Updates to Operational Verification of NCEP’s Regional Models and Utility as a Decision-Making Tool for Regional Model Upgrades and Retirement

The Verification and Products Division (VPD) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC) has recently developed version 1 of the EMC Verification System (EVSv1), a novel software application that verifies operational modeling systems and products from the NCEP Production Suite. EVSv1 leverages the Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) software packages to generate objective verification statistics and graphics that are used to monitor the performance of global and regional models developed at EMC.

Verification statistics and graphics are produced daily for eleven of NCEP’s regional modeling systems and products (i.e., AQM, HAFS, HIRESW, HREF, NAM, NARRE, RAP/HRRR, RTMA/URMA, and SREF). As relevant for each system, the regional components of EVSv1 verify upper air, surface, precipitation, aviation, atmospheric composition, severe weather, and tropical cyclone guidance. Again as applicable, verification is included for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), as well as Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. An overview of the various outputs and model intercomparisons will be provided. Additionally, representative examples will be presented to demonstrate the utility of EVSv1 as a tool to help inform future decisions on upgrading, consolidating, and retiring modeling applications in the NCEP Production Suite.