A Roadmap for NWS Probabilistic Impact Decision Support Services (IDSS)

The National Weather Service (NWS) is transforming to meet the current and future needs of society. To meet the ever increasing demands for detailed Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS), the NWS must fully leverage probabilistic information. We are building our expertise and tools to increase our capacity to understand, interpret and communicate risk-based, probabilistic information to drive probabilistic IDSS. A successful implementation of Probabilistic IDSS through our roadmap will see the NWS providing effective probabilistic guidance through our products and services to allow our Core Partners and the public to make informed risk-based decisions based on their unique circumstances, risk tolerances, and decision thresholds for all time scales from minutes to months.

Enabling effective delivery of probabilistic IDSS will require a shift from a current focus on labor intensive manual deterministic forecast grid production, to a streamlined production of a set of probabilistic guidance. A critical capability for success is a fully-probabilistic guidance database sourced from state-of-the-art science, and using cutting-edge post-processing techniques that will serve as calibrated and statistically reliable foundational hydrometeorological data in tandem with Social, Behavioral, and Economic Science (SBES) information to support our provision of IDSS. Rather than focusing on grid production, NWS forecasters (meteorologists, hydrologists, and physical scientists) will be freed to focus on the interpretation of our probabilistic guidance through advanced ensemble-based visualization tools to provide products and services tailored to helping Core Partners and the public assess their risk and potential impacts from hazardous weather, water, and climate events.

This presentation will highlight the key goals and objectives that comprise the Probabilistic IDSS roadmap. This roadmap will galvanize current and future projects into a cohesive strategy; applying social, behavioral and economic science, innovative technological development, and evidence-based testing and evaluation. Opportunities for future collaborations among the weather, water, and climate enterprise to help make this vision of probabilistic IDSS a reality will also be highlighted.