Tropical Cyclone Initiation

Hurricane forecasts from the national hurricane center give us a good idea of whether disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean will form tropical cyclones or not. They give us the chance of it forming within 48 hours and five days. It gives us these possibilities in 10’s (near 0%, 10%, 20%, etc.) While most of these forecasts, especially within five days, tend to be accurate, but occasionally, these forecasts are off even if there is a 70% or even 90% chance of the disturbance forming within five days, they don’t form. The first goal of this project is to figure out why the storms had a good chance of forming within five days and why they did not form. The second goal of this project is to determine if there was a low or only a medium chance of the storms forming and how they formed within five days. Maybe they were more symmetric, or there was high humidity in the air. If we know why these storms with a high chance did not form or storms with a lower medium chance did form within five days, we will be able to make better hurricane forecasts.