Watch/Warning Verification for US-Landfalling Tropical Cyclones since 2017

The National Hurricane Center routinely verifies tropical cyclone forecasts against their best track (the best estimate of the location, intensity, and wind radii values) in the post-season to determine forecast accuracy for individual tropical cyclones and the entire season. However, associated watches and warnings have typically not been verified against the conditions received in their respective areas. We aim to examine trends in the coastal watches and warnings that are issued during tropical cyclone events. All tropical cyclones that have made landfall in the United States and its territories since 2017 through the 2023 season are included in the analysis. Areas are assigned values corresponding to a correct forecast if conditions were received, and overwarned if the expected conditions did not occur. Generally, there is high accuracy of coastal wind watches and warnings over the entire sample size. Our analysis includes a statistical examination of watches and warnings based on different parameters, including the month of the storm and the geographical location.