3 Living in a Changing Environment: The Future of Probabilistic Forecasting, Decision Support, & Verification

Monday, 29 January 2024: 1:45 PM-3:00 PM
Johnson AB (Hilton Baltimore Inner Harbor)
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; and the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Cochairs:
Michael E. Baldwin, NSF, NWC Research Experience for Undergraduates, Athens, GA and Sarah Perfater, NWS, AFSO, Silver Spring, MD

This proposed session will focus on the future of ensemble/probabilistic forecasting, decision support, or forecast verification/evaluation.

Papers:
1:45 PM
3.1
A Roadmap for NWS Probabilistic Impact Decision Support Services (IDSS)
Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NWS, Bohemia, NY; and R. Bandy, K. K. Gilbert, G. Cooper, PhD, and S. B. Smith

2:00 PM
3.2
DESI - The Newest Decision Support Tool for Fast and Meaningful Interrogation of Ensemble-based Numerical Weather Data
Travis Wilson, GSL - Global Systems Laboratory, Broomfield, CO; GSL, Boulder, CO; and J. Q. Stewart, R. Howlett, J. T. Radford, C. Kahler, K. Anderson, D. D. Nietfeld, A. A. Coleman, and C. Vaughn

2:15 PM
3.3
An Update on Recent Development with the National Blend of Models
Steven L. Levine, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack, R. James, E. Engle, S. Scallion, C. Buxton, A. Schnapp, S. Perfater, G. Manikin, W. Yan, B. Haynes, and G. G. Leone

2:30 PM
3.4
Examining the Performance of the National Blend of Models During High Impact Winter Weather in New England
Christopher Gilberti, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY

2:45 PM
3.5
Advances in Freezing Rain Accumulation Verification, Reporting Practices, Communication, and Governance
Eric M. Guillot, NOAA/NWS/AFSO, Silver Spring, MD; and S. Perfater, M. Muccilli, and A. Lamers

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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