J1 Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) I: Stakeholder Needs and Priorities & Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) I: Predictions and Predictability

Monday, 29 January 2024: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
Holiday 6 (Hilton Baltimore Inner Harbor)
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the Forum on Climate Linked Economics )
Chair:
Mark Olsen, NOAA/OAR/OWAQ, Silver Spring, MD
Cochairs:
Jessie C. Carman, OAR, WPO, Silver Spring, MD; Andrew W. Robertson, CPC, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD; Christine Bassett, University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Springfield, OR; Do-Hyuk (D. K.) Kang, NASA, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD and Yan Xue, NOAA NWS, Silver Spring, MD

In recent years, we have seen increasing demands for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts and products in hydrologic, transportation, agriculture, fisheries and other sectors that require specific information at different times to meet decision makers’ needs. As our S2S forecast systems are developing, we need to ensure that we are appropriately targeting the water resources, agriculture, fisheries, energy and defense needs of users. National Research Council studies and a recent survey by the Federal agencies have attempted to highlight needs for S2S prediction, yet a clear path to success remains elusive. A joint Federal effort to address S2S prediction has been proposed if a tractable path can be described.

This first session in a three part S2S-focused series highlights stakeholder needs and priorities for subseasonal (weeks) to seasonal (up to two years) forecast products and information. Parts 2 and 3 will focus on S2S Prediction/predictability and S2S Forecast system developments. For this session, we invite presentations addressing the pressing needs for S2S forecast information, current products in use, including forecast calibration and multi-model combination, metrics for evaluating products, and challenges around information dissemination and communication.

Papers:
8:30 AM
J1.1
Engaging Stakeholders Through Co-Design: Prioritizing User Needs in Great Lakes Water Level Forecast Development
Megan DiCocco, Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, Ann Arbor, MI; and R. Ravary, L. Fry, Y. Hong, and D. Fielder

8:45 AM
J1.2
Potential Users Evaluate Product Content and Design for Subseasonal Extreme Precipitation Forecasts
Melanie A. Schroers, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. Dickinson, E. R. Martin, R. A. McPherson, P. Ćwik, and E. D. Mullens

9:00 AM
J1.3
The Global Hydro-Intelligence Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (GHI-S2S) Forecast System
Kristi R. Arsenault, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; SAIC, Reston, VA; and R. A. Zamora, S. Mahanama, J. W. Wegiel, S. V. Kumar, PhD, E. M. Kemp, A. Getirana, Y. Yoon, A. Hazra, M. Navari, D. M. Mocko, and R. A. Wade

Handout (7.6 MB)

9:15 AM
J1.4
S2S and Climate Predictability and Process Research Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office
Jin Huang, Ph.D., NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and V. Selz and D. Barrie

9:30 AM
J1.5
Week 2 Forecasts in High Resolution Prototypes of NOAA/NCEP’s Future GFSv17
Lydia Stefanova, Lynker at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and W. Li, J. Meixner, J. Peng, S. Ray, M. Row, C. Thomas, J. Wang, M. J. Barlage, F. Yang, and A. Mehra

9:45 AM
J1.6
Ensemble Predictability of Week 3 to 4 Precipitation and Temperature over the United States via Cluster Analysis of the Large-Scale Circulation.
David M. Straus, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and G. C. Jennrich, C. Baggett, and M. Chelliah

Handout (4.9 MB)

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner