Impact of Observed River and Sea Surface Temperatures on Short-Term Forecasts at Kennedy Space Center

Previous studies have shown that using sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in numerical forecast models positively impacted short-term forecasts for coastal regions. The goal of this research is to determine whether using observed water temperatures improves short-term forecasts of deep convection and surface conditions in the geographically complex coastal region of Cape Canaveral, FL. The domain of study includes the Atlantic Ocean as well as the two inland rivers. Simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configured as a convection allowing model. Except for the use of including observed water temperatures, initial and boundary conditions are provided by the High-Resolution Rapid Update (HRRR) model. Simulations with and without observed water temperatures are performed for select days during the 2022 warm-season. Hourly simulated reflectivity from the two model runs is evaluated against observed reflectivity gathered from the Multi-Radar/ Multi-Sensor (MRMS) System using the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE). Hourly simulated surface conditions are verified against those from mesonet sites throughout the study area. Statistical metrics comparing the two WRF simulations will highlight differences between the two model runs.