Experimental seasonal predictions using CPTEC/COLA GCM have been performed at CPTEC since 1995. The prediction of the rainy season of Northeast Brazil is a very important one due to the large annual precipitation variability in that region. Droughts in El Nino years and above normal precipitation in La Nina years occur in observations.
Previous experiments have shown the role of the Pacific and Atlantic SST on these occurrences. The opposite occurs over south of Brazil, with floods in El Nino and below than normal rainfall in La Nina. In this study, simmulations in El Nino and La Nina years are performed and compared to the observations. Atmospheric variables are analysed in each case to identify possible large scale variations among the cases during different years. Regionsl anomalies are analysed for several areas of Brazil in order to study the predictability of other regions in the country