23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
SUN 10 JAN___________________________
7:30 AM	CONFERENCE REGISTRATION
7:00 PM	TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS OF METEOROLOGICAL WEBSITE MANIA
MON 11 JAN___________________________
7:00 AM	CONFERENCE REGISTRATION
8:00 AM	JOINT SESSION J1: REFLECTIONS ON GATE (Joint with 13th Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence) Chairperson(s): Jenni Evans, Penn State University, University Park; PA; and James Edson, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA
8:00 AM	J1.1	WELCOME. James Edson, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and J. L. Evans
8:15 AM	J1.2	THE CONCEPTION, PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION OF GATE (INVITED). James L. Rasmussen, NOAA, Silver Spring, MS
8:30 AM	J1.3	GATE ORIGINS, GOALS AND GAINS (INVITED). Michael Garstang, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
8:45 AM	J1.4	TROPICAL CONVECTION (INVITED). Alan K. Betts, AKB, Pittsford, VT; and R. Houze
9:15 AM	J1.5	GATE- DISTURBED BOUNDARY LAYER STRUCTURE AND PROCESS (INVITED). David R. Fitzjarrald, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. A. Businger
9:30 AM	J1.6	CLOUD/RADIATION INTERACTION (INVITED). Stephen Cox, Colorado State University, Boulder, CO; and B. Albrecht
9:45 AM	J1.7	THE FAIR WEATHER BOUNDARY LAYER IN GATE (INVITED). Margaret A. LeMone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. T. Pennell and R. L. Grossman
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	JOINT SESSION J1: Continued (Joint with 13th Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence) Chairperson(s): Michio Yanai, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and Toby N. Carlson, Penn State University, University Park, PA
10:30 AM	J1.8	SOME OUTSTANDING PRODUCTS FROM THE GATE CONVECTION DATA SET- A PERSONAL VIEW (INVITED). Joanne Simpson, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao
11:00 AM	J1.9	PARAMETERIZATION AND SCALE INTERACTIONS IN GATE (INVITED). Edward J. Zipser, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX; and H. Cho
11:15 AM	J1.10	HOW THE GATE RESULTS INFLUENCED SUBSEQUENT STUDIES OF CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS (INVITED). George S. Philander, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and D. Halpern
11:30 AM	J1.11	COMPARISION OF THE MEAN STATES BETWEEN GATE AND A 15-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE PHASE 3 PERIOD. Dayton G. Vincent, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and A. Fink and P. Speth
11:45 AM	J1.12	COMPARISON OF SOME AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN GATE AND A 15-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE PHASE 3 PERIOD. A. H. Fink, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and P. Speth and D. G. Vincent
12:00 PM	J1.13	GATE- A CONTEXT (INVITED). Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Houze
10:30 AM	SESSION 2A: OCEAN INTERACTION EFFECTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY (Parallel with Sessions J1 and 2B) Chairperson(s): Lynn K. Shay, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and Mark DeMaria, NOAA/AOML/NHC, Coral Gables, FL
10:30 AM	2A.1	EFFECTS OF SEA SPRAY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY. Edgar Andreas, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab., Hanover, NH; and K. A. Emanuel
10:45 AM	2A.2	THE IMPACT OF SEA SPRAY EVAPORATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION. Yuqing Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. D. Kepert and G. J. Holland
11:00 AM	2A.3	IMPACTS OF SEA SPRAY AND OCEANIC RESPONSE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. Chien-Liang Uang, Chung Cheng Inst. of Technology, Taiwan, Taoyuan, ROC
11:15 AM	2A.4	SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES- ARE THEY REALLY A GOOD MEASURE FOR INTENSITY PREDICTION?. Lynn K. Shay, RSMAS, Miami, FL
11:30 AM	2A.5	ATLANTIC OCEAN'S ROLE ON INTENSITY CHANGE. Michelle M. Huber, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay and G. J. Goni
11:45 AM	2A.6	IMPACT OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON HURRICANE INTENSIFICATION- A STUDY USING A REGIONAL AIR-SEA COUPLED MODELING SYSTEM. Jian-Wen Bao, CIRES/University of Colorado and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Wilczak, C. K. Choi, and L. H. Kantha
12:00 PM	2A.7	A STUDY OF AIR-SEA INTERACTIONS, HURRICANE PREDICTIVE INDEX (HPI) AND 1995 HURRICANE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. Remata S. Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. Guyton and R. L. Miller
12:15 PM	2A.8	A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA RESPONSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNIE 1996. Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and J. M. Veneziano
12:30 PM	LUNCH BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 2B: TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL (Parallel with Sessions J1&2A) Chairperson(s): John Beven III and Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Coral Gables, FL
10:30 AM	2B.1	AN EXAMINATION OF STRATEGIES TO REDUCE THE SIZE OF HURRICANE WARNING AREAS. Jerry D. Jarrell, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria
10:45 AM	2B.2	STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST SUPPORT FOR LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES. Roger Edwards, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK
11:00 AM	2B.3	AN ANALYSIS OF THE LANDFALL OF HURRICANE NORA (1997). Luis M. Farfan, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. A. Zehnder and M. S. Leuthold
11:15 AM	2B.4	WINDFIELDS IN HURRICANE DANNY (1997) AT LANDFALL FROM COMBINED WSR-88D AND AIRBORNE DOPPLER RADAR DATA. Peter P. Dodge Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Houston, W. C. Lee, J. Gamache, and F. D. Marks, Jr.
11:30 AM	2B.5	BAROCLINIC STRUCTURE OF HURRICANE DANNY AT LANDFALL. Kwan-yin Kong, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner
11:45 AM	2B.6	LIGHTNING IN HURRICANES. Kristen l. Corbosiero, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY
12:00 PM	LUNCH BREAK
1:00 PM	SESSION 3A: TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION THEORY (Parallel with Sessions 2B, J8, & JP1) Chairperson(s): Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
1:00 PM	3A.1	AN OBSERVATIONAL STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POTENTIAL VORTICITY DISTRIBUTION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION. Francis M.F Ko, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan
1:15 PM	3A.2	ESTIMATES OF THE INHERENT AND PRACTICAL LIMITS OF PREDICTABILITY OF MEAN FORECAST TRACK ERRORS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. PART III. Robert F. Abbey Jr., ONR, Arlington, VA; and L. M. Leslie and G. J. Holland
1:30 PM	3A.3	AN EVOLUTION OF THE NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ERRATIC MOTION. Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
1:45 PM	3A.4	NUMERICAL STUDY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PROPAGATION IN THE PRESENCE OF DIABATIC HEATING. Liguang Wu, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang
2:00 PM	3A.5	MOTION OF MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. Roger K. Smith, University of Munich, Munich, Bavaria, Germany; and H. C. Weber
2:15 PM	3A.6	RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION. Y. M. Lei, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan
2:30 PM	3A.7	THE DYNAMICS OF BAROCLINIC VORTICES IN VERTICAL SHEAR. Wolfgang Ulrich, University of Munich, Munich, Bavaria, Germany; and R. K. Smith
2:45 PM	3A.8	THE INFLUENTAIL FACTORS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND MOTION. Xiangde Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, Haidian, China; and X. Zhang and Q. Miao
3:00 PM	COFFEE BREAK
1:30 PM	JOINT SESSION J8: ADAPTIVE OBSERVING STRATEGIES (Joint with Third Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems) Chairperson(s): Stephan P. Nelson, NSF, Arlington, VA; Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and Wendall Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA
1:30 PM	J8.1	TARGETING AND SAMPLING STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE HURRICANE FORECASTS. Sim Aberson, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL
2:00 PM	J8.2	HURRICANES AT LANDFALL. Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL
2:15 PM	J8.3	INTEGRATED OBSERVATIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN AND APPLICATIONS TO TROPICAL CYCLONES. Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry, M. Duncan, and K. Emanuel
2:30 PM	J8.4	ADAPTIVE OBSERVATIONS FOR HURRICANE PREDICTION. Zhan Zhang, Florida State Univ., Tallahasse, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti
2:45 PM	J8.5	USING ENSEMBLES TO SIMULATE THE IMPACT OF TARGETED OBSERVATIONS. Craig H. Bishop, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. Majumdar, I. Szunyogh, Z. Toth, and S. D. Aberson
3:30 PM	J8.6	IMPLEMENTING A DOPPLER WIND LIDAR ON NPOESS USING ADAPTIVE TARGETING STRATEGIES. George D. Emmitt, Simpson Weather Assoc., Charlottesville, VA; and Z. Toth and R. Atlas
3:00 PM	COFFEE BREAK
3:45 PM	J8.7	THE AUTONOMOUS AEROSONDE GOES OPERATIONAL. Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and T. McGeer, G. Tyrrell, K. McGuffie, and J. Becker
4:00 PM	J8.8	THE BASIC AEROSONDE OBSERVATIONS SUITE. Jon Becker, ES&S Pty. Ltd., Melbourne, Australia; and G. Holland, G. Tyrrell, and T. McGeer
4:15 PM	J8.9	AEROSONDE OPERATIONS IN 1998. Tad McGeer, The Insitu Group Inc., White Salmon, WA; and G. Holland, G. Tyrrell, J. Becker, J. Vagners, and P. Ford
4:30 PM	J8.10	THE AEROSONDE FIELD DEPLOYMENT STRATEGY. Kendal McGuffie, University of Technology, Sydney, Australia; and G. J. Holland, G. Tyrrell, J. Becker, and T. McGeer
4:45 PM	J8.11	AEROSONDE DEPLOYMENT STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING. Greg Tyrrell, ES&S Pty. Ltd., Melbourne, Australia; and L. Leslie and G. J. Holland
5:00 PM	J8.12	HIGH ALTITUDE ROBOTIC AIRCRAFT- A NEW METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATION CAPABILITY. Basil Papadales, MIRADA, Inc., Issaquah, WA; and S. Schoenung
5:15PM	J8.13	ENSEMBLE-BASED TARGETED OBSERVATIONS DURING NORPEX. Istvan Szunyogh, UCAR Visiting Scientist at EMC/NCEP, Washington, DC; and Z. Toth, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, C. Bishop, and S. Lord
1:30 PM	SESSION JP1: BOUNDARY LAYER STUDIES IN TROPICAL METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY ( joint with 13th Conference on Boundary Layers and Turbulence) Chairperson(s): Jenni L. Evans, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and James Edson, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA
	JP1.1	AIR-SEA INTERACTION IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC- AN EXPERIMENT OF THE PAN AMERICAN CLIMATE STUDY (PACS) DURING THE 1997-1998 ENSO. Steven P. Anderson, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and R. A. W. Weller
	JP1.2	ON THE PARAMETERISATION OF SPRAY FLUXES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. Jeff D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and C. W. Fairall
	JP1.3	OBSERVATIONS AND SIMULATIONS OF BOUNDARY-LAYER PROCESSES IN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL. Yukuan Song, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie and S. Raman
	JP1.4	BOUNDARY-LAYER PARAMETERIZATION IN A CLOUD-RESOLVING MODEL USING THE RADICAL THERMODYNAMIC FORMULATION. Katsuyuki V. Ooyama, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
	JP1.5	NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION UNDER HIGH WIND CONDITIONS- A CASE STUDY OF HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT. J.-W. Bao, CIRES/University of Colorado and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Wilczak, C. K. Choi, L. H. Kantha, W. Wang, and J. Dudhia
	JP1.6	BARRIER-LAYER / WARM-LAYER- SIMULATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AT THE TROPICAL OCEAN MIXED-LAYER. Alexandre A. Costa, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton and R. A. Pielke, Sr.
	JP1.7	OBSERVATIONAL STUDY OF TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND DEEP CONVECTION DURING TOGA COARE. Carlos Lopez-Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond
	JP1.8	OBSERVATION AND POSSIBLE LINKS TO RAINFALL CYCLES OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. Geoff W. Shaughnessy, South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL
	JP1.9	A FORMULATION FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER CLOUD COVER. Michael B. Ek, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
	JP1.10	THREE-DIMENSIONAL WEEK-LONG SIMULATIONS OF TOGA COARE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS USING THE MM5 MESOSCALE MODEL. Hui Su, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. S. Chen and C. S. Bretherton
1:30 PM	SESSION 2B: Continued (Parallel with Sessions 3A, J8 & JP1)
1:30 PM	2B.7	ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF A TYPHOON FLOOD EVENT. Brian P. Mackey, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, Fl
1:45 PM	2B.8	THE IMPACT OF LAND-SURFACE PARAMETERISATION SCHEMES ON A LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONE. Linda C. Hopkins, BMRC and Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and G. J. Holland and A. Henderson-Sellers
2:00 PM	2B.9	A MODEL STUDY OF LANDFALLING HURRICANE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. Robert Howard, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. B. Chang
2:15 PM	2B.10	PAPER WITHDRAWN.
2:30 PM	2B.11	A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF LANDFALL TYPHOON IN TAIWAN. Cheng-shang Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and G. J. Jian
2:45 PM	2B.12	NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF HURRICANE LANDFALL USING THE GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION MODEL. Weixing Shen, University of Rhode Island, Province, RI; and I. Ginis and R. E. Tuleya
3:00 PM	COFFEE BREAK
3:30 PM	JOINT SESSION J1: PANEL DISCUSSION ON GATE- HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE AND LESSONS LEARNED (Joint with 13th Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence) Chairperson(s): Margaret LeMone, NCAR, Boulder, CO Panelist(s): Richard J. Reed, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; William M. Frank, Penn. State Univ., University Park, PA; Bruce Albrecht, RSMAS, Univ. of Miami,Miami, FL; Edward J. Zipser, Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX
5:00 PM	FORMAL OPENING OF EXHIBITS WITH RECEPTION (Cash Bar)
7:30 PM	GATE GALA (Reception sponsored by Hughes Space and Communications)
TUE 12 JAN___________________________
8:00 AM	SYMPOSIUM ON CLIMATE AND SOCIETAL ISSUES
8:00 AM	SESSION 4A: TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE I (Parallel with Sessions 4B, 4C & 4D) Chairperson(s): Christopher Velden, CIMSS/University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and Gary Barnes, University of Hawaii, HI
8:00 AM	4A.1	DIAGNOSTIC STRUCTURES OF TROPICAL STORM O6B BASED ON REMOTELY SENSED DATA. G .V. Rao, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and J. R. Schneider, S. J. Klaus, and C. E. Graves
8:15 AM	4A.2	SYNOPTIC PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT SIZES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. K. S. Liu, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan
8:30 AM	4A.3	WIND PROFILES IN HURRICANES DETERMINED BY GPS DROPWINDSONDES. James L. Franklin, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and S. E. Feuer
8:45 AM	4A.4	IDEALIZED MODELING OF HURRICANE-TROUGH INTERACTION. Sytske Kamminga, Penn State University, University Park, PA
9:00 AM	4A.5	THE PHENOMENAL WAVES OF HURRICANE LUIS. Peter J. Bowyer, Environment Canada, Bedford, NS, Canada
9:15 AM	4A.6	CALCULATING TROPICAL CYCLONE CRITICAL WIND RADII AND STORM SIZE USING NSCAT WINDS. Scott G. Magnan, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. E. Carr III, R. L. Elsberry, and M. A. Boothe
9:30 AM	4A.7	MANUALLY DERIVED UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS FOR TWO ATLANTIC HURRICANES. Kelly M. Carpenter, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
9:45 AM	4A.8	TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE VIA MULTIPLE PASSIVE MICROWAVE SENSORS. Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. F. Turk and J. L. Haferman
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 4A: Continued (Parallel with Sessions 4C, 4D, & 5)
10:30 AM	4A.9	TROPICAL CYCLONE WARM CORES AS OBSERVED FROM THE NOAA POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE'S NEW ADVANCED MICROWAVE SOUNDING UNIT. Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and K. F. Bruesky
10:45 AM	4A.10	TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE CHANGE AS REVEALED BY ONE-MINUTE SATELLITE IMAGERY. John A. Knaff, NOAA Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
11:00 AM	4A.11	UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERNS OVER SOME VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONES OF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AS REVEALED BY SOUNDINGS, DOPPLER RADAR, AND WATER-VAPOR WINDS. Bill Ward, NOAA/NWS, Tiyan, Guam; and M. A. Lander
11:15 AM	4A.12	CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN TROPICAL CYCLONES (1986-1996). Richard E. Orville, CIAMS/Texas A& M University, College Station, TX; and J. M. Coyne
11:30 AM	4A.13	THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TYPHOON RAINFALLS OVER TAIWAN AREA. T.C. Yeh, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. C. Wu
11:45 AM	4A.14	A PERSISTENT SHALLOW SUPERCELL ASSOCIATED WITH PROLONGED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITHIN HURRICANE DANNY'S EYEWALL OVER MOBILE BAY. Jeffrey M. Medlin, NOAA/NWSFO, Mobile, AL; and K. G. Blackwell
12:00 PM	4A.15	EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE FLOW IN A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DETERMINED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY. Eric W. Uhlhorn, NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black and A. F. Hasler
12:15 PM	CONFERENCE LUNCHEON
8:00 AM	SESSION 4B: EFFECTS OF THE TROPICS ON GLOBAL HYDROLOGY (Parallel with Sessions 4A, 4C, & 4D) Chairperson(s): Ana P. Barros and Jenni L. Evans, Penn State University, University Park, PA
8:00 AM	4B.1	COUPLING EFFECT OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND WATER VAPOR OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ON GLOBAL HYDROLOGY. Fong-Chiau Chang, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and G. J. Jedlovec
8:15 AM	4B.2	THE GREAT INDIAN OCEAN WARMING OF 1997-1998- EVIDENCE OF COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INSTABILITIES. Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Loschnigg, A. M. Moore, and . Leben
8:30 AM	4B.3	SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE AMAZON HYDROLOGIC CYCLE. Ning Zeng, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA
8:45 AM	4B.4	MONSOON AND VEGETATION INTERACTIONS - A STUDY USING A COUPLED NCEP GCM/SSIB MODEL. Yongkang Xue, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. H. Juang, S. Y. Hong, R. DeFries, M. Kanamitsu, R. DeFries, Y. Sud, and H. Pan
9:00 AM	4B.5	ROLE OF LAND SURFACE PROCESSES IN MODULATING ENSO IMPACTS OVER CONTINENTS. Loren D. White, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
9:15 AM	4B.6	THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AMAZON BASIN:. Andrea N. Hahmann, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Fu and R. E. Dickinson
9:30 AM	4B.7	MESOSCALE MOISTURE VARIATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD SURGES IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL. Tracy L. DeLiberty, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and J. A. Callahan
9:45 AM	4B.8	DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS AND RAINFALL VARIATIONS OVER SONORA. Julio Cesar Rodriguez, IMADES, Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico; and M. W. Douglas
10:00 AM	4B.9	SYNOPTIC PATTERNS CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODS OVER PUERTO RICO. Andy Roche-Jove Sr., NOAA, Tallahassee, FL
10:15 PM	COFFEE BREAK
8:00 AM	SESSION 4C: OBSERVATIONS OF CONVECTIVE PROCESSES (Parallel with Session 4A, 4B, & 4D) Chairperson(s): Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM
8:00 AM	4C.1	SUBCLOUD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS AND THE GROWTH OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. Michael Garstang, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and K. Levey and J. Halverson
8:15 AM	4C.2	CONVECTION INITIATION BY DENSITY CURRENTS- EFFECTS OF SHEAR ON CONVERGENCE. Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Liu
8:30 AM	4C.3	THREE-DIMENSIONAL STRUCTURE OF SQUALL-LINE WAKES IN COARE AND GATE. Sharon A. Lewis, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and M. A. LeMone
8:45 AM	4C.4	BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH 2-3 CONVECTIVE CYCLES DURING TOGA COARE. Brian R. Strahl, Purdue University, W. Lafayette, IN; and C. A. Clayson
9:00 AM	4C.5	REGIMES IN THE TOGA COARE PERIOD CAPE CYCLE. Gregory L. Roff, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J.-I. Yano
9:15 AM	4C.6	VERTICAL TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM BY CONVECTION DURING COARE IOP. Matthew T. Carr, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton
9:30 AM	4C.7	REGULATION OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH ADVECTION AND ENTRAINMENT OF SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC AIR . Dieter Kley, Inst. for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich, Germany; and H. G. J. Smit and V. Ramanathan
9:45 AM	4C.8	STATISTICS OF HIGHLY RESOLVED DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION. Adrian M. Tompkins, Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 4C: Continued (Parallel with Sessions 4A, 4D, & 5)
10:30 AM	4C.9	RAINRATE-REFLECTIVITY RELATIONSHIPS FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. Michael Biggerstaff, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
10:45 AM	4C.10	THE WSR-88D TROPICAL Z-R RELATIONSHIP IN SOUTH FLORIDA. Paul T. Willis, NOAA/AOML/CIMAS, Miami, FL
11:00 AM	4C.11	TWO CASE STUDIES OF FLASH FLOODS IN JAMAICA DURING JANUARY AND MARCH 1998. Arlene G. Laing, CIRA/Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
11:15 AM	4C.12	A TROPICAL OCEANIC CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STUDY. Mary A. Bedrick, Aeromet, Inc., Republic of the Marshall Islands; and W. S. Burgett
11:30 AM	4C.13	RADAR ECHO CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION OF GUAM DURING THE 1995-1996 WET SEASONS. Paul A. Kucera, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and A. Kruger and W. F. Krajewski
11:45 AM	4C.14	WAVELET APPROACH TO THE STOCHASTIC RECONSTRUCTION OF SUB-GRID SCALE TROPICAL RAINFALL. Chetan S. Anantharaman, Environmental Verification and Analysis Center, Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey
8:00 AM	SESSION 4D: INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES (Parallel with Session 4A, 4B, & 4C) Chairperson(s): Lloyd J. Shapiro, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
8:00 AM	4D.1	AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. Glenn H. Trapp, Aeromet, Inc., Marshall Islands; and W. S. Burgett
8:15 AM	4D.2	INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. James D. Clark, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and P. S. Chu
8:30 AM	4D.3	THE EFFECTS OF ENSO ON NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. Todd B. Kimberlain, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO
8:45 AM	4D.4	THE ROLE OF SAHEL RAINFALL AND EL NINO ON ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. C. D. Thorncroft, University of Reading, Reading, Berks, UK; and C. G. Jones
9:00 AM	4D.5	INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Spring, MD; and H. M. Van den Dool
9:15 AM	4D.6	COMPARISON OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING AUGUST 1994-1997. Jiann-Gwo Jiing, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL
9:30 AM	4D.7	SEASONAL PREDICTION MODELS FOR NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE LOCATION. Gregor S. Lehmiller, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. B. Kimberlain and J. B. Elsner
9:45 AM	4D.8	SIMULATION OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE FREQUENCIES IN AN ENSEMBLE OF GCM SIMULATIONS (1950-96). N. E. Graham, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and M. Tyree
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 4D- Continued (Parallel with Sessions 4A, 4C, & 5)
10:30 AM	4D.9	THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN DEEP-CONVECTIVE CLOUD AND TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGIES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. Stefan N. Tulich, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and T. B. Kimberlain
10:45 AM	4D.10	INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES IN A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL. Judith B. Pechmann, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and R. T. Swanson, Jr. and J. D. Horel
11:00 AM	4D.11	INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIATIONS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS SIMULATED BY A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL. K. J. J. Walsh, CSIRO, Aspendale, Vic., Australia; and K. C. Nguyen
11:15 AM	4D.12	EL NINO IMPACT ON LANDFALLING INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONES. Mark A. Saunders, University College of London, Dorking, Surrey, UK; and F. P. Roberts
11:30 AM	4D.13	ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AFFECTING SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC 1972-1997. Jennifer M. Collins, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, Dorking, Surrey, U.K; and M. A. Saunders
11:45 AM	4D.14	EFFECT OF EL NINO ON U.S. LANDFALLING HURRICANES, REVISITED. Mark C. Bove, COAPS/Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner, C. W. Landsea, X. Niu, and J. J. O'Brien
12:00 PM	4D.15	HIGHLIGHTS OF THE 1998 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON- YEAR OF LANDFALLS. Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL
12:15 PM	CONFERENCE LUNCHEON
10:30 AM	SESSION 5B: EFFECTS OF THE TROPICAL AIR/SEA INTERFACE (Parallel with Sessions 4 A, 4C, & 4D) Chairperson(s): To be announced
10:30 AM	5B.1	A COMPARISON OF BOUNDARY LAYERS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING FGGE AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING GATE. Bruce A. Albrecht, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. Yin
10:45 AM	5B.2	VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CAPE CANAVERAL SEA BREEZE. Michael W. Maier, Computer Sciences Raytheon, Patrick Air Force Base, FL
11:00 AM	5B.3	SURFACE ENERGY BUDGET AND WARM POOL RESPONSE DURING TOGA COARE. Xiaoqing Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff
11:15 AM	5B.4	LARGE SCALE VARIABILITY OF SURFACE HEAT FLUX AND UPPER OCEAN RESPONSE IN THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN DURING COARE/IOP. Shuliang Zhang, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and S. Anderson, A. Plueddemann, and R. Weller
11:30 AM	5B.5	INTERRELATION BETWEEN CLOUDS AND SURFACE FLUXES AS INFERRED FROM SATELLITE DATA DURING TOGA COARE. Guosheng Liu, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Curry, C. A. Clayson, and R. Reeder
11:45 AM	5B.6	SATELLITE ESTIMATED SURFACE HEAT BUDGETS IN THE PACIFIC WARM POOL DURING TOGA COARE. Shu-Hsien Chou, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. Zhao and M. D. Chou
12:15 PM	CONFERENCE LUNCHEON
2:15 PM	JOINT SESSION J6: MULTIDECADAL AND MILLENIAL SCALE TROPICAL CYCLONE VARIABILITY (Joint with 10th Symposium on Global Change Studies) Chairperson(s): Christopher Landsea, NOAA/HRD,Miami, FL
2:15 PM	J6.1	MILLENNIAL-SCALE VARIABILITY IN CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE LANDFALLS ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST (INVITED). Kam-biu Liu, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA
2:45 PM	J6.2	ON THE CAUSES OF MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR INCREASED ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN THE COMING DECADES (INVITED). William M. Gray, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
3:15 PM	J6.3	FREQUENCY OF TYPHOON LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CHINA DURING THE PERIOD 1470-1931. Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong; and J. E. Shi
3:30 PM	COFFEE BREAK
4:00 PM	J6.4	TRENDS IN HURRICANE LANDFALL PROBABILITIES IN THE U.S. James B. Elsner, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and K. Liu and B. L. Kocher
4:15 PM	J6.5	SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF TROPICAL STORM OCCURRENCE AND IMPACTS FOR THE US COAST. Anand Patwardhan, IIT-Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, India; and A. Rao and A. Solow
4:30 PM	J6.6	RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN DECADAL-SCALE FLUCTUATIONS IN VERTICAL SHEAR FROM NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS DATA AND ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. W. Landsea
4:45 PM	J6.7	GLOBAL AND REGIONAL TRENDS IN 1000MB AND 500MB WAVE CYCLONE FREQUENCIES, 1958-1997. Jeffrey R. Key, Boston University, Boston, MA; and A. C. K. Chan
5:00 PM	J6.8	UPWARD TREND IN GLOBAL INTENSE AND SUPER-INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE NUMBERS 1969-1997. Frank P. Roberts, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, UK; and M. A. Saunders
5:15 PM	J6.9	ECONOMIC LOSS AND HURRICANE ACTIVITY. Lixin Zeng, Arkwright Mutual Insurance Co., Waltham, MA; and P. J. Kelly
5:30 PM	J6.10	THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE DATABASE RE-ANALYSIS PROJECT. Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Anderson, G. Clark, J. Fernandez-Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer
2:15 PM	SESSION 6A: TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE II (Parallel with Sessions J6, 6B, & 6D) Chairperson(s): William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and William M. Gray, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
2:15 PM	6A.16	THE ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF HURRICANE OLIVIA'S INNER CORE. Paul D. Reasor, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and F. D. Marks, Jr.
2:30 PM	6A.17	NUMERICAL STUDY ON MESOSCALE STRUCTURES OF TYPHOON AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. Peng-Yun Wang, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, Beijing, China
2:45 PM	6A.18	MESOSCALE STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN A 10KM GRID MODEL WITH A NEW CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME. Tomoe Nasuno, Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
3:15 PM	6A.20	IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GBVTD TECHNIQUE IN NOWCASTING HURRICANE WIND FIELDS USING THE WSR-88D. Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and W. C. Lee, K. Hondl, P. Dodge, C. McAdie, and F. Marks
3:30 PM	COFFEE BREAK
4:00 PM	SESSION 6A- Continued (Parallel with Sessions J6, 6D, & 7C)
4:00 PM	6A.21	RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF THE HURRICANE EYEWALL- UNUSUAL AND COMPLEX STRUCTURE. Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
4:15 PM	6A.22	THE MAXIMUM WINDS ON GUAM DURING SUPER TYPHOON PAKA - FURTHER ARGUMENTS FOR REASSESSING WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WIND-PRESSURE RELATIONSHIPS. Charles P. Guard, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and M. A. Lander
4:30 PM	6A.23	PAPER WITHDRAWN.
4:45 PM	6A.24	DOPPLER-OBSERVED EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES IN HURRICANE DANNY NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST AND CORRESPONDING FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM INTENSITY, ORGANIZATION, AND PRECIPITATION. Keith G. Blackwell, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and J. M. Medlin
5:00 PM	6A.25	AIRBORNE DOPPLER OBSERVATIONS OF INTENSITY CHANGE IN EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE GUILLERMO. John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
5:15 PM	6A.26	STRENGTH ESTIMATES FOR ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. Mark A. Croxford, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
2:15 PM	SESSION 6B: SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND STRESSES (Parallel with Session J6, 6A, & 6D) Chairperson(s): Roger Pielke, Jr, NCAR, Boulder, CO
2:15 PM	6B.1	THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER AND ITS REDUCTION. Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Haidian District, Beijing, China
2:30 PM	6B.2	ESTIMATES OF RELATIVE CHANGE IN POTENTIAL HURRICANE DAMAGE. David P. Whitehead, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner
2:45 PM	6B.3	THE THREAT TO LIFE IN INLAND AREAS OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. Edward N. Rappaport, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. Fuchs and M. Lorentson
3:00 PM	6B.4	WEATHER EXTREMES AND THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY- IMPACTS AND RESPONSES. Richard J. Murname, Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Inc., St. George, Bermuda; and D. L. Malmquist
3:15 PM	6B.5	DESIGN, IMPLEMENTATION, AND OPERATION OF A MODULAR, INTEGRATED TROPICAL CYCLONE HAZARD MODEL. Charles C. Watson Jr., Watson Technical Consulting, Inc., Rincon, GA; and M. E. Johnson
3:30 PM	COFFEE BREAK
2:15 PM	SESSION 6D: TROPICAL WAVES AND INSTABILITIES (Parallel with Sessions J6, 6A, & 6D) Chairperson(s): Harry H. Hendon, NOAA/NWS/CDC, Boulder, CO
2:15 PM	6D.1	EVIDENCE OF A 6-9-DAY EASTERLY WAVE REGIME OVER WEST AFRICA AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC - APPLICATION TO GATE. Serge Janicot, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France; and A. Diedhiou
2:30 PM	6D.2	GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY OF SIGN REVERSALS OF THE MERIDIONAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY GRADIENT. Michael J. Dickinson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari
2:45 PM	6D.3	CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED EQUATORIAL WAVES. Matthew Wheeler, PAOS/University of Colorado and NOAA, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis and P. J. Webster
3:00 PM	6D.4	THE EFFECTS OF LARGE-SCALE TROPICAL CONVECTION ON THE CIRCULATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE- A SHALLOW WATER MODEL ANALYSIS. Katherine A. Harris, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
3:15 PM	6D.5	ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE SEASON OVER WEST AFRICA AND THEIR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WET AND DRY YEARS. Jeremy P. Grist, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
3:30 PM	COFFEE BREAK
4:00 PM	SESSION 6D: Continued (Parallel with Sessions J6, 6A, & 7C)
4:00 PM	6D.6	SIMULATION OF A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE; SENSITIVITY TO THE PARAMETERIZATION OF CONVECTION. J. F. Gueremy, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Ceron
4:15 PM	6D.7	SIMULATING EASTERLY WAVES DURING LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER OF 1996 OVER WEST AFRICA WITH A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL.. G .S. Jenkins, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. Patti
4:30 PM	6D.8	BACKGROUND FLOW EFFECTS ON TROPICAL EASTERLY DISTURBANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. Steven T. Skubis, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro and J. Molinari
4:45 PM	6D.9	CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, SUBGRIDSCALE TRIGGERING ENERGY, AND 'STRATIFORM INSTABILITY' IN A SIMPLE TROPICAL WAVE MODEL. Brian E. Mapes, NOAA/CDC and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
5:00 PM	6D.10	DEVELOPMENT OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE DISTURBANCES OVER THE SUMMERTIME TROPICAL NORTHWEST PACIFIC. Adam H. Sobel, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton
4:00 PM	SESSION 7C: MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS - OBSERVATIONS AND MODELLING (Parallel with Sessions 6A, 6D, & J^6 Chairperson(s): J. Michael Fritsch, Penn State University, University Park, PA
4:00 PM	7C.1	NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF 15 DECEMBER 1992 TOGA COARE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. Badrinath Nagarajan, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and M. K. Yau and D. L. Zhang
4:15 PM	7C.2	SENSITIVITY OF AIR-SEA FLUXES IN A MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CONVECTION. Shuyi S. Chen, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL
4:30 PM	7C.3	NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE TRIGGERING OF A SQUALL LINE DURING TOGA-COARE. C. Lac, Meteo-France/CNRM, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Lafore and J. L. Redelsperger
4:45 PM	7C.4	SELF-AGGREGATION AND LARGE-SCALE CONTROL OF TROPICAL DEEP CONVECTION- NEW MODELING RESULTS. Hui Su, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton and S. S. Chen
5:00 PM	7C.5	BALANCED DYNAMICS AND GRAVITY-WAVE PARADIGMS FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. Stephen D. Jascourt, Madison, WI
5:15 PM	7C.6	TROPICAL ISLAND CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT TOPOGRAPHY, PART II- EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. James W. Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. D. Keenan and R. E. Carbone
5:30 PM	7C.7	INFRARED CLOUD TOP SIGNATURES OF EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN THE TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC- COMPARISON WITH RADAR REFLECTIVITY. Thomas M. Rickenbach, Univ. of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and L. M. V. de Carvalho
5:45 PM	7C.8	ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION IN A TROPICAL REGION. K .C. Mendes, Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos, Fortaleza, Brazil; and A. A. Costa
6:00 PM	POSTER SESSION P7A: TROPICAL WEATHER AND CLIMATE (IceBreaker/Cash Bar)
	P7A.1	MEASUREMENTS FROM THE SECOND TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC ARM SITE. J. H. Mather, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and T. P. Ackerman, W. E. Clements, and F. J. Barnes
	P7A.2	EASTERLY WAVE ACTIVITY AND THE ITCZ. Guojun Gu, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang
	P7A.3	OBSERVED EFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON APPROACHING TRADE WIND BANDS. Jessica L. Schauer, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and T. A. Schroeder
	P7A.4	IDEALISED MOIST AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE LIFE-CYCLES. R. J. Cornforth, University of Reading, Reading, Berks, UK; and C. D. Thorncroft
	P7A.5	INHERENT COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN- POTENTIAL. P. J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Loschnigg and A. M. Moore
	P7A.5a	IDEALIZED VORTEX STUDIES OF THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITIES. Kevin J. E. Walsh, CSIRO, Aspendale, Australia; and B. F. Ryan
	P7A.6	THE INFLUENCE OF THE MADDEN AND JULIAN OSCILLATION ON MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS OVER SOUTH AMERICA. Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and J. E. Schemm
	P7A.7	THE STRUCTURE AND PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MJO IN THE CSU AGCM. Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall
	P7A.8	SENSITIVITY OF TROPICAL CONVECTION TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FLOW. A .M. Tompkins, Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and G. C. Craig
	P7A.9	TIMESCALES OF ADJUSTMENT TO RADIATIVE-CONVECTIVE EQUILIBRIUM IN THE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE. Adrian M. Tompkins, NMO, Hamburg, Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and G. C. Craig
	P7A.10	CHOICE OF SOUTH ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON INDICES. Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Z. Fan
	P7A.11	ENSO-INFLUENCE ON HURRICANES IN THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC. Todd Mitchell, JISAO, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace
	P7A.12	THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE VORTICES. Kevin J. E. Walsh, CSIRO, Aspendale, Australia; and J. J. Katzfey
	P7A.13	EL NINO AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL AND HYBRID CYCLONE TORNADO EVENTS IN FLORIDA. Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL
	P7A.14	VERIFICATION OF THE PREDICTION OF THE RISK OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE STRIKES ALONG THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE PERIOD 1985-1997. John C. Freeman, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. F. Hasling
	P7A.15	TELECONNECTIONS BETWEEN ENSO AND THE ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY, INTENSITY, AND CYCLOGENESIS. Danny J. Garcia, U. S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith and A. E. Strong
	P7A.16	GENERATION OF LONG-LIVED MESOSCALE WARM-CORE VORTICES IN IDEALIZED NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS. Stephen D. Jascourt, Madison, WI
	P7A.17	ANNUAL CYCLE OF THE ZONAL WIND FIELD OVER WEST AFRICA. Jeremy Grist, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and S. Nicholson
	P7A.18	PAPER WITHDRAWN.
	P7A.19	EFFECTS OF INTERACTIVE OCEAN AND CLOUD ON TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS. Ning Zeng, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin
6:00 PM	POSTER SESSION P7B: EXPLORING TROPICAL CYCLONES (Icebreaker/Cash Bar)
	P7B.1	BISPECTRAL SATELLITE TECHNIQUE FOR DELINEATING INTENSE CONVECTION- APPLICATIONS TO TROPICAL CYCLONES. Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Olander
	P7B.2	THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ODT). Timothy Olander, CIMSS/University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Velden
	P7B.3	THE INFLUENCE OF ENSO ON EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL.; and J. J. O'Brien
	P7B.4	APPLICATION OF GUST FACTOR ANALYSIS TO HURRICANE WIND DATA. Mark R. Conder, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson and D. A. Smith
	P7B.5	A POTENTIAL VORTICITY DIAGNOSIS OF TYPHOON TRACK IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. Hung-Chi Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and M. L. Lu
	P7B.6	ALTERNATIVE ORIGINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ORIGIN IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. Todd B. Kimberlain, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and C. K. Kaufman
	P7B.7	THE DETECTION OF HURRICANE ASYMMETRIES FROM SIMULATED AIRBORNE DROPWINDSONDE SOUNDINGS. Helga Weindl, University of Munich, Munich, Bavaria, Germany; and R. K. Smith and M. A. Pedder
	P7B.8	TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION OVER LAND? A CASE STUDY OF HURRICANE DANNY (1997). Eyad H. Atallah, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
	P7B.9	EYE STRUCTURE OF TYPHOON PAKA AS VIEWED BY THE KWAJALEIN DOPPLER RADAR. Wesley S. Burgett, Aeromet, Inc., Marshall Islands; and G. H. Trapp
	P7B.10	STRUCTURE AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WITHIN TYPHOON YANCY (T9313) IN THE EARLY DEVELOPING STAGE OBSERVED BY THE KEIFU MARU RADAR. Kazumasa Mori, Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and S. Ishigaki, T. Maehira, M. Ohya, and H. Takeuchi
	P7B.11	DOMINANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTER RAINBANDS RELATED TO TORNADIC AND NON-TORNADIC MESOSCALE CIRCULATION FAMILIES. Scott M. Spratt, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and D. W. Sharp
	P7B.12	EXPERIMENTS WITH A SELF-ADAPTIVE MULTIGRID BAROTROPIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK MODEL. Scott R. Fulton, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY; and N. M. Burgess and B. L. Mitchell
	P7B.13	A COMPARISON OF RAWINSONDE WIND PROFILES VERSUS VVP RADAR DERIVED WIND PROFILES DURING AN INTENSIFICATION PERIOD OF TYPHOON PAKA. Jerome C. Jacques, Aeromet Inc., Tulsa, OK; and S. J. Carpenter
	P7B.14	CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRIES IN MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONES ASSOCIATED WITH MOTION AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. John A. Knaff, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and R. M. Zehr
	P7B.15	SUPERTYPHOON DALE (1996)- LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ON GENESIS. Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. E. Bracken
	P7B.16	HURRICANE WIND FIELDS DERIVED FROM WSR-88D. Todd R. Flanagan, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson and D. A. Smith
	P7B.17	TROPICAL CYCLONE PAKA'S INITIAL EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT (10-12 DECEMBER, 1997). Edward Rodgers, NASA /GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Halverson, J. Simpson, W. Olson, and H. Pierce
	P7B.18	A REEVALUATION OF THE GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA TROPICAL CYCLONE OF 2 OCTOBER 1898. Al Sandrik, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and B. Jarvinen
	P7B.19	ON THE INTENSITY CHANGE OF TYPHOON FLO (1990). Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taipei; and H. J. Cheng and W. P. Huang
	P7B.20	THE ROLE OF WESTERLY WIND BURSTS AND WIND SPEED MAXIMA ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. Glenn H. Trapp, Aeromet, Inc., Marshall Islands; and W. S. Burgett and P. B. Wahner
	P7B.21	TORNADO PRODUCTION BY EXITING TROPICAL CYCLONES. Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK
	P7B.22	SURFACE-BASED REMOTE SENSING OF A LANDFALLING TROPICAL STORM. Bruce Albrecht, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and T. Faber, A. Savtchenko, D. Churchill, F. Marks, and P. Black
	P7B.23	PAPER WITHDRAWN.
	P7B.24	ON INTENSITY CHANGE OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES. Yuqing Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and G. J. Holland
	P7B.25	ARE OBSERVATIONS ABOVE 45,000 FT. NEEDED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK PREDICTION?. Yunqing Zhang, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and K. A. Emanuel
	P7B.26	SENSITIVITY OF A SIMULATION OF HURRICANE BOB (1991) TO CLOUD MICROPHYSICS AND PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATIONS. Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao and B. S. Ferrier
	P7B.27	MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST. Gary D. Skwira, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and D. A. Smith and R. E. Peterson
	P7B.28	ON THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF HURRICANE FELIX AND IRIS 1995. C. D. Thorncroft, University of Reading, Reading, Berks, UK; and S. C. Jones
	P7B.29	STABLE ISOTOPES FROM FLIGHTS IN HURRICANES OLIVIA AND OPAL. Stanley D. Gedzelman, City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. R. Lawrence, J. Gamache, R. Black, and M. Black
	P7B.30	AN EXAMINATION OF FIELDS DERIVED FROM THE GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM ANALYSIS FOR OPAL (1995). John Persing, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and R. E. Tuleya
	P7B.31	TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC BASINS. Dayton G. Vincent, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and A. H. Fink and P. Speth
	P7B.32	TROPICAL EASTERLY WAVE ACTIVITY OBSERVED USING NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS DATA. Lourdes B. Aviles, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. Ting
	P7B.33	NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS WITH HURRICANE-LIKE VORTICES IN OBSERVED ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL SHEAR. Sarah Jones, Univ.ersity of Munich, Munich, Munich, Germany
	P7B.34	PAPER WITHDRAWN.
	P7B.35	A LOOK AT GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY- BASIN INTERCOMPARISONS AND RELATIONSHIPS WITH ENSO, QBO, AND OTHER LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE FEATURES. Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and C. P. Guard
	P7B.36	PAPER WITHDRAWN.
	P7B.37	ON THE ELECTRIFICATION, VERTICAL REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE AND ENERGETICS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN FORMING TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVER (1993). Jeffrey B. Halverson, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Simpson, H. Pierce, C. Morales, S. Stewart, and T. Iguchi
WED 13 JAN___________________________
8:00 AM	HORTON LECTURE
8:45 AM	SESSION 8C: TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FORECASTING (Joint with Session 8A, 8B, & 8D) Chairperson(s): Lixion Avila, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL
8:45 AM	8C.1	THE USE OF SATELLITE MICROWAVE RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS TO PREDICT EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY. Derek A. West, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
9:00 AM	8C.2	OPERATIONAL USE OF UWISC/CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FIELDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING AT THE TPC/NHC. Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/HRD/TPC, Miami, FL; and C. Velden
9:15 AM	8C.3	IMPROVING THE QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. Raymond M. Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO
9:30 AM	8C.4	ENVIRONMENTAL INTERACTIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AS DETERMINED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. Roger T. Edson, Analysis & Technology, Inc./Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Asan, Guam; and S. B. Cocks, D. W. Schiber, C. S. Velden, and J. D. Hawkins
9:45 AM	8C.5	USING AVAPS TO OBSERVE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERNS LINKED TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION. Richard G. Henning, 53rd Weather Squadron, Ocean Springs, MS
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 8C- Continued (Parallel with Sessions 8B, 8D & 9A)
10:30 AM	8C.6	SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION AS REVEALED BY HOURLY DIGITAL DVORAK ANALYSIS. Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam
10:45 AM	8C.7	TECHNIQUES FOR INCORPORATING SSM/I IMAGERY INTO DVORAK TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. Stephen B. Cocks, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Asan, Guam; and I. Johnson, R. Edson, M. A. Lander, and C. P. Guard
11:00 AM	8C.8	RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES- A CASE STUDY OF SUPERTYPHOON FLO DURING TCM-90. David W. Titley, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry
11:15 AM	8C.9	CLIMATOLOGICAL AND SYNOPTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria
11:30 AM	8C.10	INCORPORATION OF AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IN A STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME. Mark DeMaria, NOAA/TPC, Miami, FL; and F. M. Horsfall and E. N. Rappaport
11:45 PM	8C.11	STATISTICALLY FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. Kevin R. Petty, NCAR, Boulder, CO
12:00 PM	LUNCH BREAK
1:00 PM	SESSION 8C: Continued (Parallel with Session 9A, 10B, & 10D)
1:00 PM	8C.12	THE BMRC HIGH RESOLUTION TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION SYSTEM - TC-LAPS. Noel E. Davidson, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and H. C. Weber
1:15 PM	8C.13	AN EXAMINATION OF FIELDS DERIVED FROM THE GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM. John Persing, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
1:30 PM	8C.14	EFFECTS OF RESOLUTION ON THE GFDL HURRICANE FORECAST SYSTEM. Robert E. Tuleya, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. A. Bender and Y. Kurihara
1:45 PM	8C.15	PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE GFDL COUPLED HURRICANE OCEAN PREDICTION SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and W. Shen and M. A. Bender
2:00 PM	8C.16	THE USE OF ENSEMBLES IN ASSIMILATING TROPICAL CYCLONE DATA. Brian J. Etherton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop
2:15 PM	8C.17	EVALUATION OF A SIMPLE TECHNIQUE FOR PREDICTING THE PEAK INTENSITY AND THE TIMING OF PEAK INTENSITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES OF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC. Garth A. McCulloch, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam, Santa Rita, Guam; and S. B. Cocks, P. Hildebrand, and M. A. Lander
2:30 PM	8C.18	A NEW METHOD FOR COMPARING TROPICAL FORECAST ERRORS. Charles E. Williford, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and Z. Zhang
2:45 PM	8C.19	PREDICTION AND DIAGNOSIS OF THE MOTION CHANGE AND INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE KATRINA. Jeff Callaghan, Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; and N. E. Davidson
3:00 PM	COFFEE BREAK
9:00 AM	SESSION 8A: MCTEX (Parallel with Sessions 8B, 8C, & 8D) Chairperson(s): Tom Keenan, BMRC, Australia
9:00 AM	8A.1	TROPICAL ISLAND CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT TOPOGRAPHY, PART I- SEA BREEZES AND EARLY CONVECTION. R. E. Carbone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. D. Keenan, J. Hacker, and J. Wilson
9:15 AM	8A.2	ISLAND BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPMENT AND CIRCULATIONS DURING MCTEX. Robert Schafer, Univ. of Technology Sydney, Sydney, ., Australia
9:30AM	8A.3	LIFECYCLES AND RADIATIVE IMPACTS OF ANVIL CIRRUS OUTFLOW DURING MCTEX. Michael P. Jensen, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and T. P. Ackerman and S. Sekelsky
9:45 AM	8A.4	RADAR AND ELECTRICAL OBSERVATIONS OF MCTEX THUNDERSTORMS. David A. Ahijevych, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge and L. D. Carey
	COFFEE BREAK
9:00 AM	SESSION 8B: INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS IN THE TROPICS (Parallel with Sessions 8A, 8C, & 8D) Chairperson(s): Bin Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and Chidong Zhang, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL
9:00 AM	8B.1	A NEW PARADIGM FOR ENSO TURNABOUT. Bin Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Wu and R. Lukas
9:15 AM	8B.2	A THEORY FOR THE TROPICAL TROPOSPHERIC BIENNIAL OSCILLATION. C.-P. Chang, NPS, Monterey, CA; and T. Li
9:30 AM	8B.3	INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL IN PUERTO RICO. Matthew M. Carter, Florida State Univ., Tallahasee, FL; and J. Elsner
9:45 AM	8B.4	THE RELATIONSHIP OF INDIAN RAINFALL AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE:BIENNIAL AND INTERANNUAL OSCILLATIONS, SECULAR CHANGES AND THE DEFINITION OF A NEW INDEX. Christina Clark, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster and J. Cole
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 8B: Continued (Parallel with Sessions 8C, 8D, & 9A)
10:30 AM	8B.5	SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF ENSO IMPACTS USING A COUPLED, NESTED REGIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL. Steven D. Cocke, COAPS/Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. E. LaRow
10:45 AM	8B.6	TROPICAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TROPOSPHERIC BIENNIAL OSCILLATION AND ENSO. Tim Li, NPS, Monterey, CA; and C.-P. Chang
11:00 AM	8B.7	INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE SHORT RAINS OVER EAST AFRICA. Liqiang Sun, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and N. Graham and S. Mason
11:15 AM	8B.8	SEASONAL OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL SIMULATION OF THE 1986-1989 ENSO EVENT UTILIZING A PHYSICALLY INITIALIZED STATE. David R. Bachiochi, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, Florida
11:30 AM	8B.9	ORBITAL CONTROLS ON THE TROPICAL CLIMATE. Amy C. Clement, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and R. Seager and M. A. Cane
11:45 AM	8B.10	INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF COLD CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL DURING THE WARM SEASON OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. Julio Cesar Rodriguez, IMADES, Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico; and M. W. Douglas
12:00 PM	8B.11	THE UNUSUALLY ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON OF 1997/98 OVER THE AUSTRALIAN REGION- OVERVIEW AND CASE STUDY. Milton Speer, BMRC, Darlinghurst, Australia; and L. Leslie
12:15 PM	LUNCH BREAK
9:00 AM	SESSION 8D: CLOUD-RESOLVING NUMERICAL MODELS OF CONVECTION (Parallel with Sessions 8A, 8B, & 8C) Chairperson(s): Chris Bretherton, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
9:00 AM	8D.1	EFFECTS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CHARACTERISTICS ON RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT IN SEMI-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONES. J. Marshall Shepherd, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
9:15 AM	8D.2	THE INFLUENCE OF INERTIAL STABILITY ON THE CUMULUS TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM. John R. Mecikalski, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli
9:30 AM	8D.3	DISSIPATION OF STRATIFORM CLOUDS. Kuan-Man Xu, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall
9:45 AM	8D.4	PRECIPITATION PROCESSES IN TROPICAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. Harry T. Ochs III, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and N. F. Laird, R. M. Rauber, and L. J. Miller
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 8D: Continued (Parallel with Sessions 8B, 8C & 9A)
10:30 AM	8D.5	A SENSITIVITY STUDY OF EQUILIBRIUM STATES OF TROPICAL WATER AND ENERGY CYCLES SIMULATED BY A 2-D AND A 3-D CLOUD RESOLVING MODEL. Chung-Lin Shie, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao, J. Simpson, and D. Johnson
10:45 AM	8D.7	THREE-DIMENSIONAL CLOUD RESOLVING MODEL SIMULATIONS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DURING A TOGA-COARE WESTERLY WIND BURST. M. E. Gray, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks, UK
11:00 AM	8D.8	INTERCOMPARISON OF MULTI-DAY SIMULATIONS OF CONVECTION DURING TOGA COARE WITH SEVERAL CLOUD-RESOLVING AND SINGLE-COLUMN MODELS. Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. M. Lazarus
11:15 AM	8D.9	COMBINED OCEAN-CLOUD RESOLVING MODELING OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL COUPLED SYSTEM. Alexandre A. Costa, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton, R. A. Pielke, Sr., and H. Jiang
11:30 AM	8D.10	THE STUDY OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION, RADIATION, AND CLOUD MICROPHYSICS IN SIMULATIONS OF GATE AND TOGA-COARE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. Daniel E. Johnson, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao and J. Simpson
11:45 PM	8D.11	IMPACTS OF LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION ON CONVECTION- A 2-D CLOUD RESOLVING MODELING STUDY. Xiaofan Li, Space Applications Corp., Greenbelt, MD; and C. Sui and K. Lau
12:00 PM	LUNCH BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 9A: TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE III (Parallel with Sessions 8B, 8C, & 8D) Chairperson(s): Wayne Schubert, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and Charles P. Guard, University of Guam, Guam
10:30 AM	9A.27	IMPROVING HURRICANE FORECASTS UTILIZING GOES 8/9 DERIVED HIGH-DENSITY WIND VECTORS- A COLLABORATIVE VENTURE BETWEEN THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON AND THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION. Bradley D. Hoggatt, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli, C. S. Velden, and J. Derber
10:45 AM	9A.28	SPECIFICATION OF INITIAL HURRICANE STRUCTURE IN NCEP'S GLOBAL MODEL. Mukut B. Mathur, NOAA/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
11:00 AM	9A.29	INITIAL STRUCTURES WITHIN A MATURE HURRICANE VORTEX GENERATED BY A VARIATIONAL INITIALIZATION SCHEME. Xiaolei Zou, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and Q. Xiao
11:15 AM	9A.30	VORTEX TRACKING SEMISPECTRAL HURRICANE MODELS. Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
11:30 AM	9A.31	SUPERGRADIENT FLOWS IN THE EYEWALL OF A SIMULATED HURRICANE. Da-Lin Zhang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and Y. Liu and M. K. Yau
11:45 AM	9A.32	NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURES OF HURRICANE ANDREW (1992). M.K. Yau, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and Y. L. Liu and D. L. Zhang
12:00 PM	LUNCH BREAK
1:00 PM	SESSION 9A- Continued (Parallel with Sessions 9A, 10B, & 10D)
1:00 PM	9A.33	EXAMINATION OF A SEMISPECTRAL NUMERICAL METHOD FOR MODELING HURRICANE NEAR-CORE DYNAMICS. J. Marc Hidalgo, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
1:15 PM	9A.34	A NUMERICAL STUDY OF TROPICAL-CYCLONE STRUCTURE- CONCENTRIC SECONDARY WIND MAXIMA. Harry C. Weber, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
1:30 PM	9A.35	POTENTIAL VORTICITY MIXING IN HURRICANES- AN OVERVIEW. Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, S. R. Fulton, J. P. Kossin, and R. K. Taft
1:45 PM	9A.36	ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE. William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and E. A. Ritchie
2:00 PM	9A.37	CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRIES AND HURRICANE EVOLUTION IN A THREE-LAYER MODEL. Lloyd J. Shapiro, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
2:15 PM	9A.38	HURRICANE EVOLUTION VIA POTENTIAL VORTICITY ASYMMETRIES IN A THREE-DIMENSIONAL ASYMMETRIC MODEL. J. Dominique Moeller, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery
2:30 PM	9A.39	POTENTIAL VORTICITY MIXING IN HURRICANES- COMPARISON OF NONDIVERGENT AND DIVERGENT BAROTROPIC VORTICES. Scott R. Fulton, Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY; and W. H. Schubert and M. T. Montgomery
2:45 PM	9A.40	ON THE STABILITY OF HURRICANE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS. James P. Kossin, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO
3:00 PM	COFFEE BREAK
1:00 PM	SESSION 10B: INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY I (Parallel with Sessions 8C, 10B, & 10D) Chairperson(s): Jun-Ichi Yano, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
1:00 AM	10B.1	MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATIONS AS A SELF-CONSISTENT GILL PROBLEM. Jun-Ichi Yano, Monash University, Victoria, Australia; and J. C. McWilliams
1:15 PM	10B.2	A MECHANISM OF HIERARCHICAL ORGANIZATION OF SUPER CLOUD CLUSTER AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION. Kazuyoshi Ohuchi, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Yamasaki
1:30 PM	10B.3	NONLINEAR KELVIN WAVES AND INSTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS IN THE EQUATORIAL TROPOSPHERE. Han-Ru Cho, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
1:45 PM	10B.4	THE COUPLING BETWEEN CONVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) OBSERVED DURING TOGA-COARE IOP. Wen-wen Tung, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Yanai
2;00 PM	10B.5	THE TRIGGERING AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION IN THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION. Susan R. Kemball-Cook, University of California, Livermore, CA; and B. C. Weare
2:15 PM	10B.6	TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING BY OCEANIC CONVECTION, INTRA SEASONAL OSCILLATION S AND ENSO WARM EVENT INITIATION. Sereno A. Barr-Kumarakulasinghe, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY
2:30 PM	10B.7	A STUDY OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS IN GLOBAL DEEP CONVECTION AND SCHUMANN RESONANCE INTENSITY. Ebby K. Anyamba, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and E. Williams, J. Susskind, A. Fraser-Smith, and M. Fullekrug
2:45 PM	10B.8	AN ASSESSMENT OF INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATIONS AT THE MANUS ARM SITE. James H. Mather, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and T. P. Ackerman and M. P. Jensen
3:00 PM	COFFEE BREAK
3:30 PM	10B.9	TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL AIR-SEA EXCHANGES DURING THE 1997 PACIFIC WARMING. C. H. Sui, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Lau, S. H. Chou, and Z. Wang
3:45 PM	10B.10	MEDIUM RANGE PREDICTION OF THE MJOWITHDRAWN. Harry H. Hendon, CDC, Boulder, CO; and B. Liebmann, M. Newmann, J. Glick, and J. Schemm
4:00 PM	10B.11	SURFACE WIND AND SST COUPLING AT INTRASEASONAL TIME SCALES- RESULTS FROM AN OBSERVATIONAL STUDY. Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall
4:15 PM	10B.12	MAINTENANCE OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY- IMPACT OF MID-LATITUDE STORMS. Johnny W. B. Lin, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin and N. Zeng
4:30 PM	10B.13	MODULATION OF INTRASEASONAL (25-70 DAY) PROCESSES BY THE SUPERIMPOSED ENSO CYCLE ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN. Jon M. Schrage, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and D. G. Vincent, A. Fink, and C. A. Clayson
4:45 PM	10B.14	INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY OF ERS SCATTEROMETER WIND STRESS AND ITS EFFECT ON LONG-TERM PERTURBATIONS IN THE THERMOCLINE DEPTH OF THE. Rainer Bleck, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. Gottschalck and C. Zhang
1:30 PM	SESSION 10D: FEEDBACKS IN THE TROPICAL CLIMATE SYSTEM Chairperson(s): Richard Seager, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY
1:30 PM	10D.1	WATER VAPOR BUDGET AND CLIMATE FEEDBACKS. Richard S. Lindzen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and A. Y. Hou, J. Joiner, and M. D. Chou
1:45 PM	10D.2	WATER VAPOR FEEDBACK IN THE TROPICS. V. Ramanathan, University of California, La Jolla, CA; and A. K. Inamdar
2:00 PM	10D.3	HOW MUCH CAN REDUCTIONS IN TROPOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR CONTENT COOL TROPICAL CLIMATE?. Richard Seager, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and A. C. Clement and M. A. Cane
2:15 PM	10D.4	REGULATION OF MAXIMUM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. Joachim Kuettner, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and V. Ramanathan
2:30 PM	10D.5	ON THE ROLE OF CLOUDS, RADIATION AND CIRCULATION ON THE SENSITIVITY OF THE CLIMATE IN THE TROPICS. Kristin Larson, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann
2:45 PM	10D.6	THE RESPONSE OF THE TROPICAL OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM TO 3 X CO2 USING EQUILIBRIUM ASYNCHRONOUS COUPLING. Stephen Vavrus, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and Z. Liu and J. Kutzbach
3:00 PM	COFFEE
3:30 PM	SESSION 10A: TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS I (Parallel with 10B, 10C, & 10D) Chairperson(s): Dominique Moeller, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
3:30 PM	10A.1	NON-AXISYMMETRIC VORTEX ADJUSTMENT- NONLINEAR DYNAMICS. Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and J. Enagonio
3:45 PM	10A.2	TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS VIA CONVECTIVELY FORCED VORTEX ROSSBY WAVES IN A PRIMITIVE EQUATION MODEL. J. Enagonio, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
4:00 PM	10A.3	STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and D. Milot
4:15 PM	10A.4	HURRICANE DOLLY (1996) AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 (1997)- A COMPARISON OF DEVELOPING AND NONDEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS. W. Edward Bracken, SUNY, Albany, NY
4:30 PM	10A.5	TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THE ITCZ IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. L. M. Briegel, Penn State University, University Park, PA
4:45 PM	10A.6	EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. John Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro, S. Skubis, and M. Dickinson
3:30 PM	SESSION 10C: TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING I (Parallel with Session 10A, 10B, & 10D) Chairperson(s): T. N. Krishnamurti, FSU, Tallahassee, FL
3:30 PM	10C.1	SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING -- APPLICATION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. A. J. Bannister, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Australia; and M. A. Boothe, L. E. Carr, III, and R. L. Elsberry
3:45 PM	10C.2	FORMULATION OF A NEW INITIALIZATION FOR THE GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION MODEL. Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princteon, NJ; and Y. Kurihara and R. E. Tuleya
4:00 PM	10C.3	RESULTS OF GENERALIZING A SEMISPECTRAL SHALLOW-WATER BAROTROPIC HURRICANE TRACKING MODEL INTO A TWO LAYER BAROCLINIC MODEL. Robert W. Jones, NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby
4:15 PM	10C.4	IMPACT OF MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TYPHOON TRACK FORECASTING. Kang-Ning Huang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, T. C. Yeh, and D. S. Chen
4:30 PM	10C.5	A VARIATIONAL ASSIMILATION FOR BAROTROPIC MODEL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST. Y. Gregoris, METEO-FRANCE/Centre des Cyclones tropicaux, Ste Clotilde, France; and S. Greard, A. Lasserre-Bigorry, and I. Soulan
4:45 PM	10C.6	REAL TIME HURRICANE TRACK TARGETING USING A VICBAR ENSEMBLE. Sharanya J. Majumdar, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, and Z. Toth
3:30 PM	SESSION 10E: CONVECTIVE AND RADIATIVE PROCESSES (Parallel with Sessions 10A, 10B, &10C) Chairperson(s): Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and Thomas P. Ackerman, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA
3:30 PM	10E.1	RADIATIVE FLUXES AND HEATING RATES DURING TOGA COARE OVER THE INTENSIVE FLUX ARRAY. Jason E. Burks, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. K. Krueger
3:45 PM	10E.2	VARIATIONS IN SURFACE DOWNWELLING SOLAR RADIATION OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. Thomas P. Ackerman, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. H. Mather and D. Mazeroski
4:00 PM	10E.3	NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF RADIATIVE-CONVECTIVE EQUILIBRIUM IN THE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE. Xiping Zeng, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond
4:15 PM	10E.4	THE DIURNAL CYCLE IN TOGA-COARE- REGIONAL SCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS. Wei-Kuo Tao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and Y. Jia, C. Chen, and C. H. Sui
4:30 PM	10E.5	RADIATION FLUXES IN A TROPICAL CLOUD CLUSTER RETRIEVED FROM AIRBORNE RADAR DATA. PART I- VALIDATION AND SENSITIVITY TESTS. Guojun Gu, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL
4:45 PM	10E.6	RADIATION FLUXES IN A TROPICAL CLOUD CLUSTER RETRIEVED FROM AIRBORNE RADAR DATA. PART II- THREE-DIMENSIONAL RADIATIVE HEATING AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE ENVIRONMENT. Chidong Zhang, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and G. Gu
6:00 PM	RECEPTION (Cash Bar)
7:30 PM	AMS ANNUAL AWARDS BANQUET
THU 14 JAN___________________________
8:00 AM	WALTER ORR ROBERTS LECTURE
8:45 AM	SESSION 11C: TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING II (Parallel with Sessions 11A, 11D, & 12B) Chairperson(s): Richard Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL
8:45 AM	11C.1	RECENT IMPROVEMENTS OF THE TYPHOON FORECAST SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU IN TAIWAN. D.-S. Chen, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. N. Huang, T. C. Yeh, M. S. Peng, and S. W. Chang
9:00 AM	11C.2	TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING USING AN ENSEMBLE OF DYNAMIC MODELS - 1998 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON . James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA
9:15 AM	11C.3	THE IMPACT OF DROPSONDES ON UK METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF HURRICANES ERIKA AND LINDA. Julian T. Heming, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK
9:30 AM	11C.4	ENSEMBLE PREDICTION OF HURRICANE OPAL'S TRACK AND INTENSITY. Mohan K. Ramamurthy, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. F. Jewett
9:45 AM	11C.5	ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION- VORTEX PERTURBATIONS AND BAROCLINIC MODES. Kevin K. W. Cheung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 11C- Continued (Parallel with Sessions 11A, 11D & 12B)
10:30 AM	11C.6	SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING-2- ANALYSIS OF LARGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS BY NOGAPS AND GFDN IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING 1997. Lester E. Carr III, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. G. Schnabel and R. L. Elsberry
10:45 AM	11C.7	ENSEMBLE-BASED PRODUCTS TO IMPROVE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING. Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
11:00 AM	11C.8	THE BOGUSCANE- A SERIOUS PROBLEM WITH THE NCEP MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODEL IN THE TROPICS. John L. Beven II, TPC, Miami, Florida
11:15 AM	11C.9	IMPACT OF HIGH DENSITY GOES WINDS ON GFDL HURRICANE FORECASTS. Brian J. Soden, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, New Jersey; and C. S. Velden
11:30 AM	11C.10	A NEW NESTED SHALLOW-WATER MODEL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK PREDICTION. Markus Adams, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
11:45 AM	11C.11	AN EVALUATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING SKILL OF OPERATIONAL NCEP GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS. Timothy P. Marchok, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and S. J. Lord
12:00 PM	LUNCH BREAK
9:00 AM	SESSION 11A: EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (Parallel with Sessions 11B, 11C, & 11D) Chairperson(s): Patrick Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA
9:00 AM	11A.1	THE CATASTROPHIC 1775 HURRICANE(S)- THE SEARCH FOR DATA AND UNDERSTANDING. Edward N. Rappaport, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and A. Ruffman
9:15 AM	11A.2	THE SAXBY GALE OF 1869 IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES -- A CASE STUDY OF FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE BAY OF FUNDY. George S. Parkes, Environment Canada, Bedford, Nova Scotia, Canada; and L. A. Ketch, C. T. O'Reilly, J. Shaw, and A. Ruffman
9:30 AM	11A.3	THE TRANSITION OF THE SAXBY GALE INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. Jim Abraham, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and G. Parkes and P. Bowyer
9:45 AM	11A.4	TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MID-LATITUDE CHARACTERISTICS AND PHYSICAL MECHANISMS CONTRIBUTING TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC. Peter M. Klein, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr and R. L. Elsberry
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 11A: Continued (Parallel with Sessions 11C, 11D, & 12B)
10:30 AM	11A.5	A CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. E. Hart
10:45 AM	11A.6	WORKING TOWARD A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION- DIAGNOSING TRANSITION AND POST-TRANSITION INTENSITY CHANGE FROM OBSERVATIONS AND REANALYSES. Robert E. Hart, Penn State University, University Park, PA
11:00 AM	11A.7	STRUCTURAL CHANGES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. Sarah Jones, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and C. Thorncroft
11:15 AM	11A.8	HISTORIC SPECULATION AND CATEGORIZATION OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN. Jonathan Byrne, Consulting Meteorologist, Watertown, MA
11:30 AM	11A.9	MECHANISMS CONTRIBUTING TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC- AN IDEALIZED STUDY. Elizabeth A. Ritchie, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry
9:00 AM	SESSION 11B: INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY II (Parallel with Sessions 11A, 11C, & 11D) Chairperson(s): Harry H. Hendon, CDC, Boulder, CO
9:00 AM	11B.1	ON THE ROLE OF SURFACE FRICTION IN TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION. Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen
9:15 AM	11B.2	PREDICTION SKILL OF THE MADDEN AND JULIAN OSCILLATION IN DYNAMICAL EXTENDED RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS. Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and D. E. Waliser, J. E. Schemm, and W. K. M. Lau
9:30 AM	11B.3	CHARACTERISTICS OF CENTRAL AMERICAN WET AND DRY SPELLS. Malaquias Pena, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. W. Douglas
9:00 AM	SESSION 11D: REGIONAL AND LARGER SCALES (Parallel with Sessions 11A, 11B, & 11C) Chairperson(s): Richard H. Johnson and Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and Lance M. Leslie, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
9:00 AM	11D.1	THE HADLEY CIRCULATION- ASSESSING REANALYSIS AND SPARSE IN-SITU ESTIMATES. Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and Z. Shi, J. R. Lanzante, and A. H. Oort
9:15 AM	11D.2	NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE-TROUGH SYSTEM OVER TROPICAL NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. Lance M. Leslie, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; and T. C. L. Skinner
9:30 AM	11D.3	THE DYNAMICS OF HEAT LOWS. Zsuzsanna Racz, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith
9:45 AM	11D.4	MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND THE HADLEY CIRCULATION. David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 11D: Continued (Parallel with Sessions 11A, 11C, & 12B)
10:30 AM	11D.5	CENTRAL AMERICAN COLD SURGE PRECIPITATION AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET. Teresa M. Bals-Elsholz, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
10:45 AM	11D.6	HEAT AND MOISTURE BUDGETS IN STRATOCUMULUS AND TRADE CUMULUS REGIMES - SYNOPTIC AND DIURNAL VARIABILITY. Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert and R. H. Johnson
11:00 AM	11D.7	THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTING REGION AND TROPICAL CLIMATE. R .L. Miller, Columbia University, New York, NY
11:15 AM	11D.8	DYNAMICS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. Jorge A. Amador, Universidad de Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica; and V. Magana
11:30 AM	11D.9	WARM SEASON MOISTURE FLUXES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. Michael W. Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. C. Leal
11:45 AM	11D.10	WHAT CONTROL THE RESPONSES OF WATER VAPOR AND THIN CIRRUS IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND LOWER STRATOSPHERE TO AN ENHANCED TROPICAL HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE?. Rong Fu, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. X. Chen and W. G. Read
10:30 AM	SESSION 12B: CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION (Parallel with Sessions 11A, 11C, & 11D) Chairperson(s): John Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
10:30 AM	12B.1	PARAMETERIZED CONVECTION AND THE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION PROBLEM. John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin
10:45 AM	12B.2	CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION IN THE ABSENCE OF SCALE SEPARATION. George C. Craig, University of Reading, Reading, Berks., UK
11:00 AM	12B.3	THE OVERHEATED SYNDOME IN SOME CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES. Chungu Lu, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Browning
11:15 AM	12B.4	EMPIRICAL DETERMINATION OF BASIC CLOUD REGIMES. Chichung Lin, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA
11:30 AM	12B.5	TOWARD CLOUD-RESOLVING MODELING OF LARGE-SCALE TROPICAL CIRCULATIONS- CLOUD-RESOLVING CONVECTION PARAMETERIZATION. Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. K. Smolarkiewicz
12:00 PM	LUNCH BREAK
1:00 PM	SESSION 13B: NORTH AFRICAN MONSOON (Parallel with Sessions 13A, 13C, & 13D) Chairperson(s): Sharon E. Nicholson, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and Chris D. Thorncroft, University of Reading, Reading, Berks., UK
1:00 PM	13B.1	MAINTENANCE OF THE AFRICAN EASTERLY JET. Dimitris Brikas, University of Reading, Reading, Berks, UK; and C. D. Thorncroft
1:15 PM	13B.2	ON THE SEASONAL EVOLUTION OF RAINFALL FIELDS OVER WEST AFRICA AND EQUATORIAL AFRICA AND THEIR LINK TO THE SEASONAL EVOLUTION OF THE TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD. Sharon E. Nicholson, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Grist
1:30 PM	13B.3	EVALUATION OF THE PREDICTION OF SEASONAL RAINFALL. D. Entekhabi, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. B. Valdes and S. E. Nicholson
1:45 PM	13B.4	AFRICAN MONSOON SYNOPTIC VARIABILITY; VALIDATION OF THE METEO-FRANCE GCM SIMULATION. J. P. Ceron, Meteo-France, ENM, Toulouse, Midi-Pyrenees, France; and J. F. Gueremy
2:00 PM	13B.5	ANALYZING WEST AFRICAN RAINY SEASON METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES (1979-1994). Colleen Mikovitz, Penn State University, University Park, PA
2:15 PM	13B.6	INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE AFRICAN EASTERLY JET AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO ENSO. Gerald D. Bell, CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Chelliah
2:30 PM	13B.7	WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED SINCE GATE ON THE SAHARAN DUST CONCEPTUAL MODEL?. V. Mohan Karyampudi, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and T. N. Carlson
2:45 PM	13B.8	SEASONAL CYCLE OF THE WEST AFRICAN MONSOON- SENSITIVITY TO HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION. Delphine N. Texier, University of Reading, Reading, Berks, UK; and C. D. Thorncroft
3:15 PM	COFFEE BREAK
1:15 PM	SESSION 13A: ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC BOUNDARY LAYERS IN TROPICAL CYCLONES I (Parallel with Sessions 13B, 13C, & 13D) Chairperson(s): Peter Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Providence, RI
1:15 PM	13A.1	NEW HURRICANE BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES MEASURED BY GPS DROPSONDES IN 1997 HURRICANES GUILLERMO AND ERIKA. Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. L. Franklin, M. D. Powell, and M. L. Black
1:30 PM	13A.2	GPS SONDE INSIGHTS ON BOUNDARY LAYER STRUCTURE IN HURRICANES. Mark D. Powell, NOAA, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black, S. H. Houston, and T. A. Reinhold
1:45 PM	13A.3	THE EFFECTS OF INSTRUMENT WETTING ON EYEWALL BUOYANCY IN ATLANTIC HURRICANES. Matthew D. Eastin, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
2:00 PM	13A.4	CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OPERATIONAL ANALYTICAL WIND MODEL. Allan W. MacAfee, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and B. Peters
2:15 PM	13A.5	AN UPDATED PARAMETRIC MODEL OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. Bruce Harper, Systems Engineering Australia Ltd, Brisbane, Australia; and G. J. Holland
2:30 PM	13A.6	A PROTOTYPE REAL-TIME WIND AND WAVE FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. John L. Guiney, TPC, Miami, FL; and H. Graber, V. J. Cardone, R. E. Jensen, M. D. Powell, and P. G. Black
2:45 PM	13A.7	LOW-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANES AND STABLE ISOTOPE RATIOS OF VAPOR. Stanley D. Gedzelman, City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. R. Lawrence
3:00 PM	COFFEE BREAK
1:15 PM	SESSION 13D: TRMM OBSERVATIONS AND VALIDATION (Parallel with 13A, 13B, & 13C) Chairperson(s): Joanne Simpson, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
1:15 PM	13D.1	TRMM FIELD CAMPAIGNS- OBJECTIVES AND STATUS REPORT. Ed Zipser, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Kummerow, G. Heymsfield, S. Rutledge, S. Yuter, R. Houze, and B. Ferrier
1:30 PM	13D.2	THE LBA-TRMM FIELD PROGRAM. Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and L. D. Carey, W. A. Petersen, E. J. Zipser, and O. Thiele
1:45 PM	13D.3	ADAPTIVE USE OF TRMM OBSERVATIONS FOR IMPROVING TROPICAL FORECASTS. T. N. Krishnamurti, FSU, Tallahassee, FL; and D. W. Shin, B. P. Mackey, and Z. Zhang
2:00 PM	13D.4	A COMPARISON OF 85 GHZ ICE SCATTERING, REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE, AND LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL PRECIPITATION BY TRMM. Stephen W. Nesbitt, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
2:15 PM	13D.5	MONSOON CONVECTION DURING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON EXPERIMENT OBSERVED FROM SHIPBOARD RADAR AND THE TRMM SATELLITE. Thomas M. Rickenbach, TRMM Office and University of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and . et al.
2:30 PM	13D.6	TRMM VALIDATION DURING THE TEXAS AND FLORIDA UNDERFLIGHT EXPERIMENT (TEFLUN)-EXPERIMENT DESIGN AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS. Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and E. Zipser, R. Hood, P. Lawson, and A. Heymsfield
2:45 PM	13D.7	COMPARISON OF GROUND-BASED AND TRMM PRECIPITATION RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS OVER TEXAS AND FLORIDA. David B. Wolff, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and D. J. Cecil
3:00 PM	COFFEE BREAK
1:30 PM	SESSION 13C: TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS II (Parallel with Sessions 13A, 13B, & 13D) Chairperson(s): Lance Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
1:30 PM	13C.1	TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN A THREE-LAYER NUMERICAL MODEL WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER QUASI-EQUILIBRIUM CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION. Joseph A. Zehnder, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
1:45 PM	13C.2	INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL-CYCLONE-LIKE VORTICES IN ZONAL BACKGROUND FLOWS. Klaus Dengler, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser
2:00 PM	13C.3	TWO MODES OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS- AN IDEALIZED SIMULATION. Houjun Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank
2:15 PM	13C.4	NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE TRANSFORMATION OF AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVES INTO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTH ATLANTIC. Ioannis Pytharoulis, University of Reading, Reading, Berks, UK
2:30 PM	13C.5	AMPLIFICATION OF WARM-CORE VORTICES BY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT- A KEY COMPONENT OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
2:45 PM	13C.6	DEVELOPMENT AND NONDEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCES USING THREE DIFFERENT CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES. Greg E. Gahrs, FSU, Tallahassee, Florida; and R. L. Pfeffer
3:00 PM	COFFEE BREAK
3:30 PM	SESSION 14B: MONSOONS (Parallel with Sessions 14A, 14C, & 14D) Chairperson(s): T. D. Keenan, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
3:30 PM	14B.1	INTER ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER WEST AFRICA. Vincent Mathon, ORSTOM, Montpellier, France; and H. Laurent
3:45 PM	14B.2	PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON EXPERIMENT SOUNDING NETWORK. Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski, J. C. Knievel, and M. D. Parker
4:00 PM	14B.3	MESOSCALE STRUCTURE OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS OBSERVED DURING SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON EXPERIMENT (SCSMEX)- A PRELIMINARY SURVEY. T. D. Keenan, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and J. T. Wang, P. L. Lin, T. C. Chen, Y. C. Liou, J. A. Kankiewicz, R. Cifelli, and T. M. Rickenbach
4:15 PM	14B.4	A UNIFIED MONSOON INDEX FOR SOUTH CHINA. Er Lu, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan
4:30 PM	14B.5	INTERANNUAL VARITIONS OF INTRASEASONAL CONVECTION AND THE ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON. David M. Lawrence, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster
3:30 PM	SESSION 14C: TROPICAL CYCLONE-TROUGH INTERACTIONS (Parallel with Sessions 14A, 14B, & 14D) Chairperson(s): Michael Montgomery, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
3:30 PM	14C.1	ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE OPAL (1995) OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. E. Bracken, J. Molinari, C. S. Velden, and P. G. Black
3:45 PM	14C.2	A NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE GENESIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS IN HURRICANES. Shangyao Nong, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. E. Emanuel
4:00 PM	14C.3	CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION BY TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS. Martin Juckes, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith
4:15 PM	14C.4	THE EFFECT OF TROUGH INTERACTIONS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. Deborah E. Hanley, SUNY, Albany, New York
4:30 PM	14C.5	IDEALIZED MODELING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE-TROUGH INTERACTIONS IN THE OUTFLOW LAYER. Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari
3:30 PM	SESSION 14D: NOVEL OBSERVATIONS SOURCES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES (Parallel with Sessions 14A, 14B, & 14C) Chairperson(s): Gregory J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
3:30 PM	14D.1	FIRST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIBORNE VERTICALLY SCANNING DOPPLER RADAR (VSDR)- A KEY TO G-IV HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE OPERATIONS. Ivan P. PopStefanija, Quadrant Engineering, Inc., Amherst, MA; and R. Pawul, P. G. Black, F. D. Marks, and P. Dodge
3:45 PM	14D.2	OVERVIEW OF THE THIRD CONVECTION AND MOISTURE EXPERIMENT (CAMEX-3). Robbie E. Hood, NASA, Huntsville, AL; and R. Kakar
4:00 PM	14D.3	USE OF GOES HIGH DENSITY LOW LEVEL VIS WINDS TO IMPROVE THE ESTIMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTER WIND RADII. Jason P. Dunion, CIMSS/University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
4:15 PM	14D.4	BALLOON SYSTEMS FOR CONTINUOUS MEASUREMENT OF HURRICANE EYE PROPERTIES. Joseph B. Williams Jr., Modelsym, Inc., Doylestown, PA; and K. A. Emanuel, M. B. Sullivan, J. M. Cameron, and J. A. Cutts
4:30 PM	14D.5	FIRST TRMM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST IN SUPERTYPHOON PAKA (1997). Jeffrey B. Halverson, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Pierce, J. Simpson, C. Morales, E. B. Rodgers, S. Stewart, and T. Iguchi
4:45 PM	14D.6	TROPICAL CYCLONE EYEWALLS AND RAINBANDS THROUGH THE EYES OF THE TRMM SATELLITE. Daniel J. Cecil, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX
5:00 PM	14D.7	LOCALIZED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WARMING DURING TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND STORM FORMATION REVEALED BY THE NOAA-15 AMSU. Roy W. Spencer, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and W. D. Braswell
3:30 PM	SESSION 16A: TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING III (Parallel with Sessions 15B & J16B) Chairperson(s): Mark Lander, University of Guam, Guam
3:30 PM	16A.12	MODEL ERRORS IN HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS. Jeremy Pennington, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen
3:45 PM	16A.13	SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING-3- DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING EXPERT SYSTEM. James E. Peak, Computer Sciences Corp., Monterey, CA; and L. E. Carr, III and R. L. Elsberry
4:00 PM	16A.14	STATISTICAL POST-PROCESSING OF NOGAPS TRACK FORECAST. Mark A. Boothe, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and G. Ulses
4:15 PM	16A.15	IMPLEMENTATION OF CLIPER-TYPE STEERING CURRENT IN THE TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION MODEL. H. Joe Kwon, Kongju National University, Kongju, Chungnam, Korea; and W. J. Lee
4:30 PM	16A.16	TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING ON A WORKSTATION CLUSTER. Kwok-Aun Tan, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; and L. M. Leslie
FRI 15 JAN___________________________
9:00 AM	SESSION 15A: THEORY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE I (Parallel with Session 15B) Chairperson(s): Russell Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA
9:00 AM	15A.7	NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TYPHOON HERB (1996) USING MM5. Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. H. Kuo, W. Wang, and T. H. Yen
9:15 AM	15A.8	A DIAGNOSTIC CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF INTENSE HURRICANES FROM THE EXPLICIT SIMULATION OF ANDREW (1992). Yubao Liu, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and D. L. Z. Zhang and M. K. Yau
9:30 AM	15A.9	INLAND RE-INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY. Allen J. Riordan, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina; and J. Cline
9:45 AM	15A.10	THE INFLUENCE OF RESOLVED AND SUBGRID-SCALE ASYMMETRIES ON INTENSITY CHANGES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND MONSOON DEPRESSIONS. Reinhard M. Hell, University of Munich, Munich, Germany
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
9:00 AM	SESSION 15B: ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC BOUNDARY LAYERS IN TROPICAL CYCLONES II (Parallel with Session 15A) Chairperson(s): Hugh Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
9:00 AM	15B.8	LOW LEVEL JETS WITHIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BOUNDARY LAYER. Jeffrey D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and Y. Wang
9:15 AM	15B.9	COOLING AND DRYING WITHIN THE HURRICANE NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT?. Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black and S. H. Houston
9:30 AM	15B.10	SPIN-DOWN DYNAMICS OF AXISYMMETRIC HURRICANES. Holly D. Snell, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
9:45 AM	15B.11	SURFACE TYPHOON PAKA'S (1997) SURFACE WINDS. Sam H. Houston, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. Forbes, A. Chiu, W. Lee, and P. Dodge
10:00 AM	COFFEE BREAK
10:30 AM	SESSION 15B: Continued (Parallel with Sessions J16B & 16A
10:30 AM	15B.12	ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE BOUNDARY LAYER DATABASE AGAINST MODEL SIMULATIONS. Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and S. Mehta, V. Budamgunta, R. Mahecha, Y. Li, and D. Zhang
10:45 AM	15B.13	TOPEX/POSEIDON-DERIVED NW ATLANTIC OCEAN HURRICANE HEAT CONTENT ESTIMATES. Gustavo J. Goni, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and M. M. Huber and L. K. Shay
11:00 AM	15B.14	UPPER OCEAN RESPONSE DURING HURRICANE GILBERT- OBSERVATIONAL AND NUMERICAL STUDIES. S. Daniel Jacob, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay
11:15 AM	15B.15	DEVELOPING A MOVABLE MESH COUPLED TROPICAL CYCLONE-OCEAN MODEL. Clark Rowley, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis
11.30 AM	15B.16	UPPER OCEAN RESPONSE TO MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY. Lian Xie, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and C. Zhang, L. J. Pietrafesa, A. Xiu, and K. Wu
11:45 AM	15B.17	WSR-88D OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER STRUCTURE AT LANDFALL. Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. Dodge and C. Sandin
11:45 AM	15B.17	PAPER WITHDRAWN.
10:30 AM	JOINT SESSION J16B: CLIMATIC CHANGE AND TROPICAL CYCLONES (Joint with 10th Symposium on Global Change Studies) Chairperson(s): Chris Landsea, NOAA/HRD/AOML, Miami, FL
10:30 AM	J16B.1	INCREASED HURRICANE INTENSITIES WITH CO2-INDUCED WARMING AS SIMULATED USING THE GFDL HURRICANE PREDICTION SYSTEM (INVITED). Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya
11:00 AM	J16B.2	INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE PROCESSES ON TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL INTENSITY. Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
11:15 AM	J16B.3	IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES- A NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT WITH THE T42 VERSION OF NCAR CCM2. Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Inst of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and A. Kasahara and H. Hirakuchi
11:30 AM	J16B.4	INFLUENCE OF GREENHOUSE WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY SIMULATED BY A HIGH-RESOLUTION AGCM. Jun Yoshimura, Meteorological Research Inst./Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Sugi and A. Noda
11:45 AM	J16B.5	IDENTIFICATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC WEEKLY CYCLES IN NORTHWEST ATLANTIC POLLUTION, PRECIPITATION AND TROPICAL CYCLONES. Randall S. Cerveny, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and R. C. Balling, Jr.
10:30 AM	SESSION 14A: THEORY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE I I (Parallel with Sessions 15B and J16B Chairperson(s): Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA
10:30 AM	14A.1	AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF OCEAN FEEDBACK EFFECTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY. William D. Ramstrom, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel
10:45 AM	14A.2	WHAT LIMITS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY?. Greg Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia; and Y. Wang
11:00 AM	14A.3	AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY WITHDRAWN. Parks J. Camp, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery
11:15 AM	14A.4	STRUCTURE OF HURRICANE DANNY (1997) FROM WSR-88D DATA. Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Marks and P. Dodge
11:30 AM	14A.5	THE HURRICANE'S INNER-CORE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AS A PROXY FOR INTENSITY AND INTENSITY CHANGE. William M. Gray, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO
11:45 AM	14A.6	THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
12:00 PM	PRESENTATION OF THE MAX EATON STUDENT PRIZE
12:30 PM	CONFERENCE ENDS