Session 5A From HWRF to UFS: HAFS Journey from Development to Operations

Tuesday, 30 January 2024: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
320 (The Baltimore Convention Center)
Host: 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations
Cochairs:
William A. Komaromi and Zhan Zhang, EMC, College Park, MD

This session will be a Panel Discussion on the history of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting model from inception in HFIP to operations as part of the greater Unified Forecast System (UFS).
The Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) is NOAA’s next-generation, multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation package, which will provide operational analysis and forecast out to seven days. HAFS will provide reliable and skillful guidance on Tropical Cyclone (TC) track and intensity (including RI), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall, and tornadoes associated with TCs. The initial operational capacity of HAFS was approved by National Weather Service (NWS) for operational implementation for the 2023 hurricane season. HAFS comprises five major components: 1) storm-following telescopic moving nests, (2) high-resolution physics configured for TC application, (3) multi-scale Data Assimilation (DA) with vortex initialization, (4) full three-way atmosphere-ocean-wave coupling framework, and (5) intensive hurricane observational platforms to support the multi-scale DA system, the physics packages evaluation and improvement, and forecast verifications.

Conveners: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD and Aaron Poyer, NOAA/NWS/STI

Papers:
8:30 AM
5A.1
Hurricane Forecast Improvements
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, AOML, Miami, FL; and A. J. Poyer, Z. Zhang, G. J. Alaka Jr., and W. A. Komaromi

8:45 AM
5A.2
The National Hurricane Center Model Evaluation Process for the Operational Implementation of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Version 1 (HAFSv1) Models
Jonathan Martinez, CIRA, Miami, FL; and W. Hogsett, K. Musgrave, D. A. Zelinsky, J. P. Cangialosi, and B. C. Trabing, PhD

9:00 AM
5A.3
The HAFSv1.1A Real-Time Parallel Experiment with Upgraded Model Resolution, Initialization, Physics and MOM6 Ocean Coupling
Bin Liu, Lynker at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and H. S. Kim, J. Shin, B. Thomas, Z. Zhang, B. Li, C. K. Wang, M. Aristizabal, J. D. Steffen, PhD, W. Wang, L. Zhu, X. Li, Y. Weng, J. Cheng, H. Kang, L. J. Gramer, A. Mehra, and V. S. Tallapragada

9:15 AM
5A.4
Real-time Testing of Experimental Upgrades to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, Version B (HAFSV1.1B)
Andrew T. Hazelton, Univ. of Miami CIMAS, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr., X. Chen, M. C. Ko, W. Ramstrom, Z. Zhang, B. Liu, W. Wang, C. K. Wang, X. Zhang, L. Bengtsson, V. S. Tallapragada, and S. Gopalakrishnan

9:30 AM
5A.5
Evaluation of the Coupled MOM6 Ocean Model Component during the 2023 HAFS Real-Time Experiments
John D. Steffen, PhD, SAIC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Aristizabal, B. Li, Y. Li, L. J. Gramer, H. Kang, H. S. Kim, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, and A. Mehra

9:45 AM
5A.6
Impact of Adjusting the Deep Convection Parameterization on HAFS Intensity Forecast Improvement
Jung Hoon Shin, Lynker at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; Lynker at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Liu, Z. Zhang, J. Han, A. Mehra, and V. S. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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