Individual Differences and Perceptions in Interpreting a New Wind Exceedance Graphic

Designing a new hurricane forecast map graphic affords the opportunity to develop and test the graphic with its intended audiences before being made operational. The wind exceedance graphic, which stems from the update to the Windspeed Probability Model (WSP2.0), was developed concurrently between mathematical modelers and social scientists in 2022. This study presents the results of a mixed methods study, testing the wind exceedance graphic with a sample of expert users (meteorologists and emergency managers) and with a public sample. Nineteen experts from Florida and Louisiana were interviewed about their preferences and interpretations of the graphic, as well as answered items to see if there were individual characteristics that influenced how accurate they were in interpreting wind exceedance data, such as risk perception, confidence, spatial cognition, and numeracy levels. A survey of 624 participants from Louisiana and Florida gathered data on the accuracy of their interpretations for the graphic, again measuring confidence, experience, spatial cognition, and numeracy levels, as well as their design preferences and risk perceptions. In both groups, numeracy and spatial cognition were found to predict accuracy of interpretation for a wind exceedance graphic prototype. Likewise, both confidence and experience were found to have a positive relationship with accuracy. Overall, this research provides a social-scientific model for how hazard risk map graphics can be studied from design through implementation. The conclusion of this project also provides practical recommendations for forecast graphic modelers who want to apply interdisciplinary design suggestions into new hurricane graphics.