Actionable Intelligence from the National Water Center Products and National Water Model Visualization Services: Kentucky Flood Event July 2022

Flooding is one of the costliest natural disasters facing the U.S. and results in the second leading cause of weather related fatalities. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) National Water Center (NWC) now has a suite of experimental/publicly available products, services, and water prediction capabilities serving 3.4 million river miles across the CONUS, Hawaii, Puerto Rico/US Virgin Islands, and portions of Alaska. These products and services provide actionable intelligence to decision makers ahead of, during, and after high impact flooding disasters for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.

In July 2022, extreme rainfall produced catastrophic flooding that claimed many lives and destroyed large amounts of infrastructure in Eastern Kentucky. Flood Inundation Maps and other Impact-Based Decision Support Services were provided by the NWC to government officials to inform search and rescue operations. This presentation offers an analysis of the utility of NWC products and services throughout this flooding disaster. For example, the experimental National Hydrologic Discussion began to introduce messaging for potential flooding approximately 9 days prior to the flooding event. The experimental Flood Hazard Outlook began to highlight eastern Kentucky for potential flooding impacts approximately 5 days ahead of the catastrophic flooding. An Area Hydrologic Discussion (a short-term episodic discussion which focuses on very specific areas of potential flooding impacts) was issued for eastern KY and the surrounding region the evening before the event unfolded, messaging the potential for significant river rises with hours of lead time. Additionally, this presentation will discuss the preliminary evaluation of National Water Model experimental visualization services leading up to the event. The preliminary evaluation demonstrates the complexity of forecasting details of the rainfall event and flooding impacts, and value added by the NWC products.