| Saturday, 28 January 2006 |
| 7:30 AM-7:31 AM, Saturday
Short Course and Student Conference Registration |
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| Sunday, 29 January 2006 |
| 7:30 AM-9:00 AM, Sunday
Short Course Registration |
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| 9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday
Conference Registration |
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| Monday, 30 January 2006 |
| 7:30 AM-6:00 PM, Monday
Registration Continues through Thursday, 2 February |
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| 9:00 AM-11:45 AM, Monday, A304
Session 1 Forecast Evaluation |
Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
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| 9:00 AM | 1.1 | The skill of forecasting relatively isolated severe thunderstorm events  
Andrew R. Dean, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. T. Schaefer |
| 9:15 AM | 1.2 | Real time forecast verification tools at The Weather Channel, Atlanta GA
Jeral G. Estupiñán, The Weather Channel & Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA; and J. P. Koval, P. M. Rouse, D. M. Long, B. Rose, R. Lucksinger, and C. Peters |
| 9:30 AM | 1.3 | Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness
Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Balabdaoui and A. E. Raftery |
| 9:45 AM | 1.4 | Overestimating Forecast Skill Through Improper Application of Verification Metrics: Simpson's Paradox in Meteorology
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. Juras |
| 10:00 AM | | Paper 1.5 moved. New paper number 8.1A
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| 10:01 AM | 1.6 | Extending ROC analysis to the multicategory forecast problem
Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona and NSSL, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen |
| 10:16 AM | | Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer
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| 10:45 AM | 1.7 | Evaluating spatial quantitative precipitation forecasts in the form of binary images
Thomas C.M. Lee, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. Gilleland, B. G. Brown, and R. G. Bullock |
| 11:00 AM | 1.8 | Bayesian Verification Measures for Forecasts of Continuous Predictands
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA |
| 11:15 AM | 1.9 | Application of Evidence Theory to Quantify Uncertainty in Forecast of Hurricane Path
Svetlana V. Poroseva, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Letschert and M. Y. Hussaini |
| 11:30 AM | 1.10 | A New Spatial Scale Decomposition of the Brier Score for the Verification of Probabilistic Lightning Forecasts
Barbara Casati, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. J. Wilson |
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| 12:00 PM-1:10 PM, Monday
Plenary Session 1 AMS Forum Kick-Off Luncheon (Cash & Carry available in the Meeting Room Foyer) |
Chairs: Sue Grimmond, King's College, London United Kingdom; Steven Hanna, Harvard Univ., Boston, MA; Mark Andrews, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
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| 12:00 PM | PL1.1 | Forum opening
Gregory S. Forbes, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and M. Andrews, C. S. B. Grimmond, and S. R. Hanna |
| 12:10 PM | PL1.2 | How should we compare and evaluate urban land surface models?
Martin Best, Met Office, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom |
| 12:40 PM | PL1.3 | THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS: A MIX OF CURSES AND BLESSINGS
Stanley Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL |
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| 1:45 PM-2:45 PM, Monday, A304
Session 2 Gridded Forecasts, Their Production and Use |
Cochairs: Christopher Daly, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; Barbara Casati, MSC, Dorval, QC Canada
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| 1:45 PM | 2.1 | Gridded MOS--Techniques, Status, and Plans
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Dallavalle |
| 2:15 PM | 2.2 | Evaluation of NDFD and downscaled NCEP forecasts in the Intermountain West
Brandon C. Moore, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and V. P. Walden, T. R. Blandford, B. Harshburger, and K. Humes |
|  | 2.3 | Climatological aspects of observed and simulated precipitation entities
Michael P. Kay, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and E. E. Ebert |
| 2:30 PM | 2.3a | Probabilistic Forecasts Based on "Reforecasts"
Tom Hamill, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (M2) |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Exhibit Hall A2
Poster Session 1 Probability and Statistics |
| | P1.1 | Prediction for drought strength in North China
Wei Fengying, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China |
| | P1.2 | Extensions and alternative formulations of the ROC curve
Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona / NSSL, Tucson, AZ; and H. E. Brooks |
| | P1.3 | Examples of Bayesian probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts
Coire J. Maranzano, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz |
| | P1.4 | An evaluation of the 10 years of seasonal climate outlooks issued for Wisconsin
Steven J. Meyer, University of Wisconsin, Green Bay, WI; and K. A. Hemauer, K. L. Karl, C. Sonnabend, and C. S. Spannagle |
| | P1.5 | A closer look into Georgia's precipitation : Summarizing patterns and relationships
Raymond D. Mooring, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA |
| | P1.6 | The impact of weather sensitivity on the economic value of ensemble forecasts
Jing Yuan, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; and T. Simmers and J. McGregor |
| | P1.7 | Location of heaviest rainfall relative to frontal boundaries during the warm season
Adam B. Smith, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC |
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| 4:00 PM-5:00 PM, Monday, A304
Session 3 Bayesian Probability Forecasting |
Cochairs: Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY
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| 4:00 PM | 3.1 | Bayesian Processor of Output: A New Technique for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA |
| 4:15 PM | 3.2 | Bayesian Processor of Output for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
Coire J. Maranzano, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz |
| 4:30 PM | 3.3 | Forecasting U.S. hurricanes 6 months in advance
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger and R. J. Murnane |
| | 3.4 | Forecast calibration and combination: Bayesian assimilation of seasonal climate predictions
Caio A. S. Coelho, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and M. A. Balmaseda |
| 4:45 PM | 3.5 | Communicating probability with real-time calibrated forecasts
Patrick G. Tewson, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA |
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| 5:30 PM, Monday
Sessions end for the day (M) |
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| 5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Monday
Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar) |
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| 7:30 PM, Monday
Holton Symposium Banquet |
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| Tuesday, 31 January 2006 |
| 8:45 AM-11:45 AM, Tuesday, A304
Session 4 Ensemble Forecasting |
Cochairs: David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
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| 8:45 AM | 4.1 | The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. Lefaivre, G. Brunet, P. L. Houtekamer, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Y. Pelletier, R. Verret, L. Wilson, B. Cui, G. Pellerin, B. A. Gordon, D. Michaud, E. Olenic, D. Unger, and S. Beauregard |
| 9:00 AM | 4.2 | Recent changes in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Q. Liu |
| 9:15 AM | 4.3 | Will Perturbing Soil Moisture Improve Warm-Season Ensemble Forecasts? A Proof of Concept
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Warner and C. J. Sutton |
| 9:30 AM | 4.4 | Pre-emptive forecasts from an ensemble Kalman filter
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC |
| 9:45 AM | | Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
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| 11:00 AM | 4.5 | A Stochastic Parameterization Scheme within NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu |
| 11:15 AM | 4.6 | An implementation of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter on the NCEP GFS
Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. J. Kostelich and G. Gyarmati |
| 11:30 AM | 4.7 | An ensemble data assimilation scheme that has mixed Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors
Steven J. Fletcher, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski |
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| 11:00 AM-6:00 PM, Tuesday
Exhbits Open (T) |
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| 12:15 PM, Tuesday
Plenary Session Presidential Forum with Boxed Lunch (Lunch will be available for purchase outside the meeting room.) |
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| 1:45 PM-4:45 PM, Tuesday, A304
Session 5 Use of Ensembles and Their Postprocesing in Prediction |
Cochairs: Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK
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| 1:45 PM | 5.1 | The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles and their real-time implementation within NWS web-based graphical forecasts
Andrew V. Durante, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart, A. I. Watson, R. H. Grumm, and W. Drag |
| 2:00 PM | 5.2 | Taking into account the rank of a member within the ensemble for probabilistic forecasting based on the best member method
Vincent Fortin, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. C. Favre |
| 2:15 PM | 5.3 | Precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system
Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson |
| 2:30 PM | 5.4 | Postprocessing multimodel ensemble data for improved short-range forecasting
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf |
| 2:45 PM | 5.5 | Post processed short range ensemble forecasts of severe convective storms
David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. S. Wandishin |
| 3:00 PM | | Coffee Break
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| 3:30 PM | 5.6 | On producing probability forecasts
William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY; and R. Zaretzki |
| 3:45 PM | 5.7 | Ensemble based probabilistic tropical cyclone forecasts
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC |
| 4:00 PM | 5.8 | Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods in the Lorenz '96 setting
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY |
| 4:15 PM | 5.9 | Combining spatial and ensemble information for probabilistic weather forecasting
Veronica J. Berrocal, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting |
| 4:30 PM | 5.10 | A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging
Seung-Ki Min, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; and A. Hense |
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| 5:30 PM, Tuesday
Sessions end for the day (T) |
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| Wednesday, 1 February 2006 |
| 9:00 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday, A304
Session 6 Objective Forecasting of Atmospheric Phenomena |
Cochairs: David Unger, NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; William R. Burrows, AES, Downsview, ON Canada
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| 9:00 AM | 6.1 | An experiment in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting
Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK; and J. M. Frederick |
| 9:15 AM | 6.2 | Consensus Probabilistic Forecasting
William Myers, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and M. Pocernich |
| 9:30 AM | 6.3 | Insuring Temporal and Spatial Consistency in Short Range Statistical Weather Forecasts
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. R. Wiedenfeld |
| 9:45 AM | 6.4 | Utilizing Reanalysis Data in MOS or Perfect Prog
Caren Marzban, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK and University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. A. Sandgathe and E. Kalnay |
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| 10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday
Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer (W1) |
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| 10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, A304
Session 7 Climate Forecasting |
Cochairs: James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; Cécile Penland, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
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| 10:30 AM | 7.1 | Water management in a semi-arid region: an analogue algorithm approach for rainfall seasonal forecasting
Francesco Piani, IBIMET - CNR, Firenze, Italy; and M. Pasqui and G. Maracchi |
| 10:45 AM | 7.2 | Testing slow varying predictors in a Nearest Neighbor model for statistical prediction of South East Asian Monsoon
Viatcheslav V. Tatarskii, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster |
| 11:00 AM | 7.3 | Regional climate predictability from multiple global GCMs in simulations of the 20th century and multimodel regional forecasts of future climate change
Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Tatarskii and P. J. Webster |
| 11:15 AM | 7.4 | Making optimal use of climate forecast uncertainty in water resources operations and management
Shaleen Jain, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh |
| 11:30 AM | 7.5 | Fraser river extended streamflow prediction system
Stanley J. Woodcock, Riverside Technology, Inc., Fort Collins, CO; and M. Thiemann, L. E. Brazil, E. Vincent, and A. Pineda |
| 11:45 AM | 7.6 | A climatic model for predicting seasonal rainfall
Bernardo Barbosa da Silva, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, PB, Brazil; and M. A. F. Ferreira, V. D. P. R. D. Silva, and F. D. A. S. D. Sousa |
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| 11:00 AM-7:30 PM, Wednesday
Exhibits Open (W) |
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| 12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday
Lunch Break (Cash & Carry available in the Exhibit Hall) (W) |
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| 1:45 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, A304
Session 8 Extreme Weather and Climate |
Cochairs: Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
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| 1:45 PM | | Paper 8.1 moved. New paper number P1.7.
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| 1:46 PM | 8.1A | Forecast verification of extremes: Use of extreme value theory
Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 2:00 PM | 8.2 | The influence of large scale climate variability on winter precipitation extremes over the North America
Xuebin Zhang, Meteorological Service of Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada; and P. Y. Groisman and F. W. Zwiers |
| 2:15 PM | 8.3 | Decision making under uncertainty with an application to wildfire risk
Karen L. Abt, USDA, Resarch Triangle Park, NC; and T. P. Holmes and R. J. Huggett |
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| 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (W2) |
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| 3:45 PM, Wednesday
Sessions end for the day (W) |
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| 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, A304
Joint Session 1 Calibration and Verification of Probabilistic Forecast Products (Joint between 12th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology and the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics) |
Cochairs: Joseph T. Schaefer, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; Jennifer Mahoney, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO
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| 4:00 PM | J1.1 | An evaluation of impacts of grid resolution on the verification of aviation weather forecasts
Michael B. Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and A. Takacs |
| 4:15 PM | J1.2 | An approach for calibration of probabilistic forecasts with limited observational data
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. C. Bernstein |
| 4:30 PM | J1.3 | Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Issuance Analysis
Stacey Seseske, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hart |
| 4:45 PM | J1.4 | Quality Assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Product
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Pocernich, J. T. Braid, A. Holmes, and R. E. Bateman |
| 5:00 PM | J1.5 | Measuring the decision support value of probabilistic forecasts
F. Wesley Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO |
| 5:15 PM | J1.6 | An overview of the National Weather Service (NWS) verification for Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) using Stats on Demand
Michael Graf, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and C. K. Kluepfel and A. Rorke |
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| 5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Wednesday
Reception in the Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar) |
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| 7:30 PM, Wednesday
AMS Annual Awards Banquet |
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| Thursday, 2 February 2006 |
| 8:45 AM-12:30 PM, Thursday, A304
Session 9 Statistical Climatology |
Cochairs: Xuebin Zhang, Meteorological Service of Canada, Downsview, Ontario Canada; Elise V. Johnson, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA
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| 8:45 AM | 9.1 | Resampling methods for meteorological and climatological data analysis
Alexander Gluhovsky, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and E. Agee |
| 9:00 AM | 9.2 | Evaluation of an innovation variance methodology for real-time data reduction of satellite data streams
Bradley T. Zavodsky, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and S. M. Lazarus, R. Ramachandran, and X. Li |
| | 9.3 | Error propagation through principal components
G. Louis Smith, National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA |
| 9:15 AM | 9.4 | Statistical downscaling of precipitation through mixture-model clustering and nonhomogeneous transition probabilities for circulation and precipitation patterns
Mathieu R. Vrac, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and M. Stein and K. Hayhoe |
| 9:30 AM | 9.5 | A new weather generator based on spectral properties of surface air temperatures
J.T. Schoof, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. Arguez, J. Brolley, and J. J. O'Brien |
| 9:45 AM | | Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
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| 11:00 AM | 9.6 | Spatial regression as a technique for assessing the quality of temperature data
Nathaniel Guttman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC |
| 11:15 AM | 9.7 | Radar-to-gauge comparison of precipitation totals: implications for quality control
Imke Durre, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and M. J. Menne |
| 11:30 AM | 9.8 | Estimating precipitation normals for USCRN stations
Bomin Sun, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and T. C. Peterson |
| 11:45 AM | 9.9 | Diagnosing the Distribution of Seasonal Mean Precipitation
Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. A. Smith |
| 12:00 PM | 9.10 | Assessing the long-term representativeness of short wind records
Karsten Shein, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC |
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| 11:00 AM-4:00 PM, Thursday
Exhibits Open (Th) |
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| 12:15 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday
Lunch Break (Cash & Carry available in the Exhibit Hall) (Th) |
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| 3:00 PM, Thursday
Registration Desk Closes |
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| 3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday
Coffee Break in the Exhibit Hall and AMS IPOD Raffle (Th2) |
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| 4:00 PM, Thursday
Exhibit Close |
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| 5:30 PM, Thursday
Conference Ends |
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| 6:00 PM, Thursday
Lilly Symposium Banquet |
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