Session 5 Ensembles and Post-Processing I

Tuesday, 30 January 2024: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)
Host: 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs:
Tom Hamill and Cristiana Stan, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA

This session seeks papers on Ensemble and Multimodel Forecasting, including Postprocessing and Decision support

Papers:
8:30 AM
5.1
Ensemble Prediction Systems and Application at China Meteorological Administration
Jing Chen, CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, Beijing, China; CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, Beijing, China

8:45 AM
5.2
Optimizing Downscaling Strategy through Selective Culling of NOAA Operational Forecast Ensemble for Cost-Effective Prediction
Guangwei Li, Univ. of Maryland at College Park, Greenbelt, MD; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and C. Sun and X. Z. Liang

9:00 AM
5.3
Assessing the Use of Prior Skill for Merging NMME Ensembles
William D. Scheftic, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng, M. A. Brunke, M. J. DeFlorio, A. Ouyed, and E. Sanden

9:15 AM
5.4
Forecast Quality of Time-Lagged, Medium-Range, High-Resolution Ensembles over the United States
Anastasia Joy Tomanek, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and C. S. Schwartz

9:30 AM
5.5
Machine Learning Enhancement for Climate Change Projection of Hazardous Convective Weather
Nathan Erickson, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and C. M. Patricola

9:45 AM
5.6
Multivariate Similarity Metric Development for Analog Ensembles
Laura Clemente, Engineer Research and Development Center, Springfield, VA; and W. Hu, G. Cervone, and B. Hoch

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner