Examining Future African NH Summer Dust Concentrations and Westward Transport using WRF for Present Day, Mid and Late 21st Century with MPI boundary conditions

Every year mineral dust from the Sahara Desert is transported westward from the Western Sahara Desert across the Tropical Atlantic to the Caribbean Basin, and the southeastern parts of the United States, degrading air quality, and affecting the health of sensitive groups, especially from May through August. We examine the future of MJJA summer season dust in the mid to late 21century using Coast using the Weather Research and Forecast model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-CHEM) which is driven at its lateral boundary at 20km grid spacing. We use the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System model using SSP1-26 and SSP5-85 as initial and lateral boundary conditions for 1981-2010, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. Our results show that higher temperatures are associated with increases in dust at 850 and 700 hPa during MJJA. We will also examine changes in the westward transport of dust into the Eastern Atlantic from Africa for the mid to late 21^st century for low and high emission MPI scenarios.