Analysis of Direct and Indirect Fatalities Associated with Recent Tropical Cyclones

Analysis of fatalities attributed to recent land-falling tropical cyclones indicate that indirect fatalities outnumber fatalities directly associated with storm surge, wind, tornadoes and flash flooding. After reviewing fatality data from state medical examiners and local NWS office and National Hurricane Center post-storm assessments for Hurricanes Michael and Ian, that trend has continued in recent years. Hurricane Michael caused 8 direct fatalities and 46 indirect fatalities and Hurricane Ian’s impacts resulted in 58 direct fatalities and 91 indirect fatalities.

Further analysis of the causation and nature of the direct and indirect fatalities from Michael and Ian will be presented. In addition, fatality data from nine other storms since 2017, Harvey, Irma, Florence, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta and Nicholas, will also be presented. While the specific causations differed between tropical cyclones, vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with chronic medical conditions, constituted the significant portion of both direct and indirect fatalities. Pre-seasonal and pre-storm messaging strategies to potentially mitigate both direct and indirect fatalities will also be presented.