Numerical Forecasting of Typhoon for Offshore Wind Farms：The Impact of Parameterization Schemes and Sea Surface Temperature on the development of “Talim” in 2023

Offshore wind power, as a thriving new energy industry in recent years, heavily relies on meteorological services for site selection and operation, it is highly susceptible to significant impacts from extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones. Currently, a significant portion of typhoon forecasting work is conducted from a general perspective, with relatively fewer region-specific forecasts for areas of interest. Therefore, the establishment of a high-resolution numerical forecasting system specifically tailored for offshore wind power regions holds significant importance. A numerical forecasting system for tropical cyclones in the northern South China Sea (SCS) has been established, which is focuses on the offshore wind power cluster in Guangdong Province. The tropical cyclones were simulated using the Advanced Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. In the endeavor to enhance the precision of typhoon intensity forecasting, a case study was conducted using tropical cyclone “Talim” in 2023. By performing sensitivity experiments, it was revealed that the physics parameterization schemes and the accuracy of sea surface temperature (SST) data are pivotal factors that influence the results. The system has achieved real-time, automated, and accurate tropical cyclone forecasting, providing valuable information for the prevention of wind-related disasters for offshore wind power industry.