The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

J16B.1
INCREASED HURRICANE INTENSITIES WITH CO2-INDUCED WARMING AS SIMULATED USING THE GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM (INVITED)

Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya

The impact of CO2-induced global warming on the intensities of strong hurricanes is investigated using the GFDL regional high-resolution hurricane prediction system. The large-scale initial conditions and boundary conditions for the regional model experiments are derived from control and transient CO2 increase experiments with the GFDL R30-resolution global coupled climate model. In a case study approach, 51 storm cases under present-day climate conditions in the northwest Pacific basin are compared with 51 storm cases for high CO2 conditions. For each case, the regional model is integrated forward for five days without ocean coupling. The high CO2 storms, with SSTs warmer by about 2.2 C on average and higher environmental CAPE, are more intense than the control storms by about 3-7 m/sec (5%-12%) for surface wind speed and 7 to 23 mb for central surface pressure. The simulated intensity increases are statistically significant according to most of the statistical tests conducted and are robust to changes in storm initialization methods. Near-storm precipitation is 28% greater in the high CO2 sample. In terms of storm tracks, the high CO2 sample is quite similar to the control. The average horizontal extent of the high CO2 and control storms is similar, although the high CO2 storms penetrate slightly higher into the upper troposphere. More idealized experiments were also performed in which an initial storm disturbance was embedded in highly simplified flow fields using time mean temperature and moisture conditions from the global climate model. These idealized experiments support the case study results and suggest that in terms of thermodynamic influences the results for the NW Pacific basin are qualitatively applicable to other tropical storm basins.

The 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology