Engaging Stakeholders Through Co-Design: Prioritizing User Needs in Great Lakes Water Level Forecast Development

There is a critical need in the Great Lakes (GL) region for information about, and predictions of, subseasonal to annual lake level fluctuations. GL water levels are currently forecasted at a 6-month time scale, but there are uncertainties in these forecasts that limit their use. In response to this need, researchers at NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) and University of Michigan’s Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research (CIGLR) are developing a next generation prediction system for Great Lakes water levels and lake management decisions. This advanced prediction system will incorporate state-of-the-art modeling and data science to forecast GL water level changes beyond just the existing 6-month outlooks. Improved water level predictions at longer forecast horizons will allow stakeholders to make informed lake management decisions. This project is supported by NOAA Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) funding, and it will contribute to NOAA’s broader BIL Subseasonal to Annual research portfolio.

The prediction system will support informed decision making for many stakeholders in the Great Lakes region including, but not limited to, adaptation professionals, emergency managers, public health and human service professionals, developers, land use and municipal planners, engineers, water and natural resource managers, coastal and floodplain managers, and policy makers. The next generation forecast will offer new opportunities for application to adaptive management of GL outflows by water management organizations such as the International Joint Commission, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Environment and Climate Change Canada. Industry professionals may use the system in economic sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, energy, navigation, manufacturing, shipping and transportation, real estate, tourism, and recreation. Even residents of Great Lakes coastal communities may use outputs from the prediction system when making decisions about their property or recreation plans.

To ensure successful development and application of the advanced forecast system, GLERL and CIGLR researchers will collaborate closely with project stakeholders and forecast end-users throughout the entirety of the project from model design and development to model evaluation, validation, and application. Guiding this collaboration is a team of Research Engagement Specialists, who employ a collaborative design approach (co-design) to engage GL water managers, stakeholders, rights holders, and decision makers in the development of the next-gen forecast. The co-design process is about designing with, and not just for end-users. Co-design helps ensure that project deliverables are useful, efficient, effective, and accessible, and that the project will meet the needs of decision makers in the GL region.

The Research Engagement Specialists will apply a social science lens to assess forecast user needs and usability of product prototypes. As a first step, the specialists used the social science software MAXQDA to accomplish three goals: 1) inventory other related projects in GL water level forecasting, 2) identify potential project collaborators, and 3) identify thousands of stakeholders, rights holders, and end users who may be impacted by the project. The specialists then developed a plan to utilize surveys, interviews, workshops, working groups, and focus groups to collect quantitative and qualitative data about stakeholder needs and use that data to guide product design. The specialists also plan to guide the dissemination of project information and deliverables to broad audiences basin-wide through frequent updates, engagements, and communications with interested/impacted parties.

In addition, the Research Engagement Specialists will facilitate the transition of the next generation prediction system from a research setting at GLERL to an operational setting at the USACE Detroit District, who it is hoped will ultimately produce and disseminate forecasts to a broad group of stakeholders. USACE Detroit was identified as the optimal operational host of the forecast after an engagement workshop in May, 2023: Collaborating on Subseasonal to Annual Water Level Forecasting in the Great Lakes. This half-day workshop brought together ~80 water level prediction operators, users, and stakeholders to increase collaboration in subseasonal to annual GL water level forecasting. Attendees shared information on agency/organization missions, project scopes, and relevant existing/in development products. Workshop conversations revealed that USACE Detroit District has the technical ability and organizational capacity to host the forecast, and that doing so aligns with their agency mission. USACE Detroit, explicitly expressed a desire to host the forecast and engage in the co-design process. Therefore, the project team and USACE staff will collaborate closely to design the next-gen prediction system and transition it to operational use.

Next steps of this project include 1) a user needs assessment for both forecasting needs and decision support tool needs/design; 2) transition planning with USACE Detroit District to ensure a smooth product handoff; 3) continue to co-design the next-gen prediction system framework via engagements with technical working groups, stakeholder groups, and the operational host; 4) usability testing of existing products and project prototypes