Up to 65% of the delays encountered by commercial airlines can be attributed to thunderstorms. Since delays are costly, it is desirable for an airline to recover from a delay as quickly as possible, after an adverse weather event (like a thunderstorm) impacts operations. Sufficiently accurate numerical weather guidance on the storm scale, coupled with the effective application of model results to decision support systems for air traffic management (ATM), could help to mitigate the economic impact of delay. However, the extent to which predictions must be accurate in time and in space for this type of application has not yet been fully explored. Furthermore, it is uncertain how the model results would specifically be used to add value to existing ATM technology.
The purpose of the present investigation is to further the understanding of how storm scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) can be used to shorten the effective delay caused by a thunderstorm. To accomplish this goal, a single-server (one runway) queuing model is developed. The queuing model is examined with respect to the accuracy of the predicted locations and durations of convective activity.
A systems approach to the valuation and verification of model output
for ATM applications will also be discussed
The 8th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology