The 10th Symposium on Global Change Studies

2C.5
THE 1997-98 EL NINO- A RETROSPECTIVE ON THE EVENT AND FORECAST SYSTEM PERFORMANCE

Nicholas E. Graham, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, La Jolla, CA; and L. M. Goddard and S. Mason

The 1997-98 El Nino, ranks with and in some respects exceeded the 1982-83 episode in severity, thus placing it as probably the strongest event of the 20th century. Impacts around the world were widespread and in many cases broke long-standing or all time records for various aspects of climate. This most recent event was better observed than any previous El Nino, enjoying close scrutiny from the media and from the science community. Further, for the first time, climate prediction systems were brought to bear in force in forecasting the evolution of the episode and its impacts. The presentation will review highlights of the 1997-98 episode, including both physical and socio-economic impacts, and will discuss the performance of climate prediction systems and activities, and the effectiveness of the forecast information that was produced in assisting in planning for and dealing with the episode's impacts

The 10th Symposium on Global Change Studies