Probabilistic Forecasting Products and Tool Development at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) vision of being America’s go to Center for high-impact precipitation and hazardous weather events is supported by the Development and Training Branch (DTB) of WPC. WPC forecast operations range from short term (<6hrs) to long term (up to 7 days). WPC is focused on high-impact precipitation (heavy rainfall, heavy snowfall, and ice) in the short term. At longer time ranges, WPC forecasters prepare forecasts of sensible weather elements (temperature, dewpoint, wind, sky, precipitation, and chance of precipitation) with particular focus on potential weather hazards.

In order to support and advance WPC’s forecast operations; a cornerstone of the WPC is the R2O process. The DTB within WPC engages in collaborative efforts with many scientists throughout the meteorological community focused on heavy rainfall, heavy snowfall, and medium range forecasts. One method for engaging the community is through the Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT) at WPC. Particular focus is given to the use of ensembles in the forecast process as well as production of probabilistic products and forecast tools. This presentation will highlight the activities that support operations through R2O to enhance the National Weather Service’s Weather Ready Nation initiative.