Program: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics (104th AMS Annual Meeting)

Hosts: (Joint between the Virtual Posters; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; and the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface )

Cochairs: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah; Suzana J. Camargo, PhD, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University; Kyle R. Knipper, USDA; Stephanie J. Avey

V18

37CVC Wildfires and Greenhouse Gases across the Southwestern USA

Nolan Tai, Troy High School, Fullerton, CA; and X. Jiang and Y. Yung

V19

37CVC Are the Extreme Marine Heatwave Events in the Central-eastern Tropical Pacific Predictable 30–60 Days in Advance by NUIST CFS1.1 Model?

Lin Lin, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Handout (3.2 MB)

V20

37CVC Teleconnections Link to Summer Heat Extremes in the South-Central U.S.: Insights from CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations

Jung Hee Ryu, Gangneung-Wonju National University, Gangneung, South korea; Gangneung-Wonju National University, Gangneung-si, Gangwon-do, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. L. Kang

V22

37CVC Short-term Dependence Between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific-North-American (PNA) Indices and its Connection to Predictability and Standard Flow Indices

Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau and J. D. Doyle

V21

37CVC Deep Learning Base Heatwave and Tropical Night Prediction Model Using Local Ensemble Prediction System

V23

37CVC Assessing the Impact of the Recent Warming in the East China Sea on a Torrential Rain Event in Northern Kyushu (Japan) in Early July 2017

Atsuyoshi Manda, Mie University, Tsu, Mie, Japan; and S. Iizuka, H. Nakamura, and T. Miyasaka

V24

37CVC The Effect of Human Emissions on the Level of Atmospheric CO2

Edwin X Berry, Ed Berry LLC, Bigfork, MT

V24A

37CVC Future Contribution of African Easterly Waves to Precipitation Extreme Events in CMIP6

Tomviezibe Cephas Dombo, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, New Delhi, DL, India; Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria; and K. M. AchutaRao and S. Sukumaran

V25

38HYDRO The Effect of Greenhouse Gas Induced Warming on the Impact of El Niño and La Niña Events on Precipitation Extremes

Qiaohong Sun, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and F. W. Zwiers and X. ZHANG

V26

38HYDRO Recent Developments of the 200-Member West-WRF Near Real-Time Forecast Ensemble

Daniel F. Steinhoff, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, San Diego, CA; and B. Kawzenuk, M. Simpson, N. R. Mascioli, M. Ghazvinian, PhD, A. Sengupta, L. Delle Monache, R. Weihs, C. Papadopoulos, and M. M. Ralph

V27

38HYDRO Understanding the Sensitivity of Different Drought Indices to Soil Moisture Variations in Africa

Aolin Jia, Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Belvaux, ESCH-SUR-ALZETTE, Luxembourg; and T. Hu and K. Mallick

V27A

38HYDRO Landsat Imagery Shows a Recent Accelerating Rate of Increase in Land Evapotranspiration.

Hadi Jaafar, PhD, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon; and L. Sujud

V27B

38HYDRO Use of Machine Learned Mutual Information Between Drought Factors Influencing the USDM

Michael Shaw, NOAA, Manchester; NOAA, Asheville, NC; and S. Ansari, D. M. Mocko, S. Yatheendradas, and J. Fain

Manuscript (54.8 kB)

Handout (726.5 kB)

V27C

38HYDRO Estimating 3-m Evapotranspiration Using Planet, OpenET, and Machine Learning Techniques

Rui Gao, PhD, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS; and Y. Yang, K. Knipper, M. Mar Alsina, L. A. Sanchez, F. Melton, H. Nieto, N. E. Bambach, F. Gao, J. Alfieri, M. C. Anderson, W. Kustas, L. E. Hipps, and A. Torres-Rua

V28

24SMOI Fog Structure and Stability at Sable Island in July 2022

Clive Edgar Dorman, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and D. Koračin and G. Gašparac

V29

24SMOI The Kavaratti Project: Meteorology Over the Lakshadweep Sea For Climate Simulation

NARAYANAN M KOMERATH, Taksha Institute, Hampton, VA; Taksha Institute, Hampton, VA; and S. Meti, R. Ramachandran, and R. Deepak

V30

24SMOI Infrasonic Detection of Tornadoes Using Interferometric Beamforming

Christopher Francis Sterpka, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Smyrna, GA

V31

24SMOI Winds over DC

William Pendergrass, ATDD, OAK RIDGE, TN; and N. Lichiheb, A. Stein, S. Baidar, and W. A. Brewer

V31A

24SMOI Particulate Matter in the American Southwest: Detection and Analysis of Dust Storms Using Surface Measurements and Ground-Based LIDAR

Joscelyne Guzman-Gonzalez, NCAS-M II, EL PASO, TX

V32

28IOAS NWP-Based Evaluation of Radiosonde Network and AMDAR Data in China

JIAN XIA GUO, CMA Meteorological Observation Center, BEIJING, 11, China

V32A

2FUTURE Implementing, Strengthening and Sustaining Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Stephanie Gallasch, M.A., WMO, Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; and R. Martinez Guingla

V32AB

2FUTURE Application of XGBoost to Site-specific Weather Forecast in Australia

Mengmeng Han, BoM, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; and T. Leeuwenburg and B. Murphy

Presidential Forum: Climate Science as Service to Society

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Moderator: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT

Panelists: Bob Inglis, republicEn.org; Monica P. Medina, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS)

AMS Career Resource & Graduate School Fair

Location: Hall D (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the 23rd Annual Student Conference; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Annual Meeting Welcome Reception

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the 23rd Annual Student Conference; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Coffee Break [Main Terrace (BCC), Camden Lobby (BCC), Hall E (BCC)]

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

2B

Probabilistic Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis: Theory and Application I

Location: 340 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics )

Chair: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing University

Cochairs: Yu Zhang, The University of Texas at Arlington; Kuolin Hsu, University of California, Irvine

10:45 AM

2B.1

Quantify and Evaluate the Forecast Uncertainty from Global Ensemble Forecast System (invited)

Yuejian Zhu, EMC, College Park, MD

11:00 AM

2B.2

The Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service - Overview and Future Development

Mark A. Fresch, NWS, Silver Spring, MD

11:15 AM

2B.3

How many members are necessary to reduce errors in ensemble spread in hydrometeorological forecasts?

Michael A. Brunke, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng, W. D. Scheftic, L. Delle Monache, M. Simpson, and D. F. Steinhoff

11:30 AM

2B.4

Impacts of Combining Various Types of Perturbation Methods on Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting of Precipitation during SCMREX

Xubin Zhang, Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou, China

11:45 AM

2B.5

Convective-scale ensemble forecasts of the heavy precipitation of Typhoon Lekima (2019) in Zhejiang Province

Huiling Yuan, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 32, China; and F. Xu

Lunch Break

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

3

Living in a Changing Environment: The Future of Probabilistic Forecasting, Decision Support, & Verification

Location: Johnson AB (Hilton Baltimore Inner Harbor)

Hosts: (Joint between the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; and the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics )

Cochairs: Michael E. Baldwin, NSF; Sarah Perfater, NWS

1:45 PM

3.1

A Roadmap for NWS Probabilistic Impact Decision Support Services (IDSS)

Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NWS, Bohemia, NY; and R. Bandy, K. K. Gilbert, G. Cooper, PhD, and S. B. Smith

2:00 PM

3.2

DESI - The Newest Decision Support Tool for Fast and Meaningful Interrogation of Ensemble-based Numerical Weather Data

Travis Wilson, GSL - Global Systems Laboratory, Broomfield, CO; GSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Q. Stewart, R. Howlett, J. T. Radford, C. Kahler, K. Anderson, D. D. Nietfeld, A. A. Coleman, and C. Vaughn

2:15 PM

3.3

An Update on Recent Development with the National Blend of Models

Steven L. Levine, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack, R. James, E. Engle, S. Scallion, C. Buxton, A. Schnapp, S. Perfater, G. Manikin, W. Yan, B. Haynes, and G. G. Leone

2:30 PM

3.4

Examining the Performance of the National Blend of Models During High Impact Winter Weather in New England

Christopher Gilberti, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY

2:45 PM

3.5

Advances in Freezing Rain Accumulation Verification, Reporting Practices, Communication, and Governance

Eric M. Guillot, NOAA/NWS/AFSO, Silver Spring, MD; and S. Perfater, M. Muccilli, and A. Lamers

Coffee Break & Formal Poster Viewing

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Probabilistic Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis: Theory and Application - Posters

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics )

Chair: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing University

Cochairs: Yu Zhang, The University of Texas at Arlington; Kuolin Hsu, University of California, Irvine

16

A Study on the Enhancement Mechanism of the Eastward Moving Convective Clouds over the Tibetan Plateau and their Enhancement in the Secondary Terrain

wang xiaofang, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration，Wuhan, Wuhan, Hubei, China

17

Vertical Structures of Raindrop Size Distributions over Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River during Meiyu Period in 2020

Bin Wang, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, Wuhan, Hubei, China; and L. Zhou, Z. Fu, and G. Xu

Exhibit Hall Opening Reception

Location: Hall F/ Swing (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Agency Updates; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Technology and Data-science Mixer

Location: Key Ballroom Salon 3-4 (Hilton Baltimore Inner Harbor)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; and the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate )

ESWN Reception

Location: Pratt Street Ale House

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Coriolis (LGBTQ+ and Allies) Reception

Location: Pisces (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 5

Ensembles and Post-Processing I

Location: 302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: Tom Hamill; Cristiana Stan, George Mason University

8:30 AM

5.1

Ensemble Prediction Systems and Application at China Meteorological Administration

Jing Chen, CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, Beijing, China; CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, Beijing, China

8:45 AM

5.2

Optimizing Downscaling Strategy through Selective Culling of NOAA Operational Forecast Ensemble for Cost-Effective Prediction

Guangwei Li, Univ. of Maryland at College Park, Greenbelt, MD; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and C. Sun and X. Z. Liang

9:00 AM

5.3

Assessing the Use of Prior Skill for Merging NMME Ensembles

William D. Scheftic, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng, M. A. Brunke, M. J. DeFlorio, A. Ouyed, and E. Sanden

9:15 AM

5.4

Forecast Quality of Time-Lagged, Medium-Range, High-Resolution Ensembles over the United States

Anastasia Joy Tomanek, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and C. S. Schwartz

9:30 AM

5.5

Machine Learning Enhancement for Climate Change Projection of Hazardous Convective Weather

Nathan Erickson, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and C. M. Patricola

9:45 AM

5.6

Multivariate Similarity Metric Development for Analog Ensembles

Laura Clemente, Engineer Research and Development Center, Springfield, VA; and W. Hu, G. Cervone, and B. Hoch

Coffee Break [Main Terrace (BCC), Camden Lobby (BCC), Hall E (BCC), Hall F (BCC)]

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Lunch Break

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 7

Ensembles and Post-Processing II

Location: 302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: Julia Velletta; Yu Zhang, The University of Texas at Arlington

1:45 PM

7.1

Development of Precipitation Postprocessing at the Weather Company

Thomas M. Hamill, The Weather Company, Boulder, CO; and L. C. Gaudet, J. K. Williams, J. P. Koval, and C. Guiang

2:00 PM

7.2

A Comparison of Simple Methods for the Postprocessing of Wind Speed

Thomas M. Hamill, The Weather Company, Boulder, CO

2:15 PM

7.3

Post-Processing of the National Blend of Models Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Percentiles to Obtain a Single Value Solution

David E. Rudack, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and G. Manikin

2:30 PM

7.4

Development of a Model Blending Capability for the United States Air Force

Timothy Bonin, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and P. M. Stepanian, D. Morse, and J. C. Pena

Handout (1.8 MB)

2:45 PM

7.5

Predictability of Rainfall over Equatorial East Africa in the ECMWF Raw and Post Processed Ensemble Hindcast on Short to Medium-Range Time Scales

Simon Ageet, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; and A. H. Fink, M. Maranan, and B. Schulz

Coffee Break & Formal Poster Viewing [Hall E (BCC) & Hall F (BCC)]

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

J8

Statistics and Machine Learning for Climate Science

Location: 302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science )

Cochairs: Julia Velletta; Vanderlei Vargas Jr. Jr.

4:30 PM

J8.1

The Climate Change Deniers are Wrong: Evidence from NOAA's Barrow Atmospheric Observatory in Alaska

Kevin F Forbes, Energy and Environmental Data Science, Malahide, D, Ireland

4:45 PM

J8.2

Prediction of Tropical Pacific Rain Rates with Over-parameterized Neural Networks

Hojun You, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and M. Jun, R. Saravanan, C. J. Schumacher, J. Wang, and R. Wong

5:00 PM

J8.3

Subseasonal-to-Decadal Analog Forecasting Using Spatially-Weighted Masks Learned By a Neural Network

Jamin K. Rader, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, M. Fernandez, and J. Landsberg

5:15 PM

J8.4

A Stochastic Statistical Model for U.S. Outbreak-Level Tornado Occurrence Based on the Large-Scale Environment

Kelsey M. Malloy, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and M. K. Tippett

5:30 PM

J8.5

Building Asymmetry into PCA and Application to ENSO

Erik T. Swenson, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA

5:45 PM

J8.6

Constraining the Simulated Radiative Effects of Biomass Burning in Southern Africa

Victor Alejandro Sanchez, Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA; Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA; and J. Carzon, M. Kuusela, and H. Gordon

Exhibit Hall Reception

Location: Hall F/ Swing (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 9

Ensemble Techniques Across Applications

Location: 302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: Michelle A. Harrold, NCAR; Jeff McQueen, NOAA NWS NCEP EMC

8:30 AM

9.1

Calibrating Multi-Scale Deterministic and Probabilistic Forecasts

Ziqiang Huo, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, JiangSu, China; and P. Liu and Y. Wang

8:45 AM

9.2

Validation of a High-Resolution WRF Forecast Ensemble for ESCAPE

Yishi Hu, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Z. Lebo

9:00 AM

9.3

Probabilistic Prediction of Agricultural Spray Drift and Deposition Using a LES Ensemble

John Manobianco, BASF, Newtown, PA; and D. J. W. Zack

9:15 AM

9.4

A Visibility Risk-Assessment Tool for Maritime Operations

Kathryn Lynn Verlinden, PhD, Applied Ocean Sciences, Springfield, VA

9:30 AM

9.5

Moving to Ensembles and Probabilistic Data: Ensuring Forecasters Are Ready

Andrew Just, NWS, Office of Central Processing, Kansas City, MO; and J. K. Jordan, K. Scharfenberg, and B. Guarente

Handout (2.0 MB)

9:45 AM

9.6

Advancing Situational Awareness of Forecast Scenarios through Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis

Austin A. Coleman, CIRES / WPC, College Park, MD; and J. A. Nelson Jr. and B. A. Colle

Coffee Break [Main Terrace (BCC), Camden Lobby (BCC), Hall E (BCC), Hall F (BCC)]

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 10

Probability and Verification for High Impact Weather Events I

Location: 302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics

CoChair: Jason J. Levit

10:45 AM

10.1

Probabilistic Forecasting Products and Tool Development at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

James A. Nelson Jr., NCEP, College Park, MD

11:00 AM

10.2

Evaluation of QPF from NCAR's 5.5 and 8.5 Day Convection-Allowing Ensembles Against WPC and Operational Guidance

Benjamin S. Albright, SAIC, Gaithersburg, MD; and J. A. Nelson Jr. and C. S. Schwartz

11:15 AM

10.3

Leveraging Probabilistic High Resolution Model Guidance to Improve Flash Flood Forecasting Across Southern Utah

Mike Seaman, NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Church and J. A. Cunningham

11:30 AM

10.4

Evaluating the Performance of NSSL’s Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System using the METplus Verification Scorecard

Brian C. Matilla, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), NOAA NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, P. S. Skinner, T. A. Jones, J. Martin, and K. H. Knopfmeier

11:45 AM

10.5

Spatial Aligned Mean Ensemble Consensus Method Applied to CAM Precipitation Forecasts in the 2023 FFaIR Experiment

Chang Jae Lee, CAPS, Norman, OK; and K. A. Brewster and P. Spencer

Lunch Break

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 11

Probability and Verification for High Impact Weather Events II

Location: 302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: Jacob T. Radford; Christina P. Kalb, NCAR

1:45 PM

11.1

Estimating the probability of hail in Canada using a lightning proxy

Dominique Brunet, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and J. Brimelow

2:00 PM

11.2

An Evaluation of Medium-Range Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Progressive Derechos

Bruno Ribeiro, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and S. J. Weiss and L. F. Bosart

2:15 PM

11.3

Verification of Probabilistic Temperature Forecasts in the NWS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE)

Leslie R. Colin, NWS, Boise, ID

2:30 PM

11.4

How skillful are high-resolution ensemble means in capturing warm-season extreme precipitation events?

Diana Rose Stovern, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Bytheway, K. M. Mahoney, S. M. Trojniak, J. Correia Jr., B. J. Moore, and M. R. Abel

2:45 PM

11.5

A preliminary dive into the climatology of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) heavy rainfall probabilities

Sarah Marie Trojniak, CIRES-CIESRDS @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and J. Correia Jr., J. L. Bytheway, D. R. Stovern, and K. M. Mahoney

Coffee Break & Formal Poster Viewing [Hall E (BCC) & Hall F (BCC)]

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Posters: General Topics in Probability, Statistics, and Machine Learning

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics

CoChair: Tara L. Jensen, NOAA

584

Integrating Probabilistic Data into Operations for a Deterministic Forecast Process

Andrew Just, NWS, Office of Central Processing, Kansas City, MO; and T. M. Ryan, M. R. Loeffelbein, D. Church, and D. Van Cleave

Handout (2.1 MB)

A Methodology to Predict the Geomagnetic Field with Confirmatory Evidence from the Polar Region in Canada

585

An Update on the use of METplus at the Naval Research Laboratory

Elizabeth Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. Davis, G. C. Carl, M. G. Fearon, D. D. Kuhl, J. Ma, P. Caffrey, H. Christophersen, and J. I. Rubin

586

Assessing the Use of Ensemble Regression and Time-Lagged Ensembles on GEFS Forecasts of Temperature and Precipitation

Justin Hicks, CPC, College Park, MD; ERT, Inc., Laurel, MD

587

Climatology of Mesoscale Convective System-Related Severe Hazards – Classification Algorithm Development and Representation in Convection-Permitting Climate Models

Wenjun Cui, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Norman, OK; and T. J. Galarneau and K. A. Hoogewind

588

Leveraging METcalcpy and METplotpy for Enhanced Ensemble Weather Forecasting Verification

Vanderlei Vargas Jr., CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; NOAA/GSL, Boulder, CO; DTC, Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, M. Win-Gildenmeister, H. Fisher, G. Ketefian, M. A. Harrold, M. J. Kavulich Jr., W. Mayfield, and L. Bernardet

Session 12

Extreme Value Analysis and Prediction

Location: 302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: Gabriele Villarini; Yu Zhang, The University of Texas at Arlington

4:30 PM

12.1

Moving beyond Exceedance Probabilities for Assessing Solar and Wind Energy Production Risks

Brent Ho, Sunairio, Baltimore, MD; and R. Cirincione, T. Ivancic, and E. Hewitt

4:45 PM

12.2

Evaluating the Predictability of Gusts Using Durst Curves: A Historical Statistical Approach with Modern Observations

Alex Roslyn Gallagher, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Hanover, NH

5:00 PM

12.3

Comparing a spatial propinquity extreme-value model with a simple univariate generalized Pareto approach for trends in extreme precipitation

Vitaly Kholodovsky, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, Hyattsville, MD; and X. Z. Liang

5:15 PM

12.4

Identifying Hotspots of Large Hail Size in the Continental U.S.: A Bayesian Approach

Subhadarsini Das, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen

5:30 PM

12.5

Predicting Precipitation Using Stochastics and Uncertainty Quantification

Thomas Chen, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and H. Park

12.6

Reduction on Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Thermocline Gradient from 1960-2017l

Awards Reception and Ceremony

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Wednesday Night Live

Location: Key Ballroom Salon 1-8 (Hilton Baltimore Inner Harbor)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 13

Verification Methods I

Location: 302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: Michael E. Baldwin; Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR

8:30 AM

13.1

METplus: 15 Years of Verification and Diagnostics for the Community

Tara L. Jensen, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, J. Opatz, C. P. Kalb, and D. R. Adriaansen

8:45 AM

13.2

The Environmental Modeling Center Verification System (EVS): Real-time verification of Unified Forecast System (UFS) models

Jason J. Levit, EMC, College Park, MD; and G. Manikin, A. M. Bentley, L. C. Dawson, and T. L. Jensen

9:00 AM

13.3

Updates to Operational Verification of NCEP’s Regional Models and Utility as a Decision-Making Tool for Regional Model Upgrades and Retirement

Logan C. Dawson, OPC, College Park, MD; and J. J. Levit, G. S. Manikin, A. M. Bentley, M. G. Caron, H. C. Huang, S. Melchior, O. Ostwald, P. Shafran, R. K. Shrestha, and B. Zhou

9:15 AM

13.4

Generating a Flexible Verification System for Precipitation by Assessing Precipitation Skill in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) via Model Evaluation Tools (METplus)

Johnna Infanti, NOAA, College Park, MD; CPC, College Park, MD; and D. C. Collins and J. Hicks

9:30 AM

13.5

Going Beyond the Terrestrial: Space Weather Verification with METplus

Jonathan L. Vigh, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. G. Onsager, T. L. Jensen, D. Fuller-Rowell, J. Wang, M. Codrescu, T. Durgonics, C. Martinkus, F. Centinello, T. Fuller-Rowell, and R. A. Steenburgh

9:45 AM

13.6

My favorite model has improved but has it improved for me? A perspective on forecast evaluation and verification

James Correia Jr., CIRES, College Park, MD; NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and S. M. Trojniak

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: Hall F/ Swing (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Agency Updates; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Lunch Break

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 15

Verification Methods II

Location: 302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Cochairs: Michael E. Baldwin; Tracy J. Hertneky, NCAR

1:45 PM

15.1

Cloud Regime Verification using Enhanced Model Evaluation Tools

Hui Christophersen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Nachamkin, W. Davis, and E. Satterfield

2:00 PM

15.2

Comparing the Impact of Ensemble Design in the Rapid Refresh Forecast System Using Object-Based Methods

Christina P. Kalb, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. A. Harrold, W. Mayfield, J. Beck, G. Ketefian, B. Nelson, and C. Schwartz

2:15 PM

15.3

Flexible Infrastructure in the GSL Phenomena-Oriented Model Verification System

Jeffrey A. Hamilton, NOAA/GSL and CIRES, Boulder, CO; and M. Smith, R. Pierce, B. Strong, I. McGinnis, G. Padmanabhan, D. D. Turner, and M. S. Wandishin

2:30 PM

15.4

Initial Development of GSL’s Interactive Verification Scorecard Tool

Molly B. Smith, NOAA/GSL - CIRES, Boulder, CO; and R. Pierce, I. McGinnis, G. Padmanabhan, J. A. Hamilton, B. Strong, D. D. Turner, and M. S. Wandishin

2:45 PM

15.5

Performance Diagrams Based on Skill Scores

Michael E. Baldwin, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks and M. L. Flora

Coffee Break & Formal Poster Viewing

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

28th Conference on Probability and Statistics

Tuesday, 23 January 2024

1:00 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 23 January 2024

Sunday, 28 January 2024

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Sunday, 28 January 2024

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Sunday, 28 January 2024

Monday, 29 January 2024

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 29 January 2024

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

12:00 PM-1:45 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

1:45 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

6:00 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

7:30 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

Tuesday, 30 January 2024

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

12:00 PM-1:45 PM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

1:45 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

Wednesday, 31 January 2024

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

12:00 PM-1:45 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

1:45 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

6:00 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

Thursday, 1 February 2024

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

12:00 PM-1:45 PM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

1:45 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

Tuesday, 23 January 2024

1:00 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 23 January 2024

Sunday, 28 January 2024

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Sunday, 28 January 2024

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Sunday, 28 January 2024

Monday, 29 January 2024

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 29 January 2024

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

12:00 PM-1:45 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

1:45 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

6:00 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

7:30 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

Tuesday, 30 January 2024

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

12:00 PM-1:45 PM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

1:45 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 30 January 2024

Wednesday, 31 January 2024

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

12:00 PM-1:45 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

1:45 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

6:00 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

Thursday, 1 February 2024

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

12:00 PM-1:45 PM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

1:45 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 1 February 2024