Session 10 Probability and Verification for High Impact Weather Events I

Wednesday, 31 January 2024: 10:45 AM-12:00 PM
302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Submitters:
Tara L. Jensen, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD and Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV
CoChair:
Jason J. Levit

This session seeks presentations that present the use of probability and uncertainty analysis or advanced verification or validation techniques in the areas of High Impact Weather Events such as Fire, Severe Storms, Tropical Cyclones, Hydrometerological and others.

Papers:
10:45 AM
10.1
Probabilistic Forecasting Products and Tool Development at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
James A. Nelson Jr., NCEP, College Park, MD

11:00 AM
10.2
Evaluation of QPF from NCAR's 5.5 and 8.5 Day Convection-Allowing Ensembles Against WPC and Operational Guidance
Benjamin S. Albright, SAIC, Gaithersburg, MD; and J. A. Nelson Jr. and C. S. Schwartz

11:15 AM
10.3
Leveraging Probabilistic High Resolution Model Guidance to Improve Flash Flood Forecasting Across Southern Utah
Mike Seaman, NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Church and J. A. Cunningham

11:30 AM
10.4
Evaluating the Performance of NSSL’s Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System using the METplus Verification Scorecard
Brian C. Matilla, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), NOAA NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, P. S. Skinner, T. A. Jones, J. Martin, and K. H. Knopfmeier

11:45 AM
10.5
Spatial Aligned Mean Ensemble Consensus Method Applied to CAM Precipitation Forecasts in the 2023 FFaIR Experiment
Chang Jae Lee, CAPS, Norman, OK; and K. A. Brewster and P. Spencer

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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