W. S. Wu, D. Parrish, S. Gopalakrishnan, J. Waldrop, and J. Gamache
11:00 AM8A.3A new 4D variational assimilation of multiple spaceborne datasets for regional water and energy budgets. An application to the Bret Hurricane  extended abstract wrf recording
Aurelie Bouchard, CETP, Velizy, France; and L. Yvon and V. Nicolas
11:15 AM8A.4Impack of TOMS ozone observations on hurricane track prediction  
Yonghui Wu, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou
11:30 AM8A.5Initializing a Hurricane Vortex with an Ensemble Kalman Filter  
Yongsheng Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 8B tropical cyclone motion
Chair: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
10:30 AM8B.1The effect of interaction between meso-scale system and typhoon on Its motion and structure change  extended abstract
Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Z. Luo
10:45 AM8B.2Targeted Observations of Tropical Cyclone Movement Based on the Adjoint-Derived Sensitivity Steering Vector  extended abstract
Jan-Huey Chen, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, and K. H. Chou
11:00 AM8B.3A study on the Orographic Effects on the Movement of Typhoon Haitang (2005) in East of Taiwan  extended abstract wrf recording
T.-C. Yeh, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, D. S. Chen, and K. N. Huang
11:15 AM8B.4Sensitivity of tropical cyclone forecasts as revealed by singular vectors  extended abstract wrf recording
Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds
11:30 AM8B.5Effects of cumulus parameterizations on tropical cyclone potential vorticity structure and steering flow  extended abstract wrf recording
Brett Thomas Hoover, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan
11:45 AM8B.6A simulation study on pre-landfall erratic track of typhoon Haitang (2005) with GRAPES_TCM  
Hui Yu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and W. Huang, Y. Duan, J. C. L. Chan, and R. Yu
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 8C Special Session: CBLAST LOW II and CBLAST HURRICANE I
Cochairs: James B. Edson, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT; Eric A. D'Asaro, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA
10:30 AM8C.1Rapid transition of boundary layer structure observed on coastal sites  extended abstract wrf recording
Qing Wang, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and C. Helmis, G. Katsouvas, and S. W. Wang
10:45 AM8C.2Numerical Simulation and Modeling of Air-Sea Coupling at Small Scales  
Lian Shen, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and D. K. P. Yue
11:00 AM8C.3A Case Study of Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Boundary Layer Wind Structure  extended abstract wrf recording
Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Q. Wang and J. Cummings
11:15 AM8C.4The hurricane mixing front   wrf recording
Eric A. D'Asaro, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. Harcourt, E. Terrill, P. P. Niiler, and T. B. Sanford
11:30 AM8C.5High-resolution vertical profiling of ocean velocity and water properties under Hurricane Frances in September 2004   wrf recording
Thomas B. Sanford, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and E. A. D'Asaro, J. B. Girton, J. F. Price, and D. C. Webb
11:45 AM8C.6Relaxation of SST in the cool wake of a hurricane  
James F. Price, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and J. Morzel
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, Big Sur
Session 8D Tropical Convection II
Chair: Jean Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Paris France
10:30 AM8D.1High resolution numerical modelling of deep moist convection in statistical equilibrium: buoyancy and velocity scales  extended abstract wrf recording
Antonio Parodi, CIMA, University of Genoa, Savona, Italy; and K. Emanuel
10:45 AM8D.2The Convective cold top and quasi-equilibrium  
Christopher E. Holloway, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin
11:00 AM8D.3Mesoscale aspects in the formation of a pre-cyclogenic African easterly wave near the Ethiopian Highlands  extended abstract
Christopher M. Hill, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. L. Lin
11:15 AM8D.4Convective systems in the Bay of Bengal during the Indian Summer Monsoon  
Wen-wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and H. M. Hsu and M. W. Moncrieff
11:30 AM8D.5The Interaction of Clouds and Dry Air in the Eastern Tropical Pacific  
Paquita Zuidema, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Mapes, J. L. Lin, C. Fairall, and G. Wick
11:45 AM8D.6The MCS life cycle: prototype or building block of larger-scale waves?  
Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. N. Tulich
 
12:00 PM, Wednesday
Lunch Break
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 9A Tropical Cyclone Prediction III - Applications
Chair: Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
1:30 PM9A.1New methods for evaluating rainfall forecasts from operational models for landfalling tropical cyclones  extended abstract wrf recording
Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. Rogers and R. Tuleya
1:45 PM9A.2opical Cyclone Satellite Tutorial Online Through The COMET Program  extended abstract wrf recording
Thomas F. Lee, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. D. Miller, F. J. Turk, J. D. Hawkins, P. Dills, and S. Wang
2:00 PM9A.3Employing Hurricane Wind Probabilities to Enhance Local Forecasts and Improve Guidance for Decision-Makers  extended abstract wrf recording
David Sharp, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and M. Volkmer, P. Santos, G. Rader, and M. Sardi
2:15 PM9A.4An asymmetric hurricane wind model for storm surge and wave forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
Shaowu Bao, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie and L. J. Pietrafesa
2:30 PM9A.5Providing Tropical Cyclone Weather Support to Space Launch Operations  extended abstract wrf recording
Katherine A. Winters, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and J. W. Weems, F. C. Flinn, G. B. Kubat, S. B. Cocks, and J. T. Madura
2:45 PM9A.6How well forecast were the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic and US hurricane seasons?  extended abstract wrf recording
Adam S. Lea, Department of Space & Climate Physics, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 9B Tropical Cyclogenesis I
Chair: Brian J. Gaudet, Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM
1:30 PM9B.1The interaction of tropical cyclones with the Saharan Air Layer: model case studies from 2004  
Sarah Jones, Universität Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany; and N. Lichtenberger and B. Vogel
1:45 PM9B.2Thermodynamic structure of tropical cyclones during genesis  extended abstract wrf recording
Kay L. Shelton, SUNY, Albany, NY
2:00 PM9B.3The Genesis of Hurricane Humberto (2001)  extended abstract wrf recording
Klaus Dolling, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. Barnes
2:15 PM9B.4Understanding the genesis of Hurricane Vince through the surface pressure tendency equation  extended abstract wrf recording
Kwan-yin Kong, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD
2:30 PM9B.5The effect of mid-level moistening on tropical cyclogenesis  extended abstract
Melville Nicholls, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Montgomery
2:45 PM9B.6Statistical analysis of organized cloud clusters on western North Pacific and their warm core structure  extended abstract wrf recording
Kotaro Bessho, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Nakazawa, S. Nishimura, K. Kato, and S. Hoshino
 
1:30 PM-3:05 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 9C Special Session: CBLAST HURRICANE II
Chair: Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
1:30 PM9C.1The Critical Role of Air-Sea Enthalpy and Momentum fluxes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure   wrf recording
Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
1:50 PM9C.2Synthesis of major results from the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer Experiment (CBLAST) in hurricanes (2003–2004)  extended abstract wrf recording
Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. A. D'Asaro, J. R. French, and W. M. Drennan
2:05 PM9C.3CBLAST Wind-Wave Parameterization for Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Models in Hurricane Research and Prediction  
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and W. Zhao, M. Donelan, J. F. Price, E. J. Walsh, and H. Tolman
2:20 PM9C.4Direct Airborne Measurements of Momentum Flux in Hurricanes  extended abstract wrf recording
Jeffrey R. French, NOAA/OAR/ARL, Oak Ridge, TN; and W. M. Drennan, J. A. Zhang, and P. G. Black
2:35 PM9C.5Latent heat fluxes in the hurricane boundary layer  
William M. Drennan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, J. R. French, and P. G. Black
2:50 PM9C.6Estimates of surface enthalpy and momentum fluxes at high winds speeds using the budget residual method: Results from CBLAST   wrf recording
Jeanne Davancens, MIT, Issy les Moulineaux, France; and K. A. Emanuel
 
1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Wednesday, Big Sur
Session 9D Tropical Convection III
Chair: Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
1:30 PM9D.1A Rational Approach to Cumulus Parameterization  extended abstract wrf recording
David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM
1:45 PM9D.2A numerical study of convection in easterly waves using the "Relax to Balance" approximation  extended abstract wrf recording
Sharon L. Sessions, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. Raymond
2:00 PM9D.3Sensitivities of explicity simulated tropical cloud ensembles to their large-scale setting  
Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES-NOAA/ESRL PSD Climate Diagnostics, Boulder, CO; and B. Mapes
2:15 PM9D.4Testing convective parameterizations against tropical measurements of CO, HNO3, O3, and H2O  
Ian A. Folkins, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; and B. M. Sinnhuber
2:30 PM9D.5Multicloud parametrizations for convectively coupled tropical waves  
Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and A. Majda
 
3:00 PM, Wednesday
Coffee Break
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 10A Tropical Cyclone Prediction IV - Landfall
Chair: Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI
3:30 PM10A.1United States landfalling hurricane probability webpage  extended abstract wrf recording
Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
3:45 PM10A.2Pre-Season Prediction of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Frequency  
Lian Xie, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and T. Yan, L. J. Pietrafesa, and T. R. Karl
4:00 PM10A.3Recent results on landfalling hurricanes with the GFDL hurricane-land-ocean coupled system at NCEP  extended abstract wrf recording
Weixing Shen, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. E. Tuleya, N. Surgi, S. J. Lord, K. E. Mitchell, T. P. Marchok, and M. A. Bender
4:15 PM10A.4Mesoscale predictability of tropical storm Allison (2001) during its initiation and landfall  
Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and J. Sippel
4:30 PM10A.5The Impact of the Dropwindsonde Data from DOTSTAR on the Prediction of Typhoon Conson (2004)  extended abstract wrf recording
Wei-Peng Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, and K. H. Chou
4:45 PM10A.6Effect of Determining Initial Conditions by Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation on Storm Surge Forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
S.-Q. Peng, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie
5:00 PM10A.7Forecast errors associated with Hurricane Rita (2005)  
Eyad Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and R. McTaggart-Cowan
5:15 PM10A.8A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity  
P. S. Chu, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and X. Zhao
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 10B Tropical Cyclogenesis II
Chair: Arlene Laing, NCAR, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM10B.1Tropical transition: possible mechanisms and observational needs  
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart
3:45 PM10B.2The role of the occlusion process in the extratropical-to-tropical transition of Atlantic Hurricane Karen  extended abstract wrf recording
Andrew L. Hulme, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin
4:00 PM10B.3The tropical transition of hurricane Alex (2004): An observational perspective  
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, C. A. Davis, and M. T. Montgomery
4:15 PM10B.4Simulation of the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003)   wrf recording
Liguang Wu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Braun and J. Qu
4:30 PM10B.5Vorcity-Based Detection of Tropical Cyclogenesis  extended abstract wrf recording
Michelle M. Hite, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa, P. Cunningham, J. J. O'Brien, and P. D. Reasor
4:45 PM10B.6Generation and propagation of MCCs and a mesovortex associated with an African easterly wave as a precursor of Hurricane Alberto (2000)  extended abstract wrf recording
Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and K. E. Robertson and C. M. Hill
5:00 PM10B.7Evolution of Mesoscale Convective Systems during Tropical Cyclone Formations in the Western North Pacific  extended abstract wrf recording
Jenny S. N. Hui, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. K. W. Cheung, C. S. Lee, and R. L. Elsberry
5:15 PM10B.8Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis—satellite analysis  extended abstract wrf recording
Raymond M. Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO
 
3:30 PM-5:45 PM, Wednesday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 10C Special Session: CBLAST Hurricane III
Chair: Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
3:30 PM10C.1Combining airborne wave observations with WAVEWATCH III model output   wrf recording
Edward J. Walsh, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and C. W. Wright, I. Ginis, Y. Fan, and H. L. Tolman
3:45 PM10C.2Surface wave processes in high winds and hurricanes  
W. Kendall Melville, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. M. Kleiss and L. Romero
4:00 PM10C.3A model of the effect of breaking waves on the air-sea momentum flux  
Tobias Kukulka, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and T. Hara and S. E. Belcher
4:15 PM10C.4In situ measurements of 3D turbulence in Hurricanes Frances and Ivan using a pressure-sphere anemometer  extended abstract wrf recording
Richard M. Eckman, NOAA/ARL, Idaho Falls, ID; and R. J. Dobosy, T. W. Strong, and P. G. Hall
4:30 PM10C.5Tower and Doppler Radar Observations from the Boundary Layer of Hurricanes Isabel (2003) and Frances (2004)  extended abstract wrf recording
Sylvie Lorsolo, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder
4:45 PM10C.6Preliminary Comparison of DOW and In Situ Wind Measurements in Hurricane Rita  extended abstract wrf recording
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, P. Robinson, and F. Masters
5:00 PM10C.7Progress in the study of coherent structures in the hurricane boundary layer  
Ralph C. Foster, APL, Univeristy of Washington, Seattle, WA
5:15 PM10C.8Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations of Tropical Cyclones with the Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler   wrf recording
Daniel Esteban Fernandez, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Jelenak, P. S. Chang, R. F. Contreras, T. Chu, P. Asuzu, and J. Carswell
5:30 PM10C.9High Resolution Airborne Radar Measurements of Hurricane Isabel  extended abstract wrf recording
Robert F. Contreras, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA; and D. Esteban Fernandez, P. S. Chang, and P. G. Black
 
3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, Big Sur
Session 10D Tropical Convection IV
Chair: Stefan N. Tulich, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
3:30 PM10D.1Spectral retrieval of latent heating profiles from TRMM PR data.: Algorithm improvement and heating estimates over tropical ocean regions  extended abstract wrf recording
Shoichi Shige, Osaka Prefecture Univ., Sakai, Osaka, Japan; and Y. N. Takayabu, W. -. K. Tao, and C. L. Shie
3:45 PM10D.2Relating radar-derived cloud populations and the vertical structure of heating in equatorial waves  extended abstract wrf recording
Andrew D. Denno, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND
4:00 PM10D.3Vertical distributions of clouds and radiative heating rates in the tropical western Pacific   wrf recording
James H. Mather, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. A. McFarlane
4:15 PM10D.4A statistical study on the relationship between rain top heights and lightning activity over the global tropics utilizing TRMM PR2A25 and LIS data  
Yukari N. Takayabu, University of Tokyo/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; and C. Yokoyama and T. Ushio
4:30 PM10D.5Estimation of precipitation and latent heating distributions in tropical convection from a combined analysis of passive microwave and spaceborne radar observations  extended abstract
William S. Olson, JCET/Univ of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Grecu, C. L. Shie, and S. A. Braun
4:45 PM10D.6Simulated convective systems using a cloud resolving model: Impact of large-scale temperature and moisture forcing using observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis  extended abstract wrf recording
Chung-Lin Shie, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt and Univ. of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao, A. Y. Hou, and X. Lin
10D.7Application of a new multiscale data assimilation: Estimation of local aerosol fluxes on a two-dimensional atmospheric boundary  
Yu Zou, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
 
Thursday, 27 April 2006
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 11A Tropical Cyclone Prediction V - Track
Chair: Robert E. Tuleya, EMC, Norfolk, VA
8:00 AM11A.1Prediction of tropical cyclone track forecast error for Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma  extended abstract wrf recording
James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA
8:15 AM11A.2Sensitivity of tropical cyclone track forecasts to convective momentum transport in the NOGAPS Emanuel cumulus parameterization  extended abstract wrf recording
Timothy F. Hogan, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Pauley
8:30 AM11A.3The Impact of Dropsonde Data from DOTSTAR on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
Kun-Hsuan Chou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, S. Aberson, M. Peng, and T. Nakazawa
8:45 AM11A.4Improvement of tropical cyclone track forecasting using a model-constrained 3D-Var data assimilation scheme  
Xudong Liang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and B. Wang, J. Chan, Y. Duan, D. Wang, Z. Zeng, and L. Ma
9:00 AM11A.5Impact of AMSU and AMSR-E Measurements on Hurricane Prediction  extended abstract wrf recording
Tong Zhu, Colorado State Univ./CIRA at NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and F. Weng, Q. Liu, and N. Surgi
9:15 AM11A.6Evaluation of causes of large 96-h and 120-h track errors in the western North Pacific  extended abstract wrf recording
Kathryn Anne Payne, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Kehoe, M. A. Boothe, and R. L. Elsberry
9:30 AM11A.7An Experiment on the Impact of Initial Fields and Boundary Conditions on the Typhoon Track Simulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean  extended abstract
Der-Song Chen, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, K. N. Huang, and T. C. Yeh
9:45 AM11A.8Tropical cyclone modeling in a probabilistic framework  extended abstract wrf recording
William E. Lewis, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli
 
8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 11B Tropical Cyclone Structure IV
Chair: Paul E. Roundy, NOAA/CIRES Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO
8:00 AM11B.1Buoyancy and the warm-core structure of hurricanes  
Roger K. Smith, Department of Physics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
8:15 AM11B.2A Lagrangian View of a Simulated Hurricane  
Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. A. Cram, J. Persing, and S. A. Braun
8:30 AM11B.3The Effect of External Forcing on the Structure Change of Tropical Cyclones  extended abstract
Yoshio Kurihara, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Yoshioka
8:45 AM11B.4Wavelike Structure of the Rainbands of a Concentric Eyewall Typhoon Revealed from Doppler Radar Observations  extended abstract
Ben J.-D. Jou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and R. F. Liu
9:00 AM11B.5Three-dimensional hurricane structure change prior to landfall as revealed by automated airborne Doppler analyses  
John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black and F. D. Marks Jr.
9:15 AM11B.6Effects of land-sea roughness contrast on tropical cyclone winds  extended abstract wrf recording
Martin L. M. Wong, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan
9:30 AM11B.7Waves in a cloudy vortex  extended abstract
David A. Schecter, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
 
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Big Sur
Session 11C Tropical Cyclone - Large Scale Interaction
Chair: Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
8:00 AM11C.1Incorporation of equatorial wave modes into tropical synoptic meteorology: Is It worth the trouble?  extended abstract
John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro and C. Schreck
8:15 AM11C.2Summertime Synoptic-scale Variability over the Tropical Western Pacific: Role of Extratropical Forcing  
Chi-Yung Francis Tam, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li
8:30 AM11C.3Comparison of techniques for isolating equatorial Rossby waves in synoptic studies  extended abstract wrf recording
Carl Schreck III, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
8:45 AM11C.4The influence of tropical cyclone outflow on the Northern Hemisphere subtropical and tropical general circulation  extended abstract wrf recording
Ross A. Lazear, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan
9:00 AM11C.5Role of Large-scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Landfall in Japan  extended abstract wrf recording
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Rajendran
9:15 AM11C.6Possible feedback of tropical cyclone on climate variability  extended abstract
H.-H. Hsu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and A. K. Lo, C. H. Hung, and C. C. Wu
9:30 AM11C.7A Study of the Relationship between Mid-Tropospheric Large-scale Circulation Pattern and US Landfall Hurricane Activities  
Shangyao Nong, Applied Insurance Research, Inc., Boston, MA
9:45 AM11C.8Hunting for Saharan air with the NOAA G-IV jet  extended abstract wrf recording
Jason P. Dunion, University of Miami/RSMAS/CIMAS - NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. D. Hawkins and C. S. Velden
 
8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 11D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global Observations I
Chair: Song Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, Greenbelt, MD
8:00 AMWelcoming Remarks  
8:05 AM11D.2Diurnal variation of tropical rain revealed by TRMM  
Kenji Nakamura, Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
8:30 AM11D.3Diurnal Variability of Precipitation: Multiple Modes & Ambiguities  
Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Yang
8:45 AM11D.4Ensemble Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Rainfall Diurnal Cycle from TRMM  
Song Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, Greenbelt, MD; and E. A. Smith
9:00 AM11D.5Eight Years of TRMM Data: Exploring Regional Mechanisms Behind the Diurnal Cycle  
Stephen W. Nesbitt, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. Cifelli, S. A. Rutledge, C. Liu, and E. J. Zipser
9:15 AM11D.6Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Deep Convection and Anvil Clouds: Global Distribution Using 6 years of TRMM radar and IR data  extended abstract wrf recording
Chuntao Liu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser
9:30 AM11D.7Physical processes controlling warm-season precipitation diurnal cycle in the central U.S  
Junhong Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Dai, D. Parsons, and X. Z. Liang
9:45 AM11D.8Satellite Estimates of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation  
Andrew J. Negri, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler and M. Manyin
 
10:00 AM, Thursday
Coffee Break
 
10:25 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 12D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global and Regional Modeling I
Chair: Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
10:25 AM12D.1Spatial-temporal organization of convection and the diurnal variability of precipitation: A U.S. Continent study  
Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO
10:50 AM12D.2The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation over the Globe: Observations vs. Model Simulations  
Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO
11:15 AM12D.3Tropical rainfall diurnal variation in a 20km-mesh atmospheric GCM  
Osamu Arakawa, Advanced Earth Science & Technology Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and A. Kitoh
11:30 AM12D.4Prediction of the diurnal change of precipitation using a multi model superensemble and TRMM data sets  extended abstract wrf recording
T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and C. Gnanaseelan and A. Chakraborty
11:45 AM12D.5Modeling rainfall diurnal variation of Northern American monsoon core using different spatial resolution  extended abstract wrf recording
Jialun Li, University of California, Irvine, California; and X. Gao, K. L. Hsu, and S. Sorooshian
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 12A Special Session:- RAINEX I
Chair: Robert A. Houze, Jr., University of Washington, Seattle, WA
10:30 AM12A.1Overview of RAINEX Flight Program  
Robert A. Houze Jr., University of Washington, Seattle, WA
10:45 AM12A.2Overview of RAINEX Modeling of 2005 Hurricanes  
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
11:00 AM12A.3RAINEX Overview – Airborne Doppler Radar Data  
Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO
11:15 AM12A.4Real-Time High-Resolution MM5 and WRF Forecasts during RAINEX  extended abstract wrf recording
John P. Cangialosi, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, W. Zhao, W. Wang, and J. Michalakas
11:30 AM12A.5Rainbands and secondary eye wall formation as observed in RAINEX  extended abstract wrf recording
Derek Ortt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen
11:45 AM12A.6Tropical cyclone dynamics deduced from ensemble state estimation  
Gregory J. Hakim, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. D. Torn
 
10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 12B Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Fresh-Water Flooding
Chair: Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD
10:30 AM12B.1Difference of Rainfall Distribution for Tropical Cyclones Over Land and Ocean and Rainfall Potential Derived from Satellite Observations and Its Implication on Hurricane Landfall Flooding Prediction  extended abstract wrf recording
Haiyan Jiang, Univ of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and J. B. Halverson and J. Simpson
10:45 AM12B.2Effect of ocean surface waves on storm surge and coastal flooding  extended abstract wrf recording
Huiqing Liu, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie, L. J. Pietrafesa, and M. Peng
11:00 AM12B.3Factors that contributed to the Hurricane Gaston flooding event in Richmond, Virginia  extended abstract wrf recording
Zachary G. Brown, Kentucky Mesonet, Bowling Green, KY; and Y. -. L. Lin and M. L. Kaplan
11:15 AM12B.4A look at Tropical Storm Gaston flooding in Virginia  extended abstract wrf recording
John Billet, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA VA; and K. Lynch
11:30 AM12B.5The Effect of Shear and Topography on Rainfall Forecasting with R-CLIPER  extended abstract wrf recording
Manuel Lonfat, Risk Management Solutions Ltd., London, United Kingdom; and R. Rogers, F. D. Marks, T. Marchok, and A. Boissonnade
11:45 AM12B.6Unexpectedly heavy rainfall due to mesoscale features Induced by a landfalling and non-transitioning tropical storm  
Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari
 
10:30 AM-12:15 PM, Thursday, Big Sur
Session 12C Special Session: Predictability of the North American monsoon and NAME
Chair: Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO
10:30 AM12C.1Influence of the North American Monsoon Experiment 2004 enhanced soundings on NCEP operational analyses  
Kingtse Mo, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Higgins and J. Woollen
10:45 AM12C.2Analysis of the 13 July gulf surge event during the 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment  extended abstract wrf recording
Peter J. Rogers, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson
11:00 AM12C.3On the structure and efficacy of gulf surges  
Simona Bordoni, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and B. Stevens
11:15 AM12C.4Analysis of Heat and Moisture Budgets from the NAME Enhanced Sounding Network  extended abstract wrf recording
Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson
11:30 AM12C.5NAME CPT Project - Issues for warm season prediction  
J. E. Schemm, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. -. H. Y. Soo-Hyun.Yoo@noaa.gov, L. W. Lindsey.N.Williams@noaa.gov, and D. S. Gutzler
11:45 AM12C.6Seasonal and interannual variability of moisture fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea and associations with rainfall  
Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez, CIMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. B. Enfield and C. Zhang
12:00 PM12C.7Variations in the daily cycle of winds along the east coast of the Gulf of Mexico  
Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and L. M. Rodriguez-Manzanet and R. H. Johnson
 
12:00 PM, Thursday
Lunch Break
 
1:25 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 13D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global Observations II
Chair: Kenji Nakamura, Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya Japan
1:25 PM13D.1The diurnal cycle of warm season rainfall frequency over continents  extended abstract wrf recording
R. E. Carbone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, A. Laing, T. Lang, T. D. Keenan, J. D. Tuttle, and C. -. C. Wang
1:50 PM13D.2Diurnal variability of vertical structure from a TRMM passive microwave "virtual radar" retrieval  
Dennis J. Boccippio, NASA / Marshall Space Flight Center XD-11, Huntsville, AL; and W. A. Petersen and D. Cecil
2:15 PM13D.3Diurnal cycle of clouds and how they affect polar orbiting satellite data  extended abstract wrf recording
Donald Wylie, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
2:30 PM13D.4Diurnal variations in tropical diabatic heating profiles  
Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and M. H. Zhang and P. E. Ciesielski
2:45 PM13D.5The impact of rainfall assimilation on the NASA GEOS Reanalysis: Diurnal variability of the hydrologic cycle and radiative fluxes  
Xin Lin, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Hou and S. Zhang
 
1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 13A Special Session: RAINEX II
Chair: Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
13A.1Hurricane Katrina on 25 August 2005 : airborne radar observations and numerical modeling  
Frank Roux, Laboratoire d'Aerologie (CNRS-UPS), Toulouse, France
1:30 PM13A.2Evidence and impacts of dry air intrusion in Hurricane Ophelia: Observations from RAINEX  
Bradley F. Smull, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze
1:45 PM13A.3Rainband structures observed in RAINEX  
Deanna A. Hence, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze
2:00 PM13A.4Aircraft observations of concentric eyewall formation and evolution in Hurricane Rita on 22 September 2005  
Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and K. L. Corbosiero, J. Molinari, and R. Rogers
2:15 PM13A.5Secondary eyewall structure in Hurricane Rita: Results from RAINEX  
Jasmine Cetrone, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze and M. M. Bell
2:30 PM13A.6Observed vorticity evolution in Hurricane Rita (2005)  
Michael Bell, NCAR/EOL & Colorado State University, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Lee and J. Cetrone
 
1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 13B Tropical Cyclogenesis III
Chair: Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki Japan
1:30 PM13B.1Tropical cyclogenesis as revealed by the NOGAPS analysis  extended abstract wrf recording
Bing Fu, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. S. Peng, T. Li, and T. F. Hogan
1:45 PM13B.2Rossby wave radiation from non-translating and from moving vortices  
Kyle D. Krouse, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and L. M. Polvani
2:00 PM13B.3Objectively Determined Model-Derived Parameters associated with Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation  extended abstract wrf recording
Christy Cowan, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. Harr and G. Elliott
2:15 PM13B.4Numerical simulations of the genesis of Hurricane Gabrielle (2001)  
Kate Musgrave, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. Davis and M. T. Montgomery
2:30 PM13B.5Quantifying morphologic features of remotely-sensed data for its use in a tropical cyclogenesis predictor  extended abstract wrf recording
Miguel Pineros, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie
2:45 PM13B.6Genesis and decay of a tropical storm in strong vertical shear  extended abstract wrf recording
Jaclyn D. Frank, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
 
1:30 PM-2:45 PM, Thursday, Big Sur
Session 13C Ocean-Atmosphere
Chair: Qing Wang, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA
1:30 PM13C.1Surface Turbulent Stress Derived from GPS Dropsondes  
Mark A. Bourassa, COAPS/Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
1:45 PM13C.2The VASCO-CIRENE experiment  extended abstract wrf recording
Jean-Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météotrologie Dynamique, Paris, France; and J. Vialard
2:00 PM13C.3International Ocean Database Management System for the China Seas and Adjacent Ocean (IODBMS)  
Yan Sun, Tianjin Association for Science and Technology, Tianjin 300202, China
2:15 PM13C.4Role of Indian and Pacific Ocean air-sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability  
Renguang Wu, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD; and B. P. Kirtman
2:30 PM13C.5How does the air-sea interaction affect potential climate predictability?  
Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and W. Y. Wu
13C.6High resolution climate modelling of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropics  
Julia M. Slingo, NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
 
3:00 PM, Thursday
Coffee Break
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 14A Tropical Cyclone Prediction VI - Intensity
Chair: Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter United Kingdom
3:30 PM14A.1Tropical cyclone genesis in TC-LAPS: The importance of sufficient net deep convection and system scale cyclonic absolute vorticty  extended abstract
Kevin J. Tory, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and N. E. Davidson and M. T. Montgomery
3:45 PM14A.2Validation of TC-LAPS structure forecasts of some significant 2004–2005 US hurricanes  extended abstract wrf recording
Noel E. Davidson, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and L. J. Rikus, R. A. Dare, C. I. W. Tingwell, and H. C. Weber
4:00 PM14A.3Statistical tropical cyclone intensity forecast improvements using GOES and aircraft reconnaissance data  extended abstract wrf recording
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO
4:15 PM14A.4On the Calculation of Vertical Shear: An Operational Perspective  extended abstract wrf recording
Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and C. Sisko and R. D. Knabb
4:30 PM14A.5Recent updates to SHIPS-MI  extended abstract
Thomas A. Jones, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil
4:45 PM14A.6On the pressure-wind relationship in tropical cyclones  extended abstract wrf recording
Harry C. Weber, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany
5:00 PM14A.7Estimating the likelihood of rapid intensification in the Atlantic and E. Pacific basins using SHIPS model data  extended abstract wrf recording
John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria
5:15 PM14A.8Equilibrium translation model – a key to prediction of tropical hurricane intensity  extended abstract
Irakli G. Shekriladze, Georgian Technical Univ., Tbilisi, Georgia
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 14B Tropical Cyclogenesis IV
Chair: Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
3:30 PM14B.1A very high resolution numerical simulation and analysis of vortical hot towers and their aggregate effects in the genesis of Hurricane Diana (1984)  
J. Marc Hidalgo, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
3:45 PM14B.2Convectively Generated Hot, Vortical Towers During the Genesis of Typhoon Nari (2001)  
Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. Tian and A. Wang
4:00 PM14B.3Contributions of the African Easterly Waves and the Northern Vortices to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation  extended abstract wrf recording
Jodi Beattie, Department of Physics, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and R. L. Elsberry and P. A. Harr
4:15 PM14B.4A case study of a continental mesoscale convective vortex that developed attributes of an incipient tropical disturbance  
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
4:30 PM14B.5An evaluation and comparison of predictions of tropical cyclogenesis by three global forecast models  extended abstract wrf recording
Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and P. A. Harr, L. A. Avila, J. G. Jiing, and G. Elliott
4:45 PM14B.6Characteristics of the early stages of tropical cyclones as viewed with microwave data  
Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Tiyan, Guam; and M. Lander
5:00 PM14B.7Axisymmetric tropical cyclogenesis via a single convective ring  extended abstract
Thomas Frisius, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
14B.8An Overview of the Stages of Genesis of Tropical Storm Gert  
Krystal M. Valde, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and R. F. Rogers
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Big Sur
Session 14C Climate Dynamics and Hydrologic Cycle
Chair: Harry H. Hendon, BMRC, Melbounre, Vic. Australia
3:30 PM14C.1Who Does the Vertical Transport of Heat in the Tropical Pacific: ENSO or Hurricanes?  
De-Zheng Sun, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
3:45 PM14C.2Eddy-Influences on Hadley Circulations: Theory and Simulations with an Idealized GCM  
Tapio Schneider, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and C. C. Walker
4:00 PM14C.3Teleconnections from Tropics to Northern Extratropics Through a Southerly Conveyor  
Zhuo Wang, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and C. -. P. Chang, B. Wang, and F. F. Jin
4:15 PM14C.4Nature of Asian monsoon precipitation  
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and C. D. Hoyos, C. Schumacher, and R. A. Houze
4:30 PM14C.5Cloud microphysics, dynamics, and free tropospheric water vapor  
Steven C. Sherwood, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and C. Meyer, E. R. Kursinski, and W. G. Read
4:45 PM14C.6Diurnal variation of upper tropospheric humidity over the tropics and its relations to convective activities  extended abstract
Eui-Seok Chung, Seoul National Univ., Seoul, South Korea; and B. J. Sohn and J. Schmetz
5:00 PM14C.7Evaluation of Tropical Upper Troposphere hydrological Processes derived from ECMWF analyses and Forecast with EOS MLS Measurements  
Jui-Lin Li, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, J. H. Jiang, and A. M. Tompkins
5:15 PM14C.8Variations of tropical deep convective systems with sea surface temperature and precipitation efficiency  
Bing Lin, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and A. Fan, L. H. Chambers, and P. Minnis
 
3:30 PM-5:30 PM, Thursday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 14D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Regional Observations
Chair: Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI
3:30 PMIntroductory Remarks  
3:35 PM14D.2Gravity wave mechanisms in propagating diurnal convection  
Brian Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
4:00 PM14D.3Diurnal propagating precipitating systems to the north of New Guinea Island: In-situ observation of internal structure and ambient atmosphere  extended abstract
Masaki Katsumata, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and K. Yoneyama and H. Kubota
4:15 PM14D.4Observational strategy for diurnal to intraseasonal rainfall variability study over Sumatera Island using the JEPP/GEOSS radar-profiler network  extended abstract wrf recording
Shuichi Mori, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and H. Jun-Ichi, T. Sasaki, P. Wu, and M. D. Yamanaka
4:30 PM14D.5The diurnal cycle of convection over the northern South China Sea  extended abstract wrf recording
Steven L. Aves, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson
4:45 PM14D.6Diurnal variation of precipitation observed over Palau in the western Pacific  extended abstract wrf recording
Hisayuki Kubota, Institute of Observational Research for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and R. Shirooka, T. Ushiyama, T. Chuda, K. K. Reddy, M. Katsumata, K. Yoneyama, K. Yasunaga, Q. Moteki, N. Sato, M. Fujita, and N. Suginohara
5:00 PM14D.7Diurnal cycle characteristics of precipitation in the east Pacific  
Robert Cifelli, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and S. W. Nesbitt, S. A. Rutledge, W. A. Petersen, and S. E. Yuter
5:15 PM14D.8Diurnal variation of clouds and precipitation over tropical South America: interactions between propagating and in-situ cloud systems  
Thomas M. Rickenbach, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA
 
7:00 PM, Thursday
Shuttle Buses from the Hyatt to the Monterey Bay Aquarium
 
7:30 PM, Thursday
Strolling Reception: The Monterey Bay Aquarium
 
Friday, 28 April 2006
8:25 AM-9:45 AM, Friday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 15D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global and Regional modeling II
Chair: Eric A. Smith, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
8:25 AM15D.1Diurnal cycles of precipitation in observations and GCM simulations  
Kenneth P. Bowman, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
8:50 AM15D.2Diurnal variations of precipitation over land: A challenge to models  
D. A. Randall, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
9:15 AM15D.3Diurnal Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity  
Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
15D.4The diurnal cycle observed by Meteosat-8 and simulated by a climate model  
Anthony Slingo, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and R. Comer and R. Allan
9:30 AM15D.5Diurnal Variation of Global Precipitation and Water-Vapor Budget  
Tsing-Chang (Mike) Chen, Iowa State University, Ames, IA
 
8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 15A Tropical Cyclone Prediction VII - Intensity
Chair: Harry C. Weber, University of Munich, Munich Germany
8:30 AM15A.1Accuracy of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts in the North Pacific and Atlantic  extended abstract wrf recording
Mark A. Boothe, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and T. Lambert, J. Blackerby, and R. L. Elsberry
8:45 AM15A.2A Statistical Atlantic Hurricane Model to Forecast 6-hour and 24-hour Intensity Changes  
Kevin T. Law, Marshall University, Huntington, WV
9:00 AM15A.3A statistical intensity model consensus for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center  extended abstract wrf recording
Charles R. Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. A. Knaff and M. DeMaria
9:15 AM15A.4Use of radar data for TC initialization and predictions  extended abstract
Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, W. C. Lee, and W. Wang
9:30 AM15A.5STEADY-STATE HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE WRF MODEL: COMPARISON TO MPI THEORY AND SENSITIVITY TO PBL AND SURFACE FLUX PARAMETERIZATION  extended abstract wrf recording
Kevin A. Hill, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
9:45 AM15A.6Enhanced Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with MODIS and OLS  extended abstract wrf recording
Steven D. Miller, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Hawkins, K. Richardson, T. F. Lee, and F. J. Turk
 
8:30 AM-10:15 AM, Friday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 15B Tropical Cyclone Intensity III
Chair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA
8:30 AM15B.1Internal dynamic control of hurricane intensity change: The dual nature of potential vorticity mixing  extended abstract wrf recording
James Kossin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. H. Schubert, C. M. Rozoff, and P. J. Mulero
8:45 AM15B.2The role of environmental inertial stability in tropical cyclone intensification: Asymmetric environment  
Eric D. Rappin, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and G. J. Tripoli and M. C. Morgan
9:00 AM15B.3Robust and interpretable statistical models for predicting the intensification of tropical cyclones  extended abstract wrf recording
Kyriakos C. Chatzidimitriou, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. W. Anderson and M. DeMaria
9:15 AM15B.4Interaction of hurricane and cloud scales: contribution to hurricane intensity  extended abstract wrf recording
L. Stefanova, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. Krishnamurti and S. Pattnaik
9:30 AM15B.5Numerical experiments on the predictability of tropical-cyclone intensification  
Sang Van Nguyen, Department of Physics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith
9:45 AM15B.6Rapid Intensity Change in Hurricane Lili (2002)  extended abstract
Mélicie Desflots, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
10:00 AM15B.7Response of convection to hurricane-like horizontal and vertical shears  extended abstract wrf recording
Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. D. Terwey, M. T. Montgomery, and W. H. Schubert
 
8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Friday, Big Sur
Session 15C Tropical Cyclones and Climate IV - Interannual/Decadal Variability
Chair: David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM
8:30 AM15C.1Mechanisms for El Nino and La Nina induced anomalies in tropical cyclone formation, intensity, and motion in the northwest Pacific  
Tom Murphree, NPS, Monterey, CA; and B. W. Ford
8:45 AM15C.2ENSO and Genesis Potential Index in Reanalysis and AGCMs  extended abstract wrf recording
Suzana J. Camargo, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and K. A. Emanuel and A. H. Sobel
9:00 AM15C.2Variability in global scale circulations and their impacts on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity  extended abstract wrf recording
Mathew Rosencrans, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. Harr
9:15 AM15C.3ENSO and atmospheric energetics along the tropical storm track  extended abstract wrf recording
Pang-chi Hsu, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Tsou and H. -. H. Hsu
9:30 AM15C.4Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity over the eastern North Pacific  extended abstract
Peng Wu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and P. S. Chu
9:45 AM15C.5Interdecadal Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity  extended abstract wrf recording
Kin Sik Liu, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan
 
10:00 AM, Friday
Coffee Break
 
10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Friday, Regency Grand BR 4-6
Session 16A Tropical Cyclone Prediction VIII - Model Sensitivity
Chair: Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA
10:30 AM16A.1Sensitivity of numerical simulations of Hurricane Emily (2005) to cumulus and microphysical parameterizations in the WRF model  extended abstract wrf recording
Xuanli Li, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu
10:45 AM16A.2Near real time global optimum interpolated microwave SSTs: applications to hurricane intensity forecasting  extended abstract wrf recording
Chelle Gentemann, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and F. Wentz and M. DeMaria
11:00 AM16A.3Tropical Storm Talas - Formation and Impacts at Kwajalein Atoll  extended abstract wrf recording
Tom Wright, 3D Research Corporation, APO, AP
16A.4Tropical Cyclone Simulation Using a Solution-Adaptive Grid Model  
Thomas Dunn, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang
11:15 AM16A.5The Use of Dynamic Grid Adaptation Technique in Tropical Storm Prediction  
Zafer Boybeyi, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and M. Kafatos, N. Ahmad, R. Gautam, G. Cervone, and D. Sun
11:30 AM16A.6Sensitivity of high-resolution tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to surface flux parameterization  
Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA
11:45 AM16A.7A tropical cyclone rainfall climatology-persistence model for the Taiwan area  extended abstract wrf recording
Kevin K. W. Cheung, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. R. Huang and C. S. Lee
12:00 PM16A.8Sensitivities of Intensification and Eyewall Evolution of the Simulated Hurricane Isabel (2003) to Different Microphysics Schemes in the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) Model  
Jainn J. Shi, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. -. K. Tao
 
10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Friday, Regency Grand Ballroom
Session 16B Tropical Cyclone Intensity IV
Chair: Michael Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
10:30 AM16B.1Preliminary Field Review of Automated Intensity Estimates  extended abstract wrf recording
Caroline A. Bower, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI; and K. Viault, J. Roach, and J. Jaykoski
10:45 AM16B.2Impacts of Nucleating Aerosols on the Evolution of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone  extended abstract
Henian Zhang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar, S. M. Saleeby, and W. R. Cotton
11:00 AM16B.3Impact of Dissipative Heating on Tropical Cyclone Predictions  
Yi Jin, SAIC, monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng
16B.4Estimating Surface Wind Fields in Tropical Cyclones Using Infrared Satellite Imagery  
Howard Berger, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Kossin, J. A. Knaff, T. Cram, C. S. Velden, J. Hawkins, and R. J. Murnane
11:15 AM16B.5Environmental dynamical control of tropical cyclone intensity—An observational study  
Zhihua Zeng, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang, G. J. Holland, C. C. Wu, and Y. Duan
11:30 AM16B.6Generalizing the axisymmetric approach to hurricane intensity  
John Persing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
11:45 AM16B.7Extreme horizontal winds measured by dropwindsondes in hurricanes  extended abstract wrf recording
Sim Aberson, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL, FL; and D. Stern
12:00 PM16B.8Extreme vertical winds measured by dropwindsondes in hurricanes  extended abstract wrf recording
Daniel P. Stern, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson
 
10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Friday, Big Sur
Session 16C Tropical Cyclones and Climate V - Atlantic Basin
Chair: John A. Knaff, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
10:30 AM16C.1Comparing two active Atlantic hurricane eras: Are the differences real or simply due to improved observations?  
Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. J. Neumann and C. W. Landsea
16C.2Recurvature and landfall of Atlantic hurricanes and their relationship to the NAO: An update  
Brian F. Owens, Risk Management Solutions Limited, London, United Kingdom
10:45 AM16C.3Atlantic Basin, US and Caribbean Landfall Activity Rates over the 2006-2010 Period  extended abstract wrf recording
Auguste Boissonnade, Risk Management Solutions, Newark, CA; and M. Lonfat and R. Muir-Wood
11:00 AM16C.4New evidence for a long-term relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and African dust outbreaks  extended abstract
Amato Evan, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden
11:15 AM16C.6Characteristics of tropical cyclone rainfall in the United States  extended abstract
Byron E. Gleason, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
11:30 AM16C.6Genesis of Atlantic tropical storms from African Easterly Waves—a comparison of two contrasting years  extended abstract wrf recording
Susanna Hopsch, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
11:45 AM16C.7A comparison of hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Camille (1969)  
Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
12:00 PM16C.8A synthetic trapped-fetch wave climatology for the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific  extended abstract wrf recording
Allan W. MacAfee, MSC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
 
10:30 AM-12:30 PM, Friday, Regency Grand BR 1-3
Session 16D Special Session: Diurnal Variability of Precipitation - Global and Regional Studies
Chair: Song Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, Greenbelt, MD
10:30 AM16D.1The diurnal cycles of water and energy over North America as simulated by three reanalyses  
A.C. Ruane, ECPC, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA; and J. O. Roads and M. Kanamitsu
10:45 AM16D.2Observational and numerical studies of coherent warm-season rainfall over the Bay of Bengal  
Changhai Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff and J. D. Tuttle
11:00 AM16D.3Modeling the diurnal change of cloud cover using multiple global models and ISCCP/TRMM data sets  extended abstract wrf recording
Arindam Chakraborty, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti
11:15 AM16D.4Diurnal variations of the water cycle in the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework  extended abstract
Jiun-dar Chern, GEST, Greenbelt, MD; and W. -. K. Tao and X. Lin
11:30 AM16D.5Observations during EPIC2001—Diurnal cycle in the East Pacific  extended abstract wrf recording
Carlos López Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond
11:45 AM16D.6Radar-observed characteristics of the diurnal cycle of precipitation during NAME 2004  
Timothy J. Lang, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. W. Nesbitt, R. C. Cifelli, S. A. Rutledge, D. A. Ahijevych, and R. E. Carbone
12:00 PM16D.7Diurnal and semidiurnal surface wind variations over the tropical Pacific Ocean  
Rei Ueyama, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Deser and J. M. Wallace
12:15 PMConcluding Remarks  
 
12:30 PM, Friday
Announcement of Max Eaton Prize and Conference Conclusion
 

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