10th Symposium on Global Change Studies

7:30 AM-6:00 PM CONFERENCE REGISTRATION

MON 11 JAN___________________________
7:00 AM CONFERENCE REGISTRATION
9:00 AM SESSION 1: INTERNATIONAL ASSESSMENTS AND RESEARACH PROGRAMS (Invited Session)
Chairperson(s): Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NESDISNCDC, Asheville, NC
9:00 AM 1.1 THE THIRD INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) ASSESSMENT. Robert Watson, World Bank, Washington, DC
9:30 AM 1.2 IMPLEMENTING CLIVAR. Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO
10:00 AM COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM 1.3 STATUS, PROGRESS, AND OUTLOOK FOR THE UNITED STATES GLOBAL CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAM (USGCRP). Robert W. Corell, NSF, Arlington, VA
11:00 AM 1.4 STATUS, PROGRESS, AND OUTLOOK OF NATIONAL AERONAUTICS SPACE ADMINISTRATION'S (NASA) GLOBAL CHANGE RELATED PROGRAMS. Ghassem Asrar, NASA, Washington, DC
11:30 AM 1.5 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH. Aristides A. Patrinos, DOE, Washington, D.C.
12:00 PM LUNCH BREAK
1:30 PM 1.6 STATUS, PROGRESS AND OUTLOOK FOR OF NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION'S (NOAA) GLOBAL CHANGE RELATED PROGRAMS. J. Michael Hall, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD
2:00 PM 1.7 EPA'S GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM- ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON THE UNITED STATES. Joel Scheraga, EPA, Washington, DC
2:30 PM 1.8 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH AT THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. David A. Kirtland, USGS, Reston, Virginia
3:00 PM COFFEE BREAK
3:30 PM 1.9 WE DON'T DO CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, BUT ... Thomas Nelson, ONR, Arlington, VA
4:00 PM POSTER SESSION P1:
P1.1 COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TWO ESTUARINE ICHTHYOPLANKTON COMMUNITIES- A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND A TEMPERATE ONE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. Laura Sanvicente-Anorve, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and X. Chiappa-Carrara
P1.2 CONTINENTAL SHELF WATER MASSES OFF EASTERN SOUTH AMERICA - 20 TO 40°S. Alberto R. Piola, Servicio de Hidrografia Naval, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and E. J. Campos, O. O. Moeller, Jr., M. Charo, and C. Martinez
P1.3 INTER-DECADAL CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS ALONG THE EXTRA-TROPICAL WESTERN COASTS OF THE AMERICAS- EVIDENCE FROM TREE RINGS OVER THE PAST FOUR CENTURIES. R. Villalba, Lamont-Doherty Earth Obsevatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY, and IANIGLA, Mendoza, Argentina; and R. D. D'Arrigo, E. R. Cook, G. Wiles, and G. C. Jacoby
P1.4 CANADIAN PRAIRIE GROWING SEASON PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION. Barrie R. Bonsal, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang and W. D. Hogg
P1.5 ESTUARINE FISH DIVERSITY- A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN PATOS LAGOON (32 S), BRAZIL, AND YORK RIVER (37 N), USA. J .P. Vieira, INPE, Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
P1.6 PAPER MOVED TO 5B.13. , , ,
P1.7 PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS(PIRCS)- PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE 1988 MIDWEST DROUGHT. Raymond W. Arritt, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and . et al.
P1.8 LOCATING AND ASSESSING DATA FROM INTERDISCIPLINARY SOURCES. Karsten A. Shein, Raytheon STX, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Ritz
P1.9 CIRCULATION ANOMALIES LEADING TO PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA DURING EL NINO AND LA NINA CYCLES. Alice M. Grimm, Federal Univ. of Parana, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil; and V. R. Barros
P1.10 REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US- AEROSOL COOLING VS. GREENHOUSE WARMING. V. K. Saxena, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Yu
P1.11 IMPACTS OF THE EXTREMES OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IN AMAZONIA. PART 2. CIRCULATION, CONVECTION AND SSTS. Jose A. Marengo, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and A. Grimm and P. Zaratini
P1.12 A STUDY OF HIGH RESOLUTION TRACER MAPS USING WAVELET ANALYSIS. Pablo Canziani, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Capital Federal, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and M. Behar
P1.13 THE MEAN ANNUAL CYCLE IN SUBTROPICAL ARGENTINA AND ITS RELATION WITH TROPICAL CONVECTION IN SOUTH AMERICA. Vicente R. Barros Sr., Univ. of Buenos Aires, Capital Federal, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and M. Gonzalez
P1.14 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE 70 HPA TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. Rosa H. Compagnucci, Univ. de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and M. A. Salles and P. O. Canziani
P1.15 UPPER-AIR WAVE TRAINS OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND WINTERTIME COLD SURGES IN TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA. Jose A. Marengo, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and T. Ambrizzi, G. Kiladis, and B. Liebmann
P1.16 ORBITAL FORCING IN PALEOCLIMATIC MODELS. Vladimir L. Potemkin Sr., Limnological Institute, Irkutsk, Russia
P1.17 GLOBAL NEGOTIATIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE- LESSONS FROM MONTREAL AND KYOTO PROTOCOLS. Mohammed H. Dore, Brock Univ., St. Catharines, ON, Canada; and R. Guevara and J. Nogueira
P1.18 STORMS AS A FACTOR OF RURAL COMMUNITY IDENTITY- EXAMPLES FROM THE INUIT EXPERIENCE. JoAnne Zamparo, Memorial Univ. of Newfoundland, St. John's College, St. John's, NF, Canada
P1.19 GLOBAL OCEAN SURFACE HEAT BUDGET AND INTERBASIN-MASS TRANSPORT ESTIMATED FROM OCEAN ISOPYCNAL GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL. Shoichiro Nakamoto, Earth Science and Technology Organization/JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and J. M. Oberhuber, D. Cayan, and K. Muneyama
P1.20 APPLICATION OF THE MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS) TECHNIQUE FOR FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE COFFEE GROWING AREAS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL. Ilja S. Kim, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, RS-Brazil; and J. Marengo, M. F. Leal de Quadro, and N. Dias
P1.21 CROSS-CORRELATIONS OF THE 1 TO 2 WEEK SUBTROPICAL JETS AND THE MID-LATITUDE FORCING OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC DURING NOVEMBER 1986-APRIL 1987. Ken-Chung Ko, National Koahsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan
P1.22 EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE AND GLOBAL CHANGE EDUCATION WORKSHOPS- BUILDING IAI CAPACITY WITH A SCIENCE AND EDUCATION NETWORK. Donald R. Johnson, USRA, Columbia, MD; and J. Ledesma Vazquez, L. Calliari, M. Ruzek, and M. Kalb
P1.23 MORPHOLOGY OF AN EXTREME LOW OZONE EVENT OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. Pablo O. Canziani, Univ. de Buenos Aires /CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and R. Compagnucci, S. Bischoff, and G. C. J. Escobar
P1.24 IMPACTS OF EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON CROP PRODUCTION IN THE ARGENTINA'S PAMPAS REGION. Graciela O. Magrin, INTA, Castelar, Argentina; and M. O. Grondona, M. I. Travasso, D. R. Boullon, G. R. Rodriguez, and C. D. Messina
P1.25 RELATIONS BETWEEN CLIMATIC VARIABILITY RELATED TO ENSO AND MAIZE PRODUCTION IN ARGENTINA. María I. Travasso, INTA, Castelar, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and G. O. Magrin and M. O. Grondona
P1.26 SEDIMENTARY RECORDS OF RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, MEXICO. Evgueni N. Shumilin, Interdisciplinary Marine Science Center, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico; and E. Nava-Sanchez, D. Sapozhnikov, S. Kalmykov, and L. Godinez-Orta
P1.27 UNDERSTANDING USE AND PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE INFORMATION AMONG FARMERS IN THE PAMPEAN REGION, ARGENTINA- A SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH. Ignacio Llovet, Universidat de Belgrano, Buenos Aires, Argentina; and E. Terreno, E. Gentile, and A. Barsky
P1.28 ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA (URUGUAY). Mario Bidegain, Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay; and P. Krecl
P1.29 CLIMATIC PERSPECTIVE OF THE 1997-98 LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES ICE COVER. Raymond A. Assel, GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI; and J. Janowiak, D. Norton, and C. O'Connors
P1.30 THE EFFECT OF EL NINO ON THE TRACKS OF EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. David R. Smith, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and M. J. Ledridge
P1.31 RELATIONS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN VENEZUELA TO TROPICAL PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES. Miguel Acevedo, Univ. of North Texas, Denton, TX; and K. McGregor, R. Andressen, H. Ramirez, and M. Ablan
5:00-7:00 PM FORMAL OPENING OF EXHIBITS WITH RECEPTION (CASH BAR)

TUE 12 JAN___________________________
7:30 AM REGISTRATION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY 15 JANUARY
8:00 AM SYMPOSIUM ON CLIMATE AND SOCIETAL ISSUES
9:30 AM-2:15 PM EXHIBIT HOURS
10:00 AM COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM SESSION 2A: DETECTING CLIMATE CHANGE
Chairperson(s): Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
10:30 AM 2A.1 TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF THE TEMPERATURE-SALINITY STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD OCEAN. Sydney Levitus, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
11:00 AM 2A.2 HISTORIC INSTRUMENTAL DATA AVAILABILITY. Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
11:15 AM 2A.3 A CONSERVATIVE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INDEX. Robert G. Quayle, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. C. Peterson, A. N. Basist, and C. S. Godfrey
11:30 AM 2A.4 RECORD BREAKING GLOBAL TEMPERATURES OF 1997 AND 1998- EVIDENCE OF CLIMATIC CHANGE?. Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
11:45 AM 2A.5 A COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT GLOBAL SST DATA SETS- IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE MODELING AND REANALYSIS. James W. Hurrell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. E. Trenberth
12:00 PM 2A.6 TEMPERATURE TRENDS OF THE U.S. HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGY NETWORK BASED ON SATELLITE-DESIGNATED LAND USE/LAND COVER. Kevin Gallo, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. Owen, D. Easterling, and P. Jamason
12:15 PM LUNCH BREAK
2:15 PM 2A.7 MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CANADA FOR 1895-1995 AND 1946-1995. Lucie Vincent, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada; and X. Zhang and B. Hogg
2:30 PM 2A.8 DETECTION OF GLOBAL WARMING USING OBSERVED TRENDS IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SNOW COVER AND SEA ICE AREAS. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock, R. J. Stouffer, J. E. Walsh, D. A. Robinson, D. Garrett, and V. F. Zakharov
2:45 PM 2A.9 GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS SINCE 1979. John R. Christy, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and R. W. Spencer and W. D. Braswell
3:00 PM 2A.10 A NEW ERA IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE MONITORING WITH THE ADVANCED MICROWAVE SOUNDING UNIT (AMSU). Roy W. Spencer, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and W. D. Braswell and J. R. Christy
3:15 PM 2A.11 GLOBAL WARMING ESTIMATION FROM MSU. Cuddapah Prabhakara, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Iacovazzi
3:30 PM COFFEE BREAK
4:00 PM 2A.12 SENSITIVITY OF TROPOSPHERIC AND STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO RADIOSONDE DATA QUALITY. Dian J. Gaffen, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. A. Sargent, R. E. Habermann, and J. R. Lanzante
4:15 PM 2A.13 VARIABILITY IN COLD SURGE FREQUENCY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FROM A SYNOPTIC-CLIMATOLOGY PERSPECTIVE. Michael Notaro, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. Wang
4:30 PM 2A.14 THE IMPACT OF OBSERVING SYSTEM ON CLIMATE SCALE VARIABILITY IN THE NCEP AND ECMWF REANALYSES. M. Fiorino, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., UK; and P. Kallberg and S. Uppala
4:45 PM 2A.15 DECADAL-SCALE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC DRYING FROM 1979 TO 1995 USING A REANALYZED TOVS PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA BASE. Steven R. Schroeder, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and J. P. McGuirk
5:00 PM 2A.16 MORE SIGNS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VENEZUELA- FOCUS ON AIR VISIBILITY AND WATER EVAPORATION. Ramon A. Quintana-Gomez Sr., Universidad Nacional Experimental de los LLanos Ezequiel Zamora, Barinas, Venezuela
5:15 PM 2A.17 DECADAL VARIABILITY OF THE ASIAN MONSOON. Alexander Gershunov, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and N. Schneider, T. Barnett, and M. Latif
10:30 AM SESSION 2B: INTER-AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH (IAI) SCIENCE
Chairperson(s): Edmo Campos, Univ. of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
10:30 AM 2B.1 EL NINO, LA NINA AND CLIMATE PREDITION IN SOUTH AMERICA. Carlos Nobre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil
11:00 AM 2B.2 THE IMPACT OF MIDLATITUDE AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON CLIMATE. Michael A. Alexander, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Scott
11:15 AM 2B.3 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF MJJ CARIBBEAN PRECIPITATION. A. Anthony Chen, Climate Research Group, Mona, Univ. of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica; and M. Taylor, S. Bryan, and L. Marx
11:30 AM 2B.4 SEASONAL, INTERANNUAL, AND DECADAL VARIABILITIES OF THE WORLD OCEAN MIXED LAYER DEPTH. Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and H. Liu and C. Fan
11:45 AM 2B.5 EVOLUTION OF THE STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION ON ANTARCTIC AND SUB-ANTARCTIC REGIONS. S .B. Diaz, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas (CONICET), Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina; and C. R. Booth, A. V. Oberto, D. R. Martinioni, and G. Deferrari
12:00 PM 2B.6 GROUND-BASED ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION OBSERVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA. Humberto A. Fuenzalida, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Santiago, Chile; and S. B. Diaz, C. R. Booth, S. Cabrera, J. C. Labraga, C. Lovengreen, L. Orce, and A. Paladini
12:15 PM CONFERENCE LUNCHEON
2:15 PM 2B.7 LAND-AIR-SEA INTERACTION AT THE ANTOFAGASTA REGION (CHILE, 23 DEGREES S)- THE DICLIMA EXPERIMENT. Jose Rutllant, Univ. of Chile, Santiago, Blanco Encalada, Chile; and H. Fuenzalida, R. Torres, and D. Figueroa
2:30 PM 2B.8 AN END-TO-END FRAMEWORK FOR THE EFFECTIVE APPLICATION OF ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE FORECASTS IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF ARGENTINA. Guillermo P. Podesta, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. Hansen, J. W. Jones, C. Kiker, T. LaRow, D. Legler, D. Letson, and J. J. O'Brien, F. Royce
2:45 PM 2B.9 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF COLUMBIA'S HYDRO-CLIMATOLOGY. German Poveda, Universidad Nacional de Columbia, Medellin, Columbia; and M. M. Gil and N. Quiceno
3:00 PM 2B.10 A 400-YEAR TREE-RING CHRONOLOGY FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN TROPICS. Franco Biondi, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and I. Galindo Estrada, A. Burton, S. E. Metcalfe, D. R. Cayan, and W. H. Berger
3:15 PM 2B.11 DECADAL TO SECULAR VARIABILITY OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT FOR THE LAST II CENTURIES- PRESERVATION AND CALIBRATION OF RECORDS FROM LAMINATED SEDIMENTS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MARGIN. Juan Carlos Herguera, CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico; and B. Olivier, T. Herbert, A. Esparza, C. Lange, and J. Candela
3:30 PM COFFEE BREAK
4:00 PM 2B.12 ENSO IMPACTS AND APPLICATIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN. Roger S. Pulwarty, NOAA and Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
4:30 PM 2B.13 LATE QUATERNARY VEGETATION AND CLIMATE HISTORIES OF ARID LATIN AMERICA FROM FOSSIL MIDDENS. Julio Betoncourt, USGS, Tucson, AZ
5:00 PM 2B.14 LAND USE POLICY ON MARGINAL LANDS AS A RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING- AN INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC APPROACH. Mohammed H. Dore, Brock Univ., St Catharines, ON, Canada; and M. Johnston and S. Kulshreshtha
5:15 PM 2B.15 THE PACHITEA WATERSHED PROJECT - AARAM-PERU. Carlos A. Llerena, Univ. Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima, Peru; and M. E. McClain
5:30 PM 2B.16 HUMAN-CLIMATE INTERACTION IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE- RECORDS FROM THE CALIFORNIAS. Concepción Martínez-Maske, CICESE, San Diego, CA; and J. C. Herguera
5:45 PM 2B.17 PAPER WITHDRAWN. .,
10:30 AM SESSION 2C: CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH (Invited Session)
Chairperson(s): Chester Ropelewski, International Research Institute (IRI) for aClimate Prediction, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY and Donald S. Burke
10:30 AM 2C.1 INTEGRATED RESEARCH ON HEALTH EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. Jonathan A. Patz, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
11:00 AM 2C.2 FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF DENGUE AND OTHER MOSQUITO-TRANSMITTED DISEASES. Duane J. Gubler, US Department of Health Human Services, Fort Collins, CO
11:30 AM 2C.3 THE ENSO EXPERIMENT- USING CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION TO PROVIDE EARLY WARNING OF DANGERS TO HUMAN HEALTH. Juli Trtanj, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and P. Arkin
12:15 PM CONFERENCE LUNCHEON
2:15 PM 2C.4 TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND MORTALITY IN CANADA. Abdel R. Maarouf, Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
2:45 PM 2C.5 THE 1997-98 EL NINO- A RETROSPECTIVE ON THE EVENT AND FORECAST SYSTEM PERFORMANCE. Nicholas E. Graham, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, La Jolla, CA; and L. M. Goddard and S. Mason
3:30 PM COFFEE BREAK
4:00 PM 2C.6 EPIDEMIC FORECASTING- TOWARD A PREDICTIVE SCIENCE OF EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES. Donald S. Burke, John Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, MD
4:30 PM 2C.7 CLIMATE AND ENSO VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MALARIA AND DENGUE FEVER IN COLOMBIA. German Poveda, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellin, Colombia; and N. E. Graham, P. R. Epstein, W. Rojas, I. D. Velez, M. L. Quinones, and P. Martens
5:00 PM 2C.8 THE HEALTH IMPACTS OF ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN BRAZIL- APPROACHES AND LINKAGES. Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
2:15 PM JOINT SESSION J6: MULTIDECADAL AND MILLENIAL SCALE TROPICAL CYCLONE VARIABILITY (Joint with 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology)
Chairperson(s): Christopher Landsea, NOAA/HRD,Miami, FL
2:15 PM J6.1 MILLENNIAL-SCALE VARIABILITY IN CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE LANDFALLS ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST (INVITED). Kam-biu Liu, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA
2:45 PM J6.2 ON THE CAUSES OF MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR INCREASED ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN THE COMING DECADES (INVITED). William M. Gray, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
3:15 PM J6.3 FREQUENCY OF TYPHOON LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CHINA DURING THE PERIOD 1470-1931. Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong; and J. E. Shi
3:30 PM COFFEE BREAK
4:00 PM J6.4 TRENDS IN HURRICANE LANDFALL PROBABILITIES IN THE U.S. James B. Elsner, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and K. Liu and B. L. Kocher
4:15 PM J6.5 SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF TROPICAL STORM OCCURRENCE AND IMPACTS FOR THE US COAST. Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, India; and A. Rao and A. Solow
4:30 PM J6.6 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN DECADAL-SCALE FLUCTUATIONS IN VERTICAL SHEAR FROM NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS DATA AND ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. W. Landsea
4:45 PM J6.7 GLOBAL AND REGIONAL TRENDS IN 1000MB AND 500MB WAVE CYCLONE FREQUENCIES, 1958-1997. Jeffrey R. Key, Boston University, Boston, MA; and A. C. K. Chan
5:00 PM J6.8 UPWARD TREND IN GLOBAL INTENSE AND SUPER-INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE NUMBERS 1969-1997. Frank P. Roberts, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, UK; and M. A. Saunders
5:15 PM J6.9 ECONOMIC LOSS AND HURRICANE ACTIVITY. Lixin Zeng, Arkwright Mutual Insurance Co., Waltham, MA; and P. J. Kelly
5:30 PM J6.10 THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE DATABASE RE-ANALYSIS PROJECT. Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Anderson, G. Clark, J. Fernandez-Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer

WED 13 JAN___________________________
8:00 AM HORTON LECTURE
8:45 AM SESSION 2A: DETECTING CLIMATE CHANGE (Continued)
8:45 AM 2A.18 A SEARCH FOR TROPOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR TRENDS- 1948-1995. Rebecca J. Ross, NOAA/ARL, Silver Spring, MD; and W. P. Elliott
9:00 AM 2A.19 CHANGES IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE U.S. Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO
9:15 AM 2A.20 CHANGES IN THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. Pavel Ya. Groisman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and . et al.
9:30 AM 2A.21 OBSERVED HISTORICAL LONG-TERM TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION IN THE AMAZON BASIN SINCE THE LATE 1920'S. Jose A. Marengo, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil
9:45 AM 2A.22 A GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX- MONITORING AND COMMUNICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. Steven R. Schroeder, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX
10:00 AM COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM 2A.23 AN INTER-HEMISPHERE COMPARISON OF EXTENDED WINTER SEASON CONDITIONS IN THE STRATOSPHERE. Shuntai Zhou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Washington, DC; and M. E. Gelman, A. J. Miller, and J. P. McCormack
10:45 AM 2A.24 ON THE NATURE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND ITS INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY. Thomas Jung, Institut fuer Meereskunde, Kiel, Germany; and E. Ruprecht
8:45 AM SESSION 3A: CLIVAR/VARIABILITY OF AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEMS (VAMOS)
Chairperson(s): T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
8:45 AM 3A.1 THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM (NAMS). R. W. Higgins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC
9:15 AM 3A.2 PAPER WITHDRAWN.
9:30 AM 3A.3 DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE DIURNAL VARIABILITY OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON. Connie M. Klimczak, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
9:45 AM 3A.4 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF PANAMANIAN PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS IN THE PERIOD RANGE OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS. Kevin D. Leaman, RSMAS, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and M. C. Donoso
10:00 AM COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM 3A.5 THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM. Victor Magana, National Autonomous Univ., Mexico City, Mexico
11:00 AM 3A.6 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON- MECHANISTIC IMPLICATIONS. David L. Mitchell, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Ivanova and T. J. Brown
11:15 AM 3A.7 THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. Mathew AAA Barlow, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam
11:30 AM 3A.8 THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM. Vernon E. Kousky, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
12:00 PM LUNCH BREAK
1:30 PM 3A.9 HIGH-RESOLUTION SIMULATIONS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE- VALIDATION OF THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE OF THE AMAZON AND SOUTHWEST U.S. Andrea N. Hahmann, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. Shaikh and R. E. Dickinson
1:45 PM 3A.10 ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ONSET AND DEMISE OF THE RAINY SEASON IN AMAZONIA. Jose A. Marengo, CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and B. Liebmann, I. Wainer, and V. Kousky
2:00 PM 3A.11 THE LOW-LEVEL JET AT SANTA CRUZ, BOLIVIA DURING JANUARY-MARCH 1998 PILOT BALLOON OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL COMPARISONS. Michael Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. Nicolini and C. Saulo
2:30 PM 3A.12 WARM SEASON MOISTURE TRANSPORTS OVER SOUTH AMERICA ESTIMATED FROM ETA MODEL FORECASTS. Ernesto H. Berbery, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. A. Collini
2:45 PM 3A.13 POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF THE MONSOON SUBCLIMATE SYSTEMS. Song Yang, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Lau, Y. Chang, and S. Schubert
3:00 PM COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM SESSION 3B: ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Chairperson(s): Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
10:30 AM 3B.1 ON THE EFFECT OF SIGNAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETECTION OF ANTHROPOGENIC SIGNALS. Tim Barnett, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and C. Doutriaux, G. Hegerl, P. Jones, B. Santer, E. Roeckner, K. Taylor, and S. Tett
10:45 AM 3B.2 CAUSES OF TWENTIETH CENTURY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. Simon F. Tett, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks, UK; and P. Stott, M. Allen, W. Igram, and J. Mitchell
11:00 AM 3B.3 A MULTI-VARIABLE APPROACH TO CLIMATE-CHANGE DETECTION. Benjamin J. Santer, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and E. Roeckner, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, C. Doutriaux, K. Hasselmann, G. C. Hegerl, and J. J. Hnilo
11:15 AM 3B.4 USING THE GENERAL LINEAR MODEL TO INVESTIGATE RECENT ANTHROPOGENIC AND OCEANIC FORCING OF CLIMATE. David M. Sexton, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK; and C. K. Folland, D. J. Karoly, D. P. Rowell, and H. Grubb
11:30 AM 3B.5 CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION USING SIMPLE GLOBAL INDICES. David Karoly, Monash Univ., Clayton, VIC, Australia; and K. Braganza, A. Hirst, and S. Power
11:45 AM 3B.6 ABOUT THE NONSTATIONARY ENSO RESPONSE TO GREENHOUSE WARMING. A. Timmermann, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands
12:00 PM LUNCH BREAK
1:30 PM 3B.7 CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION- APPLYING AN OPTIMAL FINGERPRINT ALGORITHM TO THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF TEMPERATURE, DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND PRECIPITATION. Reiner Schnur, Max-Planck-Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and U. Cubasch
1:45 PM 3B.8 UNCERTAINTIES IN DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE. Gabriele C. Hegerl, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA
2:00 PM 3B.9 SEASONAL DETECTION OF TWENTIETH CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE. Peter A. Stott, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks, UK; and G. Jones and S. F. B. Tett
2:15 PM 3B.10 SIGNAL DETECTION BY OPTIMUM PATTERN REMOVAL. T. M. L. Wigley, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Santer and P. D. Jones
2:30 PM 3B.11 THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN RADIATIVE FORCING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE TREND PREDICTIONS. Piers M. Forster, Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK; and N. Christidis and K. P. Shine
2:45 PM 3B.12 ERROR ANALYSIS IN CLIMATE SIGNAL DETECTION. Gerald R. North, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and M. J. Stevens
3:00 PM COFFEE BREAK
3:30 PM 3B.13 CAN WE USE THE CLIMATE RESPONSE TO VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS TO ESTIMATE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY?. Melissa P. Free, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock
3:45 PM 3B.14 SUMMER DESICCATION AS A GLOBAL WARMING FINGERPRINT?. Alan Robock, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and K. Y. Vinnikov, R. Wetherald, S. Manabe, J. Entin, R. Stouffer, V. Zabelin, and A. Namkhai
4:00 PM 3B.15 NONLINEAR ENSO RESPONSE TO GREENHOUSE WARMING. Axel Timmermann, Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and A. Bacher, M. Latif, J. Oberhuber, and E. Roeckner
4:15 PM 3B.16 EL NINO AND GLOBAL WARMING. Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO
4:30 PM 3B.17 CLIMATE CHANGE AND EL NINO- A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK. De-Zheng Sun, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA, Boulder, CO
4:45 PM 3B.18 MULTI-SCALE RESPONSE OF GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO SOLAR ACTIVITY. Hengyi Weng, SAIC/General Sciences Corp., Greenbelt, MD
5:00 PM 3B.19 BEYOND ATTRIBUTION- EXPLOITING THE ANTHROPOGENIC SIGNAL. Myles R. Allen, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, UK; and P. Stott, R. Schnur, and C. Forest
11:00 AM SESSION 4: PALEOCLIMATE
Chairperson(s): Henry Diaz, NOAA/OAR, Boulder, CO
11:00 AM 4.1 ICE CORE EVIDENCE FOR TROPICAL CLIMATE CHANGE- THE ROLE OF WATER VAPOR. Lonnie G. Thompson, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH
11:15 AM 4.2 LONG-TERM VARIABILITY OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO). Charles W. Stockton, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. F. Glueck
11:30 AM 4.3 METEOROLOGICAL INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS FROM ANTARCTIC ICE CORES BY USING AN AGCM UNDER DIFFERENT PALEOCLIMATE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. Gregor C. Leckebusch, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and P. Speth
11:45 AM 4.4 PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTION IN THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN CORDILLERA. Brian H. Luckman, Univ. of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; and E. Watson
12:00 PM LUNCH BREAK
1:30 PM 4.5 RECENT, ANNUALLY RESOLVED CLIMATE AS RECORDED IN STABLE ISOTOPE RATIOS IN ICE CORES FROM GREENLAND AND ANTARCTICA. James W. White, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and E. J. Steig, J. Cole, E. Cook, and S. Johnsen
1:45 PM 4.6 DECADAL-SCALE CHANGES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TREE-RING RECORDS. Franco Biondi, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and D. R. Cayan and W. H. Berger
2:00 PM 4.7 AN 857-YEAR RECONSTRUCTION OF JULY TEMPERATURE FROM IDAHO TREE RINGS. Franco Biondi, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and D. L. Perkins, D. R. Cayan, and W. H. Berger
2:15 PM 4.8 A 2,000-YEAR PALEOCLIMATIC RECORD OF DROUGHT IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. Connie A. Woodhouse, NOAA/National Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Overpeck
2:30 PM 4.9 ENSO AND NAO- PRESENT AND 6000 YEARS BEFORE PRESENT AS SIMULATED BY THE NCAR CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL. Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, NCAR, Boulder, CO
2:45 PM 4.10 TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF WINTER AND SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN DURANGO, MEXICO, FOR THE PAST 600 YEARS. David W. Stahle Sr., Univ. of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR; and M. K. Cleaveland, M. D. Therrell, and J. Villanueva-Diaz
6:00 PM RECEPTION (CASH BAR)
7:30 PM AMS ANNUAL AWARDS BANQUET

THU 14 JAN___________________________
8:00 AM WALTER ORR ROBERTS LECTURE
8:45 AM JOINT SESSION J2: ENSO AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION (Joint with 11th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Chairperson(s): Andy White, NOAA/NEXRAD/OSF, Norman, OK
8:45 AM J2.1 CIRCULATION PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH FLOOD-PRODUCING PRECIPITATION EVENTS. Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and K. Andsager and D. R. Easterling
9:00 AM J2.2 THE EFFECTS OF ENSO ON GREAT LAKE CYCLONES. James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and G. Van Dyke and S. A. Isard
9:15 AM J2.3 ENSO PHASE AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTENCE IN THE WESTERN U.S. Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. R. Cayan
9:30 AM J2.4 UNDERSTANDING THE CHARACTERISTICS IF THE INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS IN THE NORTH AMERICAN PRECIPITATION FIELD. Hengchun Ye, Univ. of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and H.-R. Cho
9:45 AM J2.5 DEFINING THE ONSET AND ENDING DATE OF EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON BY USE OF EFFECTIVE PRECIPITATION. Hi-Ryong Byun, Pukyong National Univ., Namku, Pusan, Korea
10:00 AM COFFEE BREAK
COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM J2.6 TELECONNECTION OF THE 1997 EL NINO OBSERVED BY SPACEBORNE SENSORS AND THE DECADAL ANOMALIES ION THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. W. Timothy Liu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and H. Hu and X. Xie
10:45 AM J2.7 NORTHEAST AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE AND THE CHANGING ROLE OF EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION. Janice M. Lough, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
11:00 AM J2.8 ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO ENSO IN THE CONTINENTAL TROPICS AND THE 1997-98 EL NINO. Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and V. Kumar
11:15 AM J2.9 SAHEL - ENSO RELATIONSHIP WITH THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSES (1958-1997). Serge Janicot, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, Essonnes, France; and I. Poccard
11:30 AM J2.10 THE ANOMALOUS DEVELOPMENT OF 90'S ENSO AND THE DECADAL CLIMATE CHANGE. Qin Zhang, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and Y. H. Ding
11:45 AM J2.11 DAILY PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS AND ENSO- A CASE STUDY IN COSTA RICA. Michael Harrison, Univ. of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS; and P. R. Waylen and S. Laporte
8:45 AM SESSION 3B: ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE (Continued)
8:45 AM 3B.20 THE ROLE OF SOLAR AND VOLCANIC FORCING IN THE LITTLE ICE AGE. Melissa P. Free, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. Robock
9:00 AM 3B.21 A TELECONNECTION MECHANISM THAT LINKS CLIMATE CHANGES IN SUBPOLAR AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. Jiayan Yang, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA
9:15 AM 3B.22 ICEHOUSE EFFECT- A POLAR AUTUMN AND WINTER COOLING TREND?. Peter J. Wetzel, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
9:30 AM 3B.23 ADIABATIC MECHANISM OF THE SHORT-TERM CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS. Roman V. Bekryaev, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia
9:45 AM 3B.24 CLOUD EFFECTS ON THE NEAR SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE- TEMPORAL CHANGES. Bomin Sun, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA; and P. Y. Groisman, R. S. Bradley, and F. Keimig
10:00 AM COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM 3B.25 POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUNSPOT NUMBERS AND WEAK INDIAN MONSOON RAINFALL OBSERVED DURING THE CURRENT CENTURY ON A DECADAL TIME-SCALE. Chintamani P. Kulkarni Sr., Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India
10:45 AM 3B.26 RECENT ABRUPT CHANGES IN WINTER ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND THEIR RELATION TO PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. Hui Wang, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Fu
11:00 AM 3B.27 ON THE CLIMATIC INFLUENCE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE- INDICATIONS OF SUBSTANTIAL CORRELATION AND PREDICTABILITY. Gregory R. Markowski, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and G. R. North
8:45 AM SESSION 5A: MODEL SIMULATIONS OF PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE CLIMATE
Chairperson(s): Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
8:45 AM 5A.1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NATURAL VARIABILITY AND CO2-INDUCED WARMING PATTERN- MRI COUPLED ATMOSPHERE/MIXED-LAYER (SLAB) OCEAN GCM (SGCM) EXPERIMENT. Akira Noda, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Yoshimatsu, A. Kitoh, and H. Koide
9:00 AM 5A.2 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NATURAL VARIABILITY AND CO2-INDUCED WARMING PATTERN- MRI AOGCM EXPERIMENT. Akira Noda, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Yamaguchi, S. Yamaki, and S. Yukimoto
9:15 AM 5A.3 SIMULATIONS OF PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE USING A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GCM WITHOUT FLUX ADJUSTMENTS. John F. Mitchell, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks, UK; and W. J. Ingram, T. C. Johns, C. E. Johnson, A. Jones, D. L. Roberts, and C. A. Senior
9:30 AM 5A.4 CLIMATE SIMULATIONS WITH THE DOE PARALLEL CLIMATE MODEL (PCM). Warren M. Washington, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Weatherly, A. J. Semtner, G. A. Meehl, Y. Zhang, T. Bettge, W. Strand, and A. Craig
9:45 AM 5A.5 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING. Paul J. Kushner, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and I. M. Held
10:00 AM COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM 5A.6 THE ECMWF 40 YEAR RE-ANALYSIS (ERA-40) PROJECT- PLANS AND CURRENT STATUS. John K. Gibson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., UK; and M. Fiorino, A. Hernandez, P. Kallberg, X. Li, K. Onogi, S. Saarinen, and S. Uppala
10:45 AM 5A.7 THE ECMWF 40-YEAR RE-ANALYSIS -- VALIDATION OF THE INTENDED SYSTEM. P. Kallberg, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., UK; and J. Gibson, A. Hernandez, K. Onogi, S. Saarinen, S. Uppala, and X. Li
11:00 AM 5A.8 STUDYING TROPICAL CLIMATE EQUILIBRIUM WITH A HADLEY CIRCULATION MODEL. Luciano Fleischfresser, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
11:15 AM 5A.9 A COMPARISON OF GCM MODELS WITH EXPERIMENTAL MEASUREMENTS OF SURFACE RADIATIVE FORCING BY GREENHOUSE GASES. Wayne F. Evans, Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON, Canada; and E. Puckrin
11:30 AM 5A.10 A DYNAMICAL STABILIZER IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM- A MECHANISM SUGGESTED BY A SIMPLE MODEL AND CORROBORATED BY GCM EXPERIMENTS. Ray Bates, Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; and V. A. Alexeev
11:45 AM 5A.11 VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF STORM TRACKS IN REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS OVER AUSTRALIA. J. Katzfey, CSIRO, Aspendale, Vic, Australia; and J. L. McGregor
12:00 PM LUNCH BREAK
1:30 PM 5A.12 SEASONAL TO INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS SIMULATED WITH AN INTERMEDIATE COUPLED TROPICAL OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL. Bin Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Z. Fang
1:45 PM 5A.13 EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS OVER WEST AFRICA IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS. Gregory S. Jenkins, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. Adokye
2:00 PM 5A.14 PREDICTABILITY AND VARIABILITY OF NORTH ATLANTIC AND EUROPEAN CLIMATE. Mark J. Rodwell, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks, UK; and D. P. Rowell and C. K. Folland
2:15 PM 5A.15 EXAMINING RADIATIVE FEEDBACKS IN A QUASI-EQUILIBRIUM TROPICAL CIRCULATION MODEL. Chia Chou, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin
2:30 PM 5A.16 DYNAMICS OF INTERDECADAL AND CENTENNIAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. Axel Timmermann, Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and M. Latif
2:45 PM 5A.17 MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY OF THE THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC EXCITED BY STOCHASTIC SURFACE FLUX FORCING. Thomas L. Delworth, GFDL, Princeton, NJ
3:00 PM COFFEE BREAK
3:30 PM 5A.18 SPECIFICATION OF LONG AND SHORT TERM TRENDS IN THE PRE-1950 STRATOSPHERIC QBO. J. D. Sheaffer, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. M. Gray
3:45 PM 5A.19 EFFECT OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON THE SIMULATED TROPICAL CLIMATE - A COMPARISON BETWEEN AGCM AND CGCM. Akio Kitoh, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and O. Arakawa
4:00 PM 5A.20 SENSITIVITY OF THE TROPICAL OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE TO SEASONAL AND LONG-TERM CLIMATE FORCING. K.-M. Kim, USRA, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Lau
4:15 PM 5A.21 SIMULATIONS OF ENSO USING THE UKMO HADLEY CENTRE COUPLED MODELS- CONTROL INTEGRATIONS AND FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS. Matthew Collins, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks, UK; and S. F. B. Tett and J. F. B. Mitchell
4:30 PM 5A.22 THE BALANCE OF GLOBAL ANGULAR MOMENTUM IN THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS DATA. Huei-Ping Huang, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and K. M. Weickmann
4:45 PM 5A.23 EMPIRICAL DIAGNOSIS OF CLIMATE REGIME IN A COUPLED MODEL. Cecile Penland, CDC, Boulder, CO; and M. Fluegel and P. Chang
5:00 PM 5A.25 A NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE APPEARENCE OF RUNAWAY GREENHOUSE STATE IN A THREE-DIMENSIONAL GRAY ATMOSPHERE. Masaki Ishiwatari, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; and K. Nakajima, S. Takehiro, and Y. Hayashi
5:15 PM 5A.26 REVISED PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST PROCESSES IN THE UCLA GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL. Jui-Lin F. Li, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and A. Arakawa and C. R. Mechoso
5:30 PM 5A.27 DYNAMICAL DIAGNOSIS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION- AIR-SEA INTERACTIONS, TELECONNECTIONS, AND ZONAL-EDDY COUPLING. Eric T. DeWeaver, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam
11:15 AM SESSION 5B: CLIVAR/VAMOS ECT.
Chairperson(s): C. Roberto Mechoso, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and Ernesto H. Berbery, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD
11:15 AM 5B.1 THE CLIVAR/VAMOS PROGRAMME ON THE AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEMS. C. Roberto Mechoso, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA
11:30 AM 5B.2 INTER-AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH- BUILDING MULTINATIONAL RESEARCH NETWORKS. Bradford P. Wilcox, Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research, Sco Josi dos Campos, SP, Brazil
11:45 AM 5B.3 TROPICAL DIVERGENT CIRCULATIONS INFERRED SATELLITE-DERIVED DIABATIC FORCING UNDER SIMPLE INTEGRAL CONSTRAINTS. Franklin R. Robertson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and H. I. Lu and E. W. McCaul
12:00 PM LUNCH BREAK
1:30 PM 5B.4 INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS IN THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON AND THEIR TELECONNECTION WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. Andrew W. Robertson, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. R. Mechoso and Y. J. Kim
2:00 PM 5B.5 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF U.S. PRECIPITATION, DROUGHT, AND RIVER FLOW DURING THE WARM SEASON. Mathew AAA Barlow, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Nigam and E. H. Berbery
2:15 PM 5B.6 INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 1979 TO 1997 AND SENSITIVITY OF THE CPTEC/COLA GCM IN PREDICTING EXTREME CASES. Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti, Instituto de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; and V. Kousky
2:30 PM 5B.7 PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA DURING EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA CYCLES. Alice M. Grimm, Federal Univ. of Parana, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil; and V. R. Barros and M. Doyle
2:45 PM 5B.8 ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA- STATISTICAL APPROACHES TO AGRICULTURAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT. Martin O. Grondona, Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria, Castelar, Provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina; and C. Messina and G. P. Podesta
3:00 PM COFFEE BREAK
3:30 PM 5B.9 SUBMONTHLY CONVECTIVE VARIABILITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. Brant Liebmann, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis, J. Marengo, T. Ambrizzi, and J. Glick
4:00 PM 5B.10 WATER MASS DISTRIBUTION ON THE SHELF AND SHELF-BREAK UPWELLING IN THE SOUTHEAST BRAZILIAN BIGHT. Edmo J. Campos, Univ. de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and A. Piola and J. Miller
4:15 PM 5B.11 A MODELING-GIS APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE GLOBAL CHANGE EFFECTS ON SOIL SALINISATION IN A SMALL CATCHMENT. Angel Utset, Higher Institute of Agricultural Sciences of Havana, Havana, Cuba; and A. Centella and M. Borroto
4:30 PM 5B.12 SEASONAL SIMULATIONS USING CPTEC/COLA GCM IN EL NINO AND LA NINA YEARS. Iracema FM Cavalcanti, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, S.P, SA, Brazil; and L. Pezzi
4:45 PM 5B.13 ANDEAN AMAZON RIVERS ANALYSIS AND MONITORING (AARAM) PROJECT. Michael E. McClain, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and R. Galárraga, A. V. Krusche, C. A. Llerena, L. Maurice-Bourgoin, J. E. Ruíz, and J. Quintanilla
3:30 PM JOINT SESSION J3: IMPACTS (Co-sponsored by the Committee on Societal Impacts) (Joint with 11th Conference on Applied Climatology)
Chairperson(s): David Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
3:30 PM J3.1 IMPACTS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE 1998 NEW YORK ICE STORM. Arthur T. DeGaetano, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and K. V. Vreeland and M. W. Wysocki
3:45 PM J3.2 AMERICAN RIVER FLOOD FREQUENCIES- A CLIMATE-SOCIETY INTERACTION. Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV
4:00 PM J3.3 VARIATIONS IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. John A. Harrington Jr., Kansas State Univ., Manhattan, KS; and D. Goodin and B. Witcher
4:15 PM J3.4 EL NINO FOREST FIRE SMOKE IMPACTS ON LIGHTNING CHARACTERISTICS IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. DURING SPRING 1998. Walter A. Lyons, FMA Research, Inc., Fort Collins, CO; and T. E. Nelson, E. R. Williams, J. Cramer, and T. Turner
4:30 PM J3.5 RELATIONSHIPS OF PRECIPITATION AND DAMAGING FLOODS IN THE UNITED STATES- 1932-1996. Roger A. Pielke Jr., NCAR, Boulder, Co; and M. Downton, L. Mearns, and N. Cofield
4:45 PM J3.6 UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS- FINDINGS FROM A RECENT WORKSHOP. Peter J. Sousounis, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
5:00 PM J3.7 A COMPARISON OF INDICES OF EXTREME SUMMER HEAT. Adam J. O'Shay, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and D. J. Gaffen
5:15 PM J3.8 NORMALIZED HURRICANE LOSSES IN CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN- PRELIMINARY RESEARCH FINDINGS. Roger A. Pielke Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Rubiera and C. Landsea
5:30 PM J3.9 HURRICANE RETURN PERIOD ESTIMATION. Mark E. Johnson, Univ. of Central Florida, Plantation, FL; and C. C. Watson, Jr.

FRI 15 JAN___________________________
8:00 AM SESSION 6A: BLENDED AND ENHANCED DATA SETS FOR GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES
Chairperson(s): Martha Maiden, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
8:00 AM 6A.1 DEVELOPMENT OF A 102-YEAR HIGH-RESOLUTION SPATIAL CLIMATE DATA SET FOR THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. Christopher Daly, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and T. Kittel, A. McNab, A. Royle, W. Gibson, T. Parzybok, N. Rosenbloom, and G. Taylor
8:15 AM 6A.2 A BLENDED SATELLITE - IN SITU GLOBAL LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SET. Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and A. N. Basist, C. N. Williams, and N. C. Grody
8:30 AM 6A.3 PRODUCING A GLOBAL LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SET FROM THE SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER. Alan R. Basist, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. Peterson, C. Williams, and N. Gody
8:45 AM 6A.4 CHANGES IN TROPICAL PACIFIC RAINFALL PATTERNS. Nicholas S. Mirsky, Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey
9:00 AM 6A.5 AIR-SEA INTERACTION STUDIES OF THE TROPICAL INDO-PACIFIC SEAS USING DATA FUSION METHODS ON MULTIVARIATE SATELLITE DATA- PRELIMINARY RESULTS. J .J. Simpson, Univ. of California, San Diego/ SIO, La Jolla, CA; and C. J. Koblinsky
9:15 AM 6A.6 COMPILATION OF A 20-YEAR SEA ICE MOTION DATASET BY BLENDING DATA FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES. Ron Kwok, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. A. Rothrock
9:30 AM 6A.7 TRANSITION FROM NOAA WEEKLY TO DAILY HEMISPHERIC SNOW CHARTS. David A. Robinson, Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ; and J. D. Tarpley and B. Ramsay
9:45 AM 6A.8 INITIAL RESULTS OF A GLOBAL BLENDED CHLOROPHYLL ANALYSIS. Watson W. Gregg, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. E. Conkright
10:00 AM COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM 6A.9 CONSTRUCTING SYNOPTIC MAPS OF STRATOSPHERIC COLUMN OZONE FROM HALOE, SAGE AND BALLOONSONDE DATA USING POTENTIAL VORTICITY-ISENTROPIC COORDINATE TRANSFORMATIONS. Stacey M. Hollandsworth, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. R. Schoeberl, G. A. Morris, C. S. Long, A. J. Miller, and S. Zhou
10:45 AM 6A.10 EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA SOURCES USED BY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY - ISENTROPIC (PVI) COORDINATE TRANSFORMATION TECHNIQUE. Craig S. Long, NOAA/NWS/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and A. J. Miller, R. M. Nagatani, M. E. Gelman, S. Zhou, S. M. Hollandsworth, and M. R. Schoeberl
11:00 AM 6A.11 MULTI-SATELLITE ASSESSMENT OF LAND SURFACE CHARACTERISTICS AT WEATHER OBSERVATION STATIONS- A CASE STUDY OF THE DALLAS-FT. WORTH REGION. Kevin P. Gallo, NOAA/NESDIS, Asheville, NC; and T. W. Owen
11:15 AM 6A.12 CONSTRUCTING EARTH RADIATION BUDGET DATA SETS TO ASSESS CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON DECADAL TIME SCALES. David H. Tashima, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann
11:30 AM 6A.13 AN INTEGRATED SURFACE RADIATION BUDGET NETWORK FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH. John A. Augustine, ARL, Boulder, CO; and C. Cornwall and G. Hodges
11:45 AM 6A.14 THE EARTH RADIATION BUDGET SATELLITE 13-YEAR DATA SET. Kathryn A. Bush, SAIC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith, D. A. Rutan, B. R. Barkstrom, R. B. Lee, and D. F. Young
12:00 PM LUNCH BREAK
8:00 AM SESSION 6B: WATER VAPOR, CLOUDS, AND PRECIPITATION
Chairperson(s): Arnold Gruber, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC
8:00 AM 6B.1 INVESTIGATIONS OF CLOUD-RADIATION INTERACTIONS. Dana E. Lane, Univ. of California, San Diego/SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville, S. F. Iacobellis, and J. Berque
8:15 AM 6B.2 SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF MONTHLY MEAN PRECIPITATION WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE 1997/98 EL NINO. Arnold Gruber, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC; and B. Vant-Hull and X. Su
8:30 AM 6B.3 INVESTIGATING INFLUENCES ON EARLY SEASON CARIBBEAN RAINFALL DURING THE EL NINO +1 YEAR. Michael A. Taylor, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD
8:45 AM 6B.4 INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY OF SUMMER RAINFALL OVER SOUTH AMERICA. Jiayu Zhou, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Lau
9:00 AM 6B.5 ON THE INFLUENCE OF INDIAN OCEAN SSTS ON RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. Lisa M. Goddard, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and N. E. Graham
9:15 AM 6B.6 THE ROLE OF THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE VARIABILITY OF THE AUSTRAL-ASIAN SECTOR. John Fasullo, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and W. Rossow and P. Webster
9:30 AM 6B.7 SEASONAL PRECIPITATION VARIABILITIES IN NORTH AMERICA AND LINKAGES TO MULTI-SCALE GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. K. -M Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Weng
9:45 AM 6B.8 THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON. Ernesto H. Berbery, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD
10:00 AM COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM 6B.9 A COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND SIMULATED PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY IN DIFFERENT CLIMATE REGIMES. Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan
10:45 AM 6B.10 TROPICAL RAINFALL ANALYSIS USING TRMM IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER SATELLITE AND GAUGE DATA- COMPARISON WITH GLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY PROJECT (GPCP) RESULTS. Robert F. Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman, D. Bolvin, E. Nelkin, and S. Curtis
11:00 AM 6B.11 MIGRATION OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR FROM SUBTROPICS TO THE US WEST COAST AS OBSERVED BY MICROWAVE LIMB SOUNDER. Hua Hu, JPL, California Inst. of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and W. T. Liu
11:15 AM 6B.12 OBTAINING AREA-AVERAGED ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITATION FROM POINT MEASUREMENTS- AN OBJECTIVE OF THE SRDC. Barbara A. Gibson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. A. Shafer, M. L. Morrissey, and J. S. Greene
11:30 AM 6B.13 SENSITIVITY OF CLOUD-RADIATION INTERACTIONS TO VARIOUS CLOUD PARAMETERIZATIONS USING A SINGLE-COLUMN MODEL AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION MEASUREMENT PROGRAM. Sam F. Iacobellis, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and R. C. J. Somerville, D. E. Lane, and J. Berque
10:30 AM JOINT SESSION J16B: CLIMATIC CHANGE AND TROPICAL CYCLONES (Joint with 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology)
Chairperson(s): Chris Landsea, NOAA/HRD/AOML, Miami, FL
10:30 AM J16B.1 INCREASED HURRICANE INTENSITIES WITH CO2-INDUCED WARMING AS SIMULATED USING THE GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM (INVITED). Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya
11:00 AM J16B.2 INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE PROCESSES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL INTENSITY. Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
11:15 AM J16B.3 IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES- A NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT WITH THE T42 VERSION OF NCAR CCM2. Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Inst of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and A. Kasahara and H. Hirakuchi
11:30 AM J16B.4 INFLUENCE OF GREENHOUSE WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY SIMULATED BY A HIGH-RESOLUTION AGCM. Jun Yoshimura, Meteorological Research Inst./Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Sugi and A. Noda
11:45 AM J16B.5 IDENTIFICATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC WEEKLY CYCLES IN NORTHWEST ATLANTIC POLLUTION, PRECIPITATION AND TROPICAL CYCLONES. Randall S. Cerveny, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and R. C. Balling, Jr.
12:00 PM CONFERENCE ENDS