Hurricane Forecast Improvements

Hurricane Forecast Improvements

NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) was established in 2009 with the vision of organizing the hurricane community to dramatically improve numerical forecast guidance to the National Hurricane Center. Since HFIP’s inception in 2009, model hurricane track and intensity forecast errors were reduced by 50% and 56%, respectively, and intensity errors during Rapidly Intensifying storms were reduced by 47%. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) became world-class (2014). In response to the Weather Act of 2017, a new set of HFIP goals were established to maintain ongoing research to improve hurricane forecasting. This new set of goals included: (1) reducing track and intensity forecast guidance errors further than the 2007 goal, by an additional 50%, including for rapid intensification; (2) improving forecasts and guidance for storm surge and other storm-induced hazards; and (3) incorporate risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) was created to address these goals. The first version of HAFS was transitioned to operations in June 2022.

HFIP Real-time Experiment (HREx) has, since 2012, been a project undertaken during the hurricane season to demonstrate that the application of advanced science, technology, and increased computing will lead to the desired increase in accuracy and other improvements in forecast model performance as laid out in the HFIP strategic plan. New and innovative Numerical Weather Prediction and data assimilation techniques, model configurations, and products must be at least at RL4 or higher if selected for obtaining HFIP computational resources on the NOAA R&D machines, JET, and Orion. In the 2023 hurricane season, apart from two operational versions of HAFS, 4 different configurations of HAFS were run under HREx. In this presentation, we will report the progress made in forecast improvements and discuss the HFIP Real-time Experiment (HREx) results with HAFS during the 2023 season.