2B Probabilistic Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis: Theory and Application I

Monday, 29 January 2024: 10:45 AM-12:00 PM
340 (The Baltimore Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Chair:
Huiling Yuan, Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing
Cochairs:
Yu Zhang, The University of Texas at Arlington, Department of Civil Engineering, Arlington, TX and Kuolin Hsu, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA

Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting is a comprehensive integration of physical modeling, probability and statistics, and numerical methods. Model ensembles, parameter optimization, data assimilation, and input data quality can all contribute to forecast uncertainties. Significant challenges exist in improving probabilistic forecasts and addressing associated uncertainties in hydrometeorological applications. This session solicits papers on theoretical, experimental, and applied studies focusing on ensemble forecasting and uncertainty analysis in both offline and coupled systems. The topics include but are not limited to:

  • Integrated ensemble methods to improve hydrometeorological forecasting.
  • Statistical postprocessing techniques to generate hydrometeorological data products. Machine learning methods and applications are highly encouraged.
  • Advanced optimization methods to calibrate parameters.
  • Uncertainties in forcing data, initial conditions, parameters, and model structure and components.
  • Verification methods to evaluate probabilistic forecasting.

Submitters: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China and Yu Zhang, Department of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX

Papers:
11:00 AM
2B.2
11:15 AM
2B.3
How many members are necessary to reduce errors in ensemble spread in hydrometeorological forecasts?
Michael A. Brunke, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng, W. D. Scheftic, L. Delle Monache, M. Simpson, and D. F. Steinhoff

11:30 AM
2B.4
Impacts of Combining Various Types of Perturbation Methods on Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting of Precipitation during SCMREX
Xubin Zhang, Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou, China

11:45 AM
2B.5
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner