Program: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change (104th AMS Annual Meeting)

Hosts: (Joint between the Virtual Posters; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; and the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface )

Cochairs: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah; Suzana J. Camargo, PhD, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University; Kyle R. Knipper, USDA; Stephanie J. Avey

V18

37CVC Wildfires and Greenhouse Gases across the Southwestern USA

Nolan Tai, Troy High School, Fullerton, CA; and X. Jiang and Y. Yung

V19

37CVC Are the Extreme Marine Heatwave Events in the Central-eastern Tropical Pacific Predictable 30–60 Days in Advance by NUIST CFS1.1 Model?

Lin Lin, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Handout (3.2 MB)

V20

37CVC Teleconnections Link to Summer Heat Extremes in the South-Central U.S.: Insights from CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations

Jung Hee Ryu, Gangneung-Wonju National University, Gangneung, South korea; Gangneung-Wonju National University, Gangneung-si, Gangwon-do, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. L. Kang

V22

37CVC Short-term Dependence Between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific-North-American (PNA) Indices and its Connection to Predictability and Standard Flow Indices

Justin McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau and J. D. Doyle

V21

37CVC Deep Learning Base Heatwave and Tropical Night Prediction Model Using Local Ensemble Prediction System

V23

37CVC Assessing the Impact of the Recent Warming in the East China Sea on a Torrential Rain Event in Northern Kyushu (Japan) in Early July 2017

Atsuyoshi Manda, Mie University, Tsu, Mie, Japan; and S. Iizuka, H. Nakamura, and T. Miyasaka

V24

37CVC The Effect of Human Emissions on the Level of Atmospheric CO2

Edwin X Berry, Ed Berry LLC, Bigfork, MT

V24A

37CVC Future Contribution of African Easterly Waves to Precipitation Extreme Events in CMIP6

Tomviezibe Cephas Dombo, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, New Delhi, DL, India; Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria; and K. M. AchutaRao and S. Sukumaran

V25

38HYDRO The Effect of Greenhouse Gas Induced Warming on the Impact of El Niño and La Niña Events on Precipitation Extremes

Qiaohong Sun, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and F. W. Zwiers and X. ZHANG

V26

38HYDRO Recent Developments of the 200-Member West-WRF Near Real-Time Forecast Ensemble

Daniel F. Steinhoff, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, San Diego, CA; and B. Kawzenuk, M. Simpson, N. R. Mascioli, M. Ghazvinian, PhD, A. Sengupta, L. Delle Monache, R. Weihs, C. Papadopoulos, and M. M. Ralph

V27

38HYDRO Understanding the Sensitivity of Different Drought Indices to Soil Moisture Variations in Africa

Aolin Jia, Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Belvaux, ESCH-SUR-ALZETTE, Luxembourg; and T. Hu and K. Mallick

V27A

38HYDRO Landsat Imagery Shows a Recent Accelerating Rate of Increase in Land Evapotranspiration.

Hadi Jaafar, PhD, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon; and L. Sujud

V27B

38HYDRO Use of Machine Learned Mutual Information Between Drought Factors Influencing the USDM

Michael Shaw, NOAA, Manchester; NOAA, Asheville, NC; and S. Ansari, D. M. Mocko, S. Yatheendradas, and J. Fain

Manuscript (54.8 kB)

Handout (726.5 kB)

V27C

38HYDRO Estimating 3-m Evapotranspiration Using Planet, OpenET, and Machine Learning Techniques

Rui Gao, PhD, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS; and Y. Yang, K. Knipper, M. Mar Alsina, L. A. Sanchez, F. Melton, H. Nieto, N. E. Bambach, F. Gao, J. Alfieri, M. C. Anderson, W. Kustas, L. E. Hipps, and A. Torres-Rua

V28

24SMOI Fog Structure and Stability at Sable Island in July 2022

Clive Edgar Dorman, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and D. Koračin and G. Gašparac

V29

24SMOI The Kavaratti Project: Meteorology Over the Lakshadweep Sea For Climate Simulation

NARAYANAN M KOMERATH, Taksha Institute, Hampton, VA; Taksha Institute, Hampton, VA; and S. Meti, R. Ramachandran, and R. Deepak

V30

24SMOI Infrasonic Detection of Tornadoes Using Interferometric Beamforming

Christopher Francis Sterpka, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Smyrna, GA

V31

24SMOI Winds over DC

William Pendergrass, ATDD, OAK RIDGE, TN; and N. Lichiheb, A. Stein, S. Baidar, and W. A. Brewer

V31A

24SMOI Particulate Matter in the American Southwest: Detection and Analysis of Dust Storms Using Surface Measurements and Ground-Based LIDAR

Joscelyne Guzman-Gonzalez, NCAS-M II, EL PASO, TX

V32

28IOAS NWP-Based Evaluation of Radiosonde Network and AMDAR Data in China

JIAN XIA GUO, CMA Meteorological Observation Center, BEIJING, 11, China

V32A

2FUTURE Implementing, Strengthening and Sustaining Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Stephanie Gallasch, M.A., WMO, Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; and R. Martinez Guingla

V32AB

2FUTURE Application of XGBoost to Site-specific Weather Forecast in Australia

Mengmeng Han, BoM, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; and T. Leeuwenburg and B. Murphy

Presidential Forum: Climate Science as Service to Society

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Moderator: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT

Panelists: Bob Inglis, republicEn.org; Monica P. Medina, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS)

AMS Career Resource & Graduate School Fair

Location: Hall D (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the 23rd Annual Student Conference; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Annual Meeting Welcome Reception

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the 23rd Annual Student Conference; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 1A

Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate: Jet Streams, Storm Tracks, Stationary Waves, and Monsoons I

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Gang Chen, University of California at Los Angeles; Aditi Sheshadri, Rice Univ.; Jezabel Curbelo; Marianna Linz, Harvard University; Sandro W. Lubis, Rice University

8:30 AM

1A.1

The Hadley Cells Across Seasons and the Solar System

Spencer A. Hill, The City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. Mitchell, J. M. Lora, S. Bordoni, and A. O. Gonzalez

8:45 AM

1A.2

Nonlinearity of Atmospheric Circulation response to increased CO2

Darryn W. Waugh, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and X. Zhang, C. Orbe, I. Mitevski, and L. M. Polvani

9:00 AM

1A.3

Vertical and Regional Patterns of Tropical Circulation Response to Increased CO2

Molly E Menzel, GISS, New York, NY; and C. Orbe

Handout (6.5 MB)

9:15 AM

1A.4

Atmospheric Response to a Collapse of the North Atlantic Circulation Under a Mid-Range Future Scenario: A Regime Shift in Northern Hemisphere Dynamics

Clara Orbe, GISS, New York, NY; and D. Rind, R. L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, A. Romanou, J. Jonas, G. L. Russell, M. Kelley, and G. A. Schmidt

9:30 AM

1A.5

Coupling between Hadley Circulation Strength Variability and Wind-stress-driven Ocean Circulation is Hemisphere Dependent

Mahdi Hasan, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Larson, K. McMonigal, W. A. Robinson, and A. Aiyyer

1A.6

The Influence of SST on Walker Circulation Strength

Session 1B

Seasonal-to-Decadal Earth System Prediction I

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

CoChair: Stephen G. Yeager, NCAR

8:30 AM

1B.1

Sea Surface Salinity as a Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictor for Summer Precipitation in the Midwest

Juliette Rocha, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and M. Arcodia, J. K. Rader, M. Fernandez, and E. A. Barnes

8:45 AM

1B.2

An Extratropical Contribution to the Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Seasonal Climate Prediction

Jeff Knight, The Met Office, Exeter, United kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United kingdom; and A. A. Scaife and A. Maidens

9:00 AM

1B.3

Impact of ENSO and Trends on the Distribution of North American Wintertime Daily Temperature

Emily J. Becker, University of Miami, Miami, FL; CIMAS Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and M. K. Tippett

9:15 AM

1B.4

Seasonal Predictability of Weather Type Frequencies Over the Contiguous United States

Erin Towler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Done, M. Ge, A. F. Prein, and E. Gilleland

9:30 AM

1B.5

Separation of Interanual Signals into Decadal and Shorter Time Scales in Dynamical Ensembles for Seasonal Forecasting.

Dan C. Collins, CPC, College Park, MD

9:45 AM

1B.6

Skillful Prediction of Length of Day One Year Ahead and Its Relationship with El-Nino Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Hyunsuk Yoon, Seoul National University, Ulsan, South korea; and J. Choi and S. W. Son

Session 1C

Risk of Climate Change and Natural Hazards

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Suzana J. Camargo, PhD, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University; Chia-Ying Lee, LDEO

8:30 AM

1C.1

Storylines of Unprecedented Extreme Weather

Erin Coughlan de Perez, Tufts University, Boston, MA; and I. G. Masukwedza, I. N. Jeffries, B. Tietjen, and J. Clark

8:45 AM

1C.2

Future Changes in Severe Thunderstorm Environments Over the United States: A Synoptic-Scale Approach

Deepak Gopalakrishnan, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen, R. J. Trapp, and E. Robinson

9:00 AM

1C.3

Global Assessment of Compound Tropical Cyclone-Heat Hazards in a Changing Climate

Samantha Frucht, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and J. W. Baldwin

9:15 AM

1C.4

Mapping Heat Risks Using A Non-Parametric Multivariate Approach

Naveen Sudharsan, PhD, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and H. Kamath, Z. L. Yang, and D. Niyogi

9:30 AM

1C.5

Future Climate Change Projections of Wildfire Risk in Western U.S.

Peter J. Sousounis, Verisk, Boston, MA; and A. Clarke and R. Grenier

9:45 AM

1C.6

Climate Speeds Help Frame Relative Ecological Risk in Future Climate Change and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenarios

Daniel M. Hueholt, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, J. W. Hurrell, and A. Morrison

J1B

Toward Hydrologically Useful and Actionable Climate and Weather Model Output: Development, Evaluation, and Applications of Downscaling and Post-processing Methods

Location: 340 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Naomi Goldenson

Cochairs: Mimi R. Abel, NOAA; Ethan D. Gutmann; Rachel R. McCrary; Daniel Feldman, LBNL

8:30 AM

J1B.1

When science colors outside the lines: Incorporating uncertain future extreme precipitation projections into conventional engineering for high-hazard infrastructure (Invited)

Kelly M. Mahoney, NOAA, BOULDER, CO; and B. McCormick and J. Lukas

8:45 AM

J1B.2

Developing Customized Downscaled Climate Projections for the Long-Term Management of the Edwards Aquifer System under a Warming Climate

Adrienne Wootten, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. Basagaoglu, P. Bertetti, D. Chakraborty, C. Sharma, M. Samimi, and A. Mirchi

9:00 AM

J1B.3

A Statewide, Weather-Regime based Stochastic Weather Generator for California

Nasser Najibi, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and A. Weyant, A. J. Perez, W. Arnold, A. Schwarz, A. Gershunov, R. Maendly, and S. Steinschneider

9:15 AM

J1B.4

Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Methods for Regional Precipitation Over CONUS Using a K-Means Weather Typing Algorithm

Nicholas D. Lybarger, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. D. Gutmann, S. Hartke, T. Eidhammer, S. McGinnis, A. J. Newman, and A. W. Wood

9:30 AM

J1B.5

Intercomparison of Regional Reanalysis Datasets over Italy and Hydrological Applications for the Electro-energy System

Francesca Viterbo, RSE S.p.A., Milano, Italy; and F. Cavalleri, R. Bonanno, S. Sperati, and M. Lacavalla

9:45 AM

J1B.6

Precipitation hazards viewed through "grey swan" tropical cyclones simulated by 3km Earth system models (Invited)

Colin M. Zarzycki, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. N. DeCiampa

Coffee Break [Main Terrace (BCC), Camden Lobby (BCC), Hall E (BCC)]

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

2

Learning from Weather Modification in the Era of Growing Interest in Climate Intervention

Location: 314 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the Presidential Conference; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the First Symposium on Cloud Physics )

Chairs: Sarah A. Tessendorf; Sarah Doherty, Univ. of Washington

Panelists: Robert Wood; Isabelle Steinke, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Robert M. Rauber, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign

10:45 AM

Panel Discussion

Sarah A. Tessendorf, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Doherty

Session 2A

Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate: Jet Streams, Storm Tracks, Stationary Waves, and Monsoons II

Location: 315 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Gang Chen, University of California at Los Angeles; Aditi Sheshadri, Rice Univ.; Jezabel Curbelo; Marianna Linz, Harvard University; Sandro W. Lubis, M.Sc, Ph.D.,, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

10:45 AM

2A.1

Radiation-circulation Destabilization of ITCZ Latitude in an Idealized GCM: Response to External Forcing (Invited Presentation)

Timothy M. Merlis, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ

11:00 AM

2A.2

Dynamical Importance of the Trade Wind Inversion in Suppressing the Southeast Pacific ITCZ

Alex Omar Gonzalez, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and I. Ganguly, M. Osterloh, G. Cesana, and C. A. DeMott

11:15 AM

2A.3

Westward Propagating Tropical Waves in a Full-Physics Idealized Climate Simulation

Gabrielle Keaton, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and W. A. Robinson, G. E. Tierney, and G. M. Lackmann

Accurate Column Moist Static Energy Budget in GISS ModelE3

11:30 AM

2A.4

Impact of Subtropical Jet on the Precipitation Variabilities over the Arabian Region Using a Gray-Zone Regional Model

Sourav Taraphdar, PNNL, Richland, WA; and D. Gopalakrishnan, C. Liu, O. Pauluis, L. Xue, PhD, A. M. Rvindran, R. M. Rasmussen, L. R. Leung, W. W. Grabowski, S. Chen, and S. A. Tessendorf

Session 2B

Seasonal-to-Decadal Earth System Prediction II

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

CoChair: Stephen G. Yeager, NCAR

10:45 AM

2B.1

On the Role of External Atmospheric Forcing for the Seasonal Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoons

Annalisa Cherchi, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy; and A. Alessandri, E. Tourigny, J. Acosta, and F. Catalano

11:00 AM

2B.2

Investigation of Seasonal Predictability and Forecast Skill of Arabian Peninsula Wet Season Rainfall using Recalibrated Multimodel Ensembles

Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, IRI, Palisades, NY; and A. W. Robertson, J. Yuan, M. K. Tippett, B. Singh, M. Zampieri, T. Luong, and I. Hoteit

11:15 AM

2B.3

Evaluation of the Forecast Skill of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble for Monthly and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts over Central America

Gloria Cristina Recalde, CPC, College Park, MD; NOAA, College Park, MD; UCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. M. Thiaw, E. B. Bekele, and V. Kumar

11:30 AM

2B.4

Assessing the Impact of Bhuvan Vegetation Data on the interactions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO in Earth System Model Simulations/Predictions.

ROSIMITHA PANDA, IITM, Pune, MH, India; and R. PV, C. Gnanaseelan, A. Parekh, D. Patekar, R. Kakatkar, R. U. PAI, and S. Halder

11:45 AM

2B.5

Effects of the Realistic Representation of Vegetation Variability on Climate Predictions at Seasonal and Decadal Time Scales.

Andrea Alessandri, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy; and E. Di Carlo, F. van Oorschot, F. Catalano, A. Cherchi, G. Balsamo, S. boussetta, and T. N. Stockdale

Session 2C

Clouds, Radiation, Climate Sensitivity and the Pattern of Warming

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Yue Dong, CIRES; Ivan Mitevski, Princeton University

10:45 AM

2C.1

MODIS-Based Evaluation of Low Cloud Amount Indices: “Do the Spatiotemporal Scales Matter?”

Daeho Jin, Univ. of Maryland - BC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Oreopoulos and D. Lee

11:00 AM

2C.2

Spatial Patterns of Cloud Trends from SBUV Observations Compared with Simulated Trends of Clouds and Ssts from CMIP6 Models Since 1980

clark weaver, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and D. L. Wu, R. J. Salawitch, G. Labow, D. P. Haffner, and L. McBride

11:15 AM

2C.3

The Quasi-Linear Relation between Planetary Outgoing Longwave Radiation and Surface Temperature: A Climate Footprint of Radiative and Non-Radiative Processes

Jie Sun, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. Cai, F. Ding, W. Kang, and X. Hu

2C.4

Mechanisms of the Pattern Effect in CAM6

2C.5

Influence of Observed Multi-Decadal Southern Ocean SST Variability on the Tropics since 1949

Lunch Break

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 3A

Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate: Jet Streams, Storm Tracks, Stationary Waves, and Monsoons III

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Gang Chen, University of California at Los Angeles; Aditi Sheshadri, Rice Univ.; Jezabel Curbelo; Sandro W. Lubis, M.Sc, Ph.D.,, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

1:45 PM

3A.1

The Influence of South American Monsoon Rainfall on Weather Patterns over the Northern tropical Atlantic, Northwestern Africa and Western Europe

Rong Fu, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and S. Zhao

2:00 PM

3A.2

Causes of the Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon: Emphasis on Physical Processes

Song Yang, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China; and S. lin and B. Dong

2:15 PM

3A.3

A Strengthened Teleconnection of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Easterly Jet in the Past Decades in E3SMv1

Yuanpu Li, CGD, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Richter, J. C. C. Chen, and Q. Tang

Handout (7.0 MB)

2:30 PM

3A.4

Influence of the Tropical Easterly Jet on the Bay of Bengal's Tropical Cyclones under Climate Change

Abdullah A. Fahad, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and O. Reale, A. Molod, T. A. Sany, M. T. Ahammad, and D. Menemenlis

2:45 PM

3A.5

Differences in the Timing of Peak Precipitation and Peak Storm Track Activity over Central Southwest Asia

Melissa Leah Breeden, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and A. J. Hoell, J. R. Albers, and K. Slinski

Session 3B

Seasonal-to-Decadal Earth System Prediction III

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

CoChair: Stephen G. Yeager, NCAR

1:45 PM

3B.1

A New Initialization Strategy for IITM Decadal Prediction System and Its Impact on the Representation of Meridional Heat and Salt Transport in the Indian Ocean

RAHUL U PAI, IITM, PUNE, Maharashtra, India; and D. JS, C. Gnanaseelan, A. Parekh, R. PV, D. Patekar, R. PANDA, and R. Kakatkar

2:00 PM

3B.2

GEOS/Ecco Coupled Model and Data Assimilation System for Decadal Prediction

Andrea Molod, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. Menemenlis, A. A. Fahad, C. Hill, P. Heimbach, A. Trayanov, J. M. campin, E. Strobach, H. Zhang, and A. Nguyen

2:15 PM

3B.3

Impact of Volcanic Aerosol Forcing on the Decadal Prediction of Air Temperature

Darshana Dasharath Patekar, IITM, Pune, MH, India; and S. Halder, C. Gnanaseelan, A. Parekh, R. PV, R. Kakatkar, R. U. PAI, R. PANDA, and J. S. Chowdary

2:30 PM

3B.4

Preparing Decadal Prediction Centers for a Major Volcanic Eruption: The SPARC/DCPP Volcanic Response Readiness Exercise

William Merryfield, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; and R. Sospedra-Alfonso, M. Toohey, and C. Timmreck

2:45 PM

3B.5

Reduced Southern Ocean Warming Enhances Global Skill and Signal-to-Noise in an Eddy-Resolving Decadal Prediction System

Stephen G. Yeager, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. Chang, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, Q. Zhang, F. Castruccio, A. Gopal, M. C. Rencurrel, and I. R. Simpson

Session 3C

Walter Orr Roberts Lecture

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Suzana J. Camargo, PhD, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University; Timothy M. Lahmers, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA-GSFC)

1:45 PM

Introductory Remarks

2:00 PM

3C.1

Can We Get Ahead of This, and Should We?: Timescales of Prediction and Their Beneficiaries

Benjamin F. Zaitchik, The Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD

Coffee Break & Formal Poster Viewing

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Poster Session 1 - 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Randall Patrick Benson, PhD, Xcel Energy Wildfire Mitigation; Ross D. Dixon

25

Dynamical Mechanisms Underlying the 2022/23 California Flooding: Analysis with a Stationary Wave Model

Anthony M. DeAngelis, GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert, Y. Chang, Y. K. Lim, N. P. Thomas, R. D. Koster, M. G. Bosilovich, A. Molod, A. Collow, and A. Dezfuli

Handout (5.9 MB) Handout (6.6 MB)

26

Improving the Representation of Tropical Variability and its Large-Scale Teleconnections in NOAA's Unified Forecast System

27

Stratosphere-Troposphere Transport of Ozone Associated with Atmospheric Rivers

Kirsten Renee Hall, Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian, Cambridge, MA; and H. wang, A. Souri, X. Liu, and K. Chance

Handout (19.0 MB)

28

Differentiating Between Impactful and Non-Impactful Atmospheric River Events in Southeast Alaska

Deanna L. Nash, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and J. J. Rutz and A. Jacobs

29

The Influence of the North Atlantic Subtropical High on Atmospheric Rivers Over the Eastern United States

Julia E. Finkhauser, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and University, Blacksburg, VA

31

Global Changes in Water Vapor from Observations and Reanalysis Products

Olivier Bock, IPGP-IGN, Paris, France; and C. A. Mears, S. P. Ho, X. zhou, and X. Shao

32

The Need for Continued Stratospheric Water Vapor Measurements

Karen H. Rosenlof, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. M. Davis, PhD, T. Thornberry, and E. Asher

30

Observations of an Atmospheric River over New England in Late October 2017

33

A New Quarter-degree Global Atmospheric Rivers Database Based on ERA5, 1940–2022

Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser

34

The Development of a Wildfire Simulator

Daniel Guerin, The Co-operators, Quebec, QC, Canada

35

Super-Volcanic Eruptions May Not Cause Catastrophic Cooling

Zachary McGraw, Columbia University, New York, NY; NASA GISS, New York, NY; and K. DallaSanta, L. M. Polvani, K. Tsigaridis, C. Orbe, and S. Bauer

36

Counting Global Tropical Cyclones: It’s Harder Than It Sounds!

Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and H. J. Diamond, K. R. Knapp, J. Gahtan, and P. J. Klotzbach

Handout (1.5 MB)

37

Downscaling of Global to Local Scale Climate Change Impactsaround Pituffik Space Base, Greenland

Gina R. Henderson, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and J. Guerard, A. Metzger, J. R. Preece, and T. Mote

38

Atmospheric Blocking Characteristics in Two Storm-Resolving Gcms

Edgar Dolores Tesillos, Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, BE, Switzerland; and O. Martius

39

Explaining the Seasonal Cycle of Summer Monsoon Rainfall Over the Arabian Sea and Western India

Savannah Lee Ferretti, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and J. W. Baldwin, N. Liu, Q. Nicolas, W. R. Boos, and M. S. Pritchard

40

North East/Winter Monsoon over South Asia

Unnikrishnan Chirikandath Kalath, PhD, NCESS, Thiruvananthapuram, KL, India; Jackson School of Geosciences, UT, Austin, Austin, TX; and V. Santhana and M. Rajeevan

41

Upper Colorado River Streamflow Dependencies on Summertime Synoptic Circulations and Hydroclimate Variability

Zachary Freitag Johnson, Central Michigan University, Mt Pleasant, MI; Central Michigan University, Mt Pleasant, MI; and J. Stuivenvolt Allen, H. Mahan, J. D. D. Meyer, and M. D. Miksch

42

Topography-Albedo Feedback and the Shifting Arctic Ice Pack

David Gluckman, University of Utah, Salt Lake City , UT; and R. Hardenbrook and K. M. Golden

Toward Hydrologically Useful and Actionable Climate and Weather Model Output: Development, Evaluation, and Applications of Downscaling and Post-processing Methods - Posters

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Naomi Goldenson

Cochairs: Mimi R. Abel, NOAA; Ethan D. Gutmann; Rachel R. McCrary; Daniel Feldman, LBNL

18

Evaluation of Multivariate Downscaling of GEOS S2S Meteorological Forecasts Using Climate Regionalization for the Amazon

Prakrut Kansara, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik

19

Multi-model ensemble of precipitation changes of the Pearl River Basin and its impact to the water resources

Mengfei He, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; and Y. Chen

20

Leveraging Internal Variability to Assess Regional Vulnerability to Atmospheric Rivers Using a High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulation

Ethan D. Gutmann, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Harrell, M. Warner, A. W. Wood, N. Mizukami, A. Smith, W. R. Currier, T. Eidhammer, B. Kruyt, and C. D. Frans

21

The Fall 2023 Interagency Workshop on Assessing U.S. Regional Climate Data for Decision Making

Daniel Feldman, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and H. Lee, F. Lipschultz, T. Spero, and P. Ullrich

Handout (6.1 MB)

Session 4A

Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate: Jet Streams, Storm Tracks, Stationary Waves, and Monsoons IV

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Gang Chen, University of California at Los Angeles; Aditi Sheshadri, Rice Univ.; Jezabel Curbelo; Marianna Linz, Harvard University; SANDRO W. LUBIS, Rice University

4:30 PM

4A.1

Seasonal Cycle of the Northern Hemisphere Pacific Storm Track in terms of the Statistics of Cyclones and Anticyclones

Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY

4:45 PM

4A.2

Changes in the Local Eddy Energetics of Extratropical Storm Tracks

Joseph M. Battalio, Yale Univ., New Haven, CT; and J. M. Lora

5:00 PM

4A.3

Revisiting the Observation-Model Discrepancy in Southern Hemisphere Winter Storm Track Trends

Joonsuk M. Kang, The Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and T. A. Shaw, S. M. Kang, I. R. Simpson, and Y. Yu

5:15 PM

4A.4

Storm Track Response to Uniform Global Warming Downstream of an Idealized Sea Surface Temperature Front

Sebastian Schemm, ETH, Zurich, ZH, Switzerland; ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

5:30 PM

4A.5

Pacific Oceanic Front Amplifies the Impact of Atlantic Oceanic Front on North Atlantic Blocking

Nour-Eddine Omrani, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, bergen, 12, Norway; and H. N. Cheung, N. S. Keenlyside, F. Ogawa, H. Nakamura, and W. Zhou

5:45 PM

4A.6

Uniform Warming of Sea Surface Temperatures explain Blocking Reduction in Warming Simulations, but Pattern Changes are Important too

Veeshan T Narinesingh, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and H. Guo, S. Garner, and Y. Ming

J4B

Climate, Environment, Health, and Early Warning

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 15th Conference on Environment and Health )

Cochairs: Wassila Mamadou Thiaw, University of Colorado, Boulder; Kacey Ernst, University of Arizona

4:30 PM

Panel Discussion

Exhibit Hall Opening Reception

Location: Hall F/ Swing (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Agency Updates; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

ESWN Reception

Location: Pratt Street Ale House

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Coriolis (LGBTQ+ and Allies) Reception

Location: Pisces (Hyatt Regency Baltimore)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 5A

Heat Waves: Mechanisms, Predictability, Prediction and Impacts I

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Dan Li, Boston University; Wassila Mamadou Thiaw, University of Colorado, Boulder

8:30 AM

5A.1

Increased Frequency of Humid Heat Extremes during El Niño events (Invited Presentation)

Mingfang Ting, Columbia Climate School, NEW YORK, NY; Columbia Climate School, New York, NY; and C. Li and D. Singh

8:45 AM

5A.2

Predictability of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Heat Waves in the United States Great Plains

Benjamin Davis, University of Oklahoma, NORMAN, OK; and E. R. Martin

9:00 AM

5A.3

Heatwaves: How Little We Know About What is Happening in the Tropics

Erin Coughlan de Perez, Tufts University, Boston, MA; Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Hague, Netherlands; and J. Arrighi and J. Marunye

9:15 AM

5A.4

Stickiness: A New Variable to Characterize the Temperature and Humidity Contributions toward Humid Heat

Catherine Christine Ivanovich, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel, R. Horton, and C. Raymond

9:30 AM

5A.5

A New Class of Metrics for Quantifying the Intensity of Heat Waves Based on Relative Entropy

Augustin Vintzileos, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD

9:45 AM

5A.6

Not Just a Number: Intra-Hour Heat Metric Variability

Emily Nagamoto, Duke Univ., Durham, NC; NWS, Raleigh, NC; and G. T. Hartfield and D. Leins

Handout (867.9 kB) Handout (3.9 MB)

Session 5B

Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate: Jet Streams, Storm Tracks, Stationary Waves, and Monsoons V

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Gang Chen; Aditi Sheshadri, Rice Univ.; Jezabel Curbelo; Marianna Linz, Harvard University; Sandro W. Lubis, M.Sc, Ph.D.,, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

8:30 AM

5B.1

Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime North Pacific Blocking: What Are We Capturing and Missing?

Mingyu Park, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and N. Johnson

8:45 AM

5B.2

Insights on the North American Monsoon from Climate Simulations with Altered Topography

Benjamin O Johnson, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth

9:00 AM

5B.3

Sensitivity of Present and Future Seasonal Precipitation over Central United States to the Representation of Rocky Mountain Topography

Sherly Shelton, University of Nebraska- Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and R. D. Dixon

9:15 AM

5B.4

Present-Day Model Stationary Wave Biases Impact 21^st Century Seasonal Precipitation Projections for the Southwestern United States

Kevin M. Grise, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and X. Liu

9:30 AM

5B.5

Global Warming Impacts on Mid-Latitude Cyclone Precipitation in the NARCCAP Model Suite

Timothy Paul Eichler, CPC, Edgewater, MD

9:45 AM

5B.6

Northeastern Windstorms and Midlatitude Cyclones in the MPI Large Ensemble

Jacob J Coburn, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and F. Letson, X. Zhou, R. J. Barthelmie, and S. C. Pryor

Handout (3.1 MB)

Session 5C

Other Topics on Climate Variability And Change I

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Douglas Nedza; Kai Huang; Ivan Mitevski; Wenchang Yang, Princeton University

8:30 AM

5C.1

The End of the Southeastern United States "Warming Hole"

Pamela Naber Knox, University of Georgia, Watkinsville, GA

8:45 AM

5C.2

Examining Extreme Precipitation Events within the Mississippi River Basin with an Eye Toward Climate Change

Irenea de Lima Corporal-Lodangco, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. A. McPherson

9:00 AM

5C.3

Projected changes in cut-off lows and their implications for North American extreme precipitation events

Henri Rossi Pinheiro, University of Sao Paulo (Brazil), Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil; and T. Ambrizzi

Manuscript (102.0 kB)

9:15 AM

5C.4

Comparing Temperature and Humidity Trends in Two Water-Stressed Mountain Environments with Embedded Sensor Networks

Emily Mazan, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and B. G. Mark, R. Å. Hellström, E. I. Mateo, and E. N. Sambuco

9:30 AM

5C.5

Evaluation of Severe Local Storm Environments in Australia Using the Lapse Rate Tendency Equation

Alan Garcia Rosales, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and J. T. Allen

9:45 AM

5C.6

Increased Impacts of ENSO on the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon under Global Warming and Associated Mechanisms

Shuheng Lin, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China; and S. Yang and B. Dong

J5A

Extreme Precipitation I

Location: 318/319 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chairs: Kelly M. Mahoney; John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University

Cochairs: Kenneth E. Kunkel, NCEI; Sarah M. Trojniak, NOAA

8:30 AM

J5A.1

Climate Informed NOAA Precipitation Frequency Atlas of the United States (Invited)

SANDRA PAVLOVIC, NWS, Tuscaloosa, AL; NWS, Tuscaloosa, AL; and F. Salas, F. L. Ogden, E. P. Clark, M. St. Laurent, C. Trypaluk, D. Unruh, A. Jordan, and R. S. S. Mantripragada

8:45 AM

J5A.2

NOAA Atlas 15: Updated Extreme Precipitation-Frequency Estimation Methodology in a Non-Stationary Climate

Debbie Martin, RTI International, Broomfield, CO

9:00 AM

J5A.3

Scientific Challenges for NOAA Atlas 15 Projections of Heavy Rainfall Design Values

Kenneth E. Kunkel, North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC

9:15 AM

J5A.4

Assessing the Value of Higher-Frequency Modeled Precipitation Data for Quantifying Risk from Changes in Extreme Precipitation

Tanya Spero, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and A. M. Jalowska, G. Gray, J. H. Bowden, M. S. Mallard, J. Willison, and G. E. Tierney

9:30 AM

J5A.5

A Comparison of Downscaling Methods to Create Future Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Resilient Transportation within North Carolina

Jared H. Bowden, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. E. Kunkel, G. M. Lackmann, K. Dello, K. E. Hollinger, A. M. Sinning, T. Spero, A. M. Jalowska, G. M. E. Gray, M. S. Mallard, and M. Lauffer

9:45 AM

J5A.6

Detection and Estimation of Extreme, Short-Duration, Small-Area Rainfall

James Anderson Smith, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and M. L. Baeck, A. V. Ryzhkov, and J. Hu

J5B

Land-Atmosphere and Land-Ocean Interactions I

Location: 340 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Yongkang Xue

Cochairs: Randal D. Koster, NASA; Michael B. Ek, NCAR

8:30 AM

J5B.1

The SMOPS Blended Soil Moisture Climate Data Record

Jifu Yin, NOAA, College Park, MD; and X. Zhan, J. Liu, H. Meng, and R. Ferraro

8:45 AM

J5B.2

A strong role of shallow soil moisture in land-atmosphere coupling

Andrew Feldman, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD; University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and T. R. Holmes, K. A. Cawse-Nicholson, R. D. Koster, W. T. Crow, and B. Poulter

9:00 AM

J5B.3

Thermodynamic constraints on the sensitivity of boundary layer clouds to land surface flux partitioning

Paul A. Dirmeyer, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and F. M. Hay-Chapman, J. Simon, and N. Chaney

Handout (2.3 MB)

9:15 AM

J5B.4

Evaluating Land-Atmosphere processes in a developmental version of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) coupled to a National Water Model (NWM) configuration of WRF-Hydro during warm season convective events

Jason M. English, CIRES/NOAA GSL, Boulder, CO; and D. Rosen, D. J. Gochis, A. R. Siems-Anderson, T. T. Ladwig, R. Cabell, and C. R. Alexander

9:30 AM

J5B.5

Land Atmosphere Coupling Strength and its Impact on Precipitation during North American Summer

Madhusmita Swain, University at Albany, Albany, NY; SUNY Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson and D. Fitzjarrald

9:45 AM

J5B.6

Hydrometeorological Drivers of Summertime Temperature Variability Over Western US Land Surfaces

Lily Zhang, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. R. Vargas Zeppetello and D. S. Battisti

Coffee Break [Main Terrace (BCC), Camden Lobby (BCC), Hall E (BCC), Hall F (BCC)]

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Lunch Break

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 7A

Heat Waves: Mechanisms, Predictability, Prediction and Impacts II

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Dan Li, Boston University; Wassila Mamadou Thiaw, University of Colorado, Boulder

1:45 PM

7A.1

A Climatology of North American Heat Waves: Patterns and Processes

Lauren Getker, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann, J. T. Radford, and W. A. Robinson

2:00 PM

7A.2

A Physical Analysis of Summertime North American Heatwaves

Bin Yu, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and H. Lin, R. Mo, and G. Li

2:15 PM

7A.3

Dynamical and Thermodynamic Aspects of Long Duration Heat Extremes over the U.S. in Current and Warmer Climates

Veeshan T Narinesingh, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and J. P. Clark, B. Garcia Nueva, and D. Paynter

2:30 PM

7A.4

Exploring Projected Changes in Heat Index Across the U.S. Using Dynamically Downscaled Projections

Tanya Spero, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and G. E. Tierney, J. Willison, M. S. Mallard, J. H. Bowden, and C. Nolte

2:45 PM

7A.5

On the Extratropical Influence of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Heat Extremes over Northwestern North America

SANDRO W. LUBIS, PNNL, Richland, WA; and Z. Chen, J. Lu, S. M. Hagos, and L. R. Leung

Session 7B

El Niño Southern Oscillation: Dynamics, Predictions and Projections I

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/PSL; Emily J. Becker, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University; Arthur J. Miller, Univ. of California San Diego

1:45 PM

7B.1

Reconstructing the Tropical Pacific ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Field

Mark A. Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia Unversity, Palisades, NY; and E. R. Cook

2:00 PM

7B.2

Learning ENSO Dynamics From Data

Prashant D Sardeshmukh, CIRES University of Colorado and PSL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and C. Penland and G. P. Compo

7B.3

Impacts of precipitation anomaly on the ENSO development

2:30 PM

7B.4

MJO-Induced Warm Pool Eastward Extension and Onset of the 2023 El Niño

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and Y. Jauregui

2:45 PM

7B.5

Ocean Dynamic Persistence Provides Substantial Predictability for El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Tong Lee, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and O. Wang

Session 7C

Other Topics on Climate Variability and Change II

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Douglas Nedza; Kai Huang; Ivan Mitevski; Wenchang Yang, Princeton University

1:45 PM

7C.1

Communicating Climate Change in the Media

Lisa K. Meadows, CBS Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN

Handout (1.5 MB)

2:00 PM

7C.2

Water Mass Transformation Induced by Tropical Cyclones

Samantha Faye Donner, NOAA, Fair Lawn, NJ

2:15 PM

7C.3

Extreme Events over Historical and Future Projected Periods within a Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6 GCM

Megan S. Mallard, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and J. Willison, T. Spero, J. H. Bowden, C. Nolte, A. M. Jalowska, G. Gray, and G. E. Tierney

2:30 PM

7C.4

The Challenge of Ensemble Subset Selection for Climate Change Impacts Assessments

Adrienne Wootten, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. Massoud and C. Raymond

2:45 PM

7C.5

Asymmetry of Day-to-Day Temperature Difference: Climatology and Mechanisms

Radan Huth, Charles Univ., Faculty of Science, Prague, Czech republic; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic; and J. Stryhal, T. Krauskopf, D. Navrátilová, and M. Kašpar

J7B

Land-Atmosphere and Land-Ocean Interactions II

Location: 340 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Yongkang Xue

Cochairs: Randal D. Koster, NASA; Michael B. Ek, NCAR; Craig R. Ferguson, SUNY University at Albany, NY

1:45 PM

J7B.1

Enhancing Noah-MP model representation of fire impacts on land surface conditions

Cenlin He, NSF NCAR, Boulder, CO; NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Abolafia-Rosenzweig, F. Chen, A. Dugger, and D. J. Gochis

2:00 PM

J7B.2

Effect of Urbanization on the Hydroclimate and Deep Convection in the Southern Great Plain and Northeastern US

Xin Zhou, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and F. Letson, P. Crippa, M. Bukovsky, and S. C. Pryor

2:15 PM

J7B.3

Expansion or shrinking of Sahara Desert and frozen lands in the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau

Yongkang Xue, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and Y. Liu

2:30 PM

J7B.4

Comparing Mechanistic Patterns of Terrestrial Hydroclimatic Change in Global Models and Reanalysis Data

Kirsten L. Findell, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. Duan and S. Fueglistaler

2:45 PM

J7B.5

Subgrid surface heterogeneity and land-atmosphere interactions: a hierarchy of parameterizations for global climate models

Finley Miles Hay-Chapman, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer, M. D. Fowler, T. Waterman, and N. Chaney

Handout (2.5 MB)

37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change ePosters (Tuesday)

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

E33

On the Physical Origin of the Semiannual Component of Surface Air Temperature over Oceans

Fucheng Yang, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

E34

On the Accordance of Atmospheric Reanalyses in the Synoptic-Scale Circulation– A Global Perspective

Jan Stryhal, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, 104, Czech republic; Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; and R. Huth and J. A. Fernandez-Granja

E35

Sub-Seasonal Variability of ENSO Teleconnections in Western North America and Its Prediction Skill

Chang-Hyun Park, Seoul National University, Seoul, South korea; and J. Choi, S. W. Son, D. Kim, S. W. Yeh, and J. S. Kug

Coffee Break & Formal Poster Viewing [Hall E (BCC) & Hall F (BCC)]

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Extreme Precipitation I - Posters

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Kelly M. Mahoney

Cochairs: Kenneth E. Kunkel, NCEI; John W. Nielsen-Gammon; Sarah M. Trojniak, NOAA

289

Understanding New England Riverine Flooding: A Hydroclimatic Perspective

Lindsay Lawrence, Northeastern University, Nahant, MA

290

An Analysis of Excessive Rainfall Events and Suwannee River Streamflow Response

Nicole Casamassina Rockwell, NWS, Peachtree City, GA

291

A High-Resolution Numerical Simulation of the "7.19" Extraordinary Heavy Rainfall in Henan Province Under Topographic Effect

Han Li, Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Zhengzhou, China

292

Influences of Large-scale and Meso-scale Circulation Patterns on Warm Season Precipitation in South China

Wenbin Chen, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 32, China; Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and H. Yuan

293

Analyzing the Performance of Different Parameter Settings with the Ensemble Nowcasting of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation

Steven Rearden, NWC REU, Norman, OK; and S. M. Martinaitis, J. Anthony, and D. Meyer

Handout (1.2 MB)

294

Multi-storm analysis of satellite precipitation informed streamflow for landfalling tropical cyclones.

Alka Tiwari, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and K. A. Cherkauer, W. W. Tung, F. D. Marks Jr., ScD, and D. Niyogi

295

A multi-radar perspective on the stratiform precipitation region of landfalling hurricane Ian (2022)

Aimee Dixon, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. S. BRAUER and P. Kirstetter

Handout (4.5 MB)

296

High resolution precipitation forecast using WRF model during super storm Ida over the New York City metropolitan area

Jorge Humberto Bravo Mendez, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ; and M. Temimi and M. Abdelkader

Land-Atmosphere and Land-Ocean Interactions - Posters

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Yongkang Xue

Cochairs: Randal D. Koster, NASA; Michael B. Ek, NCAR; Craig R. Ferguson, SUNY University at Albany, NY

297

Riding the Waves of Climate Change: Unveiling the Connection Between Rising Sea Levels and Precipitation

Chandler Michael Pruett, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; NASA, Hampton, VA

298

INFERRING SURFACE FLUX PARTITIONING OVER LAND FROM AN EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER

Briah Davis, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer

299

Analysis of the SMAP Daily Soil Moisture Time Series through Power Spectrum-Adjustment Method Utilizing Additional Datasets

Nazanin Tavakoli, GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer

Manuscript (50.9 kB)

Handout (3.0 MB)

300

Land-Atmosphere Coupling Simulation and Its Role in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction

Yuna Lim, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Riverdale, MD; GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Molod, R. D. Koster, and J. A. Santanello Jr.

301

Soil Moisture-Latent Heat Flux Coupling in Climate Modeling: Insights and Implications from the Offline Land Model

Daisuke Tokuda, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer

302

Principle Component Analysis as a Tool for Detection of Land-Atmosphere Freeback Regimes Using Flux Site Observations

Sungyoon Kim, COLA, Fiarfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer

Manuscript (143.2 kB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

303

Trends in Satellite-Derived Vegetation Roughness Length for Momentum over the Conterminous U.S.

Jordan S. Borak, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD; and M. F. Jasinski, ScD and N. Tangdamrongsub

304

Climate Model Biases in Rain-on-Snow Days Across the Central United States

Ross D. Dixon, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and T. Roy and Z. Suriano

305

The Response of Precipitation to Initial Soil Moisture over the Tibetan Plateau: Respective Effects of Boundary Layer Vertical Heat and Vapor Diffusions

Feimin Zhang, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 62, China; and C. Wang and L. Zhao

Manuscript (15.9 kB)

Handout (4.4 MB)

306

Describing the Structure and Evolution of the Entrainment Zone Throughout the Morning and Evening Transitions Using LES

Tessa Elaine Rosenberger, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, OH; Cleveland State University, Cleveland, OH; and T. Heus, D. D. Turner, T. J. Wagner, S. He, and J. M. Simonson

Poster Session 2 - 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Esther D. Mullens, University of Florida; Ivan Mitevski

307

Model-analog Forecasts of ENSO: Evaluation Against Assimilation-Initialized Forecasts from GFDL SPEAR

Fanrong Zeng, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and A. T. Wittenberg

308

Identifying Precursors of El Niño False Alarms

Emily Faith Wisinski, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. J. Molina and M. L. L'Heureux

309

Solar Irradiance Modulates the ENSO- Asian Summer Monsoon Teleconnection over the Past Millennium

Xiaojing Du, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and S. Dee, J. Hu, and K. Thirumalai

311

Geomagnetic Storm Impacts on the Lower Atmosphere: Connections Between the Hale Cycle, Ap, Kp and ENSO

Robert J. Leamon, Univ. of Maryland - Baltimore County, Washington, DC

310

Precipitation Variability and Predictability over Central Southwest Asia and Southern Africa During Boreal Winter

312

Projected Changes in ENSO influence on Summer Monsoon Regional Precipitation in CMIP6 Simulation

Sakshi Labhane, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik

313

Trends in Intraseasonal Temperature Variability in Europe: Comparison of Station Data with Gridded Data and Reanalyses

Tomáš Krauskopf, Charles University, Faculty of Science, Prague 2, Czech Republic; and R. Huth

314

Examination of Relationship Between Direct Solar Irradiance and Measured Surface Air Temperature

Ana Zaknic-Catovic P.Ge, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON, Canada; and W. A. Gough and Z. Catovic

Handout (2.3 MB)

315

Quantifying Contributions of Ozone Changes to Global and Arctic Warming during the Second Half of the 20^th Century

Qigang Wu, Fudan Univ., Shanghai, China; and Y. Hu, A. Hu, and S. Schroeder

316

The Role of Topography in Shaping Southeast US Winter Precipitation

Benjamin O Johnson, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth

317

Evaluating the Relationship Between Extratropical Cyclone Tracks and Teleconnection Patterns to Improve Laurentian Great Lakes Water Level Modeling

Jamie Ward, CIGLR, Ann Arbor, MI; and B. Mroczka, D. M. Wright, PhD, Y. Hong, and L. Fry

318

Classification of Tropics Based on the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of the Intertropical Convergence Zone from a Complex Networks Perspective

Gaurav Chopra, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India; Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India; and V. R. Unni, P. Venkateshan, S. M. Vallejo-Bernal, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, and R. I. Sujith

319

Indication of a Possible Self-Regulation of Northern Hemisphere Mid-Tropospheric Temperatures and Its Connection to Upper-Level Winds in Reanalyses and Earth System Models

Michael A. Brunke, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. A. Pielke Sr. and X. Zeng

320

Assessing Observed Changes of Poleward Energy Transport for Northern Hemisphere Winter Extratropical Cyclones: Eulerian and Lagrangian Approaches

Austin Thomas Reed, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA

321

Phase Relation between Diurnal cycle of CAPE, CINE and Rainfall

THANANGKA CHUTIA, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, BANGALORE, KA, India; and A. Chakraborty and G. S. Bhat

322

How Skillful are the CMIP6 Models in Capturing Severe Thunderstorm Environments Over the United States?

Deepak Gopalakrishnan, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and C. Cuervo-Lopez, J. T. Allen, R. J. Trapp, and E. Robinson

8A

Extreme Precipitation II

Location: 318/319 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chairs: Kelly M. Mahoney; Sarah M. Trojniak, NOAA

Cochairs: Kenneth E. Kunkel, NCEI; John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University

4:30 PM

8A.1

An Overview of the Dynamical Processes and Thermodynamic Drivers that Contributed to the Onset of Highly Impactful Heavy Rains in California during Winter 2022–2023

Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and T. C. Leicht and A. K. Mitchell

4:45 PM

8A.2

The Extraordinary Period of Atmospheric River Activity During December 2022 – January 2023 in California: Impacts and Climatological Perspectives

Christopher Castellano, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and S. M. Bartlett, J. M. Cordeira, K. Guirguis, C. W. Hecht, T. Y. HSU, J. F. Kalansky, B. Kawzenuk, D. L. Nash, J. J. Rutz, Z. Zhang, and X. Zou

5:00 PM

8A.3

Diagnosing Rainfall Variability Within A Series of Atmospheric Rivers over Northern California in February 2017

Parker Malek, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and P. C. Loikith

5:15 PM

8A.4

Atmospheric River Analysis and Forecast System (AR-AFS): Improving Forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers on the US West Coast

Keqin Wu, EMC, College Park, MD; and X. Wu, V. S. Tallapragada, and M. M. Ralph

5:30 PM

8A.5

Using an Ensemble Prediction System to Evaluate the Factors Influencing the Stationary Behavior of a Landfalling Atmospheric River over Central California

Ivan Leonel Fontanez, SUNY, Aguas Buenas, PR; Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

5:45 PM

8A.6

Updating Probable Maximum Precipitation Procedures for Oregon

David Curtis, WEST Consultants, Folsom, CA; and L. Cunha, C. Yu, B. Choat, J. M. Cordeira, S. M. Bartlett, K. Mills, and T. Janicek

Session 8A

Heat Waves: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction III

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

CoChair: Dan Li, Boston University

4:30 PM

8A.1

Impact of Changes in Temperature Variability on Changes in Extreme Warm Spells and Heatwaves

Prashant D Sardeshmukh, CIRES University of Colorado and PSL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, C. Penland, and C. McColl

4:45 PM

8A.2

Comparing the Causes and Unusualness of the Texas Heatwaves in 2022 and 2023

Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and J. Barsugli, D. A. Coates, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, Z. M. Labe, PhD, J. E. Uehling, R. Vose, and X. Zhang

Handout (3.2 MB)

5:00 PM

8A.3

An Energetics Tale of the 2022 Mega-Heatwave over Central-Eastern China

Tuantuan Zhang, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China

5:15 PM

8A.4

Characteristics and Predictability of the December 2021 Extreme Winter Warm Spell in the Southern Great Plains of the United States

Taylor Morgan Grace, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. B. Basara and K. Pegion

5:30 PM

8A.5

Contribution of Changes in Temperature Mean, Variability and Persistence to Heat Wave Occurrence in Urban Environments

Dan Li, Boston University, Boston, MA; and W. Liao and L. Wang

5:45 PM

8A.6

Oceanic Mesoscale Eddies as Crucial Drivers of Global Marine Heatwaves

Ce Bian, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 37, China; and L. Wu and Z. Jing

Session 8B

El Niño Southern Oscillation: Dynamics, Predictions and Projections II

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/PSL; Emily J. Becker, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University; Arthur J. Miller

4:30 PM

8B.1

Identifying State-Dependent Precursors to Improve ENSO Forecasting Using a Hybrid Model-Analog and Deep Learning Approach

Kinya Toride, NOAA, Boulder, CO; Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman, A. Capotondi, J. Schloer, D. J. Amaya, and A. J. Hoell

4:45 PM

8B.2

Year 2 ENSO Predictability is Highly State Dependent

Nathan Lenssen, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO; and P. DiNezio, L. Goddard, C. Deser, Y. Kushnir, S. Mason, M. Newman, and Y. Okumura

5:00 PM

8B.3

Understanding Precipitation Variation with ENSO from a General Circulation Perspective

Pin-Chun Huang, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. Lee

5:15 PM

8B.4

Interference of ENSO on North American Precipitation Associated with Aleutian Low/PNA Variability

Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. Okumura, K. Bellomo, and M. Breeden

5:30 PM

8B.5

Changes to Middle East and Southwest Asia Compound Drought and Heat Since 1999

Andrew J. Hoell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. Agel, M. Robinson, M. Barlow, M. Breeden, J. Eischeid, A. McNally, K. Slinski, and X. W. Quan

5:45 PM

8B.6

The Asymmetric Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Modulation on Daily Temperature Variability over North America

Michael L Brown, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Larson and E. J. Becker

Session 8C

Other Topics on Climate Variability And Change III

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Douglas Nedza; Kai Huang; Ivan Mitevski; Wenchang Yang, Princeton University

4:30 PM

8C.1

On the Co-Variations of Temperature and Humidity Above the Tropical Convective Boundary Layer across Multiple Timescale

Xianglei Huang, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and X. Chen, Z. Wei, N. G. Loeb, S. Kato, M. G. Bosilovich, K. Suzuki, and D. Goto

4:45 PM

8C.2

Impact of the AR6 Updates to the Assessment of Effective Radiative Forcing on the Projections of Reduced Complexity Climate Models

Endre Zoltan Farago, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, MD; and L. McBride, R. J. Salawitch, T. P. Canty, and B. Bennett

5:00 PM

8C.3

Why is Hydrological Sensitivity Larger in AMIP Uniform Warming Experiments than in CMIP Experiments?

Wenchang Yang, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and C. Wang, B. Zhang, and G. A. Vecchi

5:15 PM

8C.4

Quantifying the Response of the North Atlantic Oscillation to a Wide Range of CO₂ Forcing

Ivan Mitevski, Columbia University, New York, NY; and S. H. Lee, G. A. Vecchi, C. Orbe, and L. M. Polvani

8C.5

Arctic Hysteresis Under a Moderate Climate Overshoot

J8

Statistics and Machine Learning for Climate Science

Location: 302/303 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science )

Cochairs: Julia Velletta; Vanderlei Vargas Jr. Jr.

4:30 PM

J8.1

The Climate Change Deniers are Wrong: Evidence from NOAA's Barrow Atmospheric Observatory in Alaska

Kevin F Forbes, Energy and Environmental Data Science, Malahide, D, Ireland

4:45 PM

J8.2

Prediction of Tropical Pacific Rain Rates with Over-parameterized Neural Networks

Hojun You, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and M. Jun, R. Saravanan, C. J. Schumacher, J. Wang, and R. Wong

5:00 PM

J8.3

Subseasonal-to-Decadal Analog Forecasting Using Spatially-Weighted Masks Learned By a Neural Network

Jamin K. Rader, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, M. Fernandez, and J. Landsberg

5:15 PM

J8.4

A Stochastic Statistical Model for U.S. Outbreak-Level Tornado Occurrence Based on the Large-Scale Environment

Kelsey M. Malloy, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and M. K. Tippett

5:30 PM

J8.5

Building Asymmetry into PCA and Application to ENSO

Erik T. Swenson, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA

5:45 PM

J8.6

Constraining the Simulated Radiative Effects of Biomass Burning in Southern Africa

Victor Alejandro Sanchez, Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA; Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA; and J. Carzon, M. Kuusela, and H. Gordon

J8B

Land-Atmosphere and Land-Ocean Interactions III

Location: 340 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Yongkang Xue

Cochairs: Randal D. Koster, NASA; Michael B. Ek, NCAR; Craig R. Ferguson, SUNY University at Albany, NY

4:30 PM

J8B.1

Key Underlying Dynamics of Ocean-Land-Air Interactions during the Landfall of TS Bill (2015)

Jinwoong Yoo, Univ. of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD; NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. A. Santanello Jr.

4:45 PM

J8B.2

Sensitivity of Weather Forecasts to Soil Moisture Perturbations in Coastal Regions

Kevin A. Biernat, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Finocchio and J. D. Doyle

5:00 PM

J8B.3

Modifying a Land Surface Model to Improve the Subseasonal Forecasting of Hydrological Variables

Randal D. Koster, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and Y. Lim, Y. Zeng, E. Lee, Q. Liu, S. Schubert, and A. Molod

5:15 PM

J8B.4

Identifying the Mechanism of Interaction Between Soil Moisture State and Summertime MCS Initiations in Weakly-Forced Synoptic Environments Using Convective-Permitting Simulations

Rachel Gaal, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and J. L. Kinter, P. A. Dirmeyer, and B. Singh

5:30 PM

J8B.5

Using WRF Simulations to Analyze Processes Linking Soil Moisture Paradigms and Convective Initiation in the Central and Southern Great Plains of the United States

Joshua Caleb Steiner, The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and T. W. Ford and S. M. Quiring

5:45 PM

J8B.6

Assessing the Sensitivity of Atmospheric Convective Updrafts to Subgrid Land Surface Heterogeneity in CESM2

Meg Devlan Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Herrington, R. B. Neale, T. Waterman, D. M. Lawrence, F. M. Hay-Chapman, P. A. Dirmeyer, J. T. Bacmeister, and N. Chaney

Exhibit Hall Reception

Location: Hall F/ Swing (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 9A

Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective I

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise )

Cochairs: Andrew J. Hoell, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory; Stephanie C. Herring, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI); Peter Stott, Met Office Hadley Centre

8:30 AM

9A.1

Global Human Fingerprints on Daily Temperatures in 2023

Daniel M. Gilford, PhD, Climate Central, Inc., Princeton, NJ; and A. Pershing, J. Giguere, F. Otto, L. Casey, and M. Fleury

8:50 AM

9A.2

Developing a Climate Conditioned View of Atlantic Hurricane Risk

Peter S. Dailey, Aeolus Capital Management Ltd., Las Vegas, NV; and F. Fischer

9:10 AM

9A.3

The Role of Long-Term Trend and Internal Variability in Altering Fire Weather Conditions in the Contiguous United States

Jiale Lou, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and Y. Joh and T. L. Delworth

9:30 AM

9A.4

The Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Temperature Events in Central America and Northern South America: A Case Study of an Inter-Andean Valley

Juan Diego Mantilla, SIATA, Medellín, Colombia; and I. C. Correa Sánchez, J. Benjumea Garcés, and J. Sepúlveda

9:45 AM

9A.5

Recent Extreme Dust Storms in Central Asia Associated with Cold Air Outbreak and Drought

Xin Xi, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI; and D. Steinfeld, S. Cavallo, J. Wang, J. Chen, and G. Henebry

Session 9B

Winter Weather in a Warming World I

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Presidential Conference )

Cochairs: Esther D. Mullens, University of Florida; Jason C. Furtado

8:30 AM

9B.1

Strong Stratospheric Wave Events Precede North American Cold Extremes (Invited Presentation)

Xiuyuan Ding, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and G. Chen

8:45 AM

9B.2

Sunshine to Shivers: The Characteristics and Evolution of Wintertime Temperature Whiplash in the Southern Plains

Katie Giannakopoulos, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Furtado

9:00 AM

9B.3

Changes in Winter Temperatures, Chilling Hours, and Projected Impacts to Tree Fruit in the Midwest United States

Trent Ford, Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL; and L. Chen, E. Wahle, D. Todey, and L. Nowatzke

9:15 AM

9B.4

Future Changes in U.S. Extratropical Cyclones and their Associated Mean and Extreme Precipitation, Snowfall, and Surface Winds.

Rachel R. McCrary, NCAR, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Bukovsky, L. Kessenich, C. M. Zarzycki, and S. McGinnis

9:30 AM

9B.5

Investigating the Occurrence of Blizzard Events over the Contiguous United States Using Observations and Climate Projections

Liang Chen, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and A. Browne and T. S. Kauzlarich

9:45 AM

9B.6

Future Extreme Winter Windstorms in the Northeastern US: A Storyline-Based Pseudo-Global Warming Approach

Xin Zhou, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and R. J. Barthelmie, J. J. Coburn, F. Letson, and S. C. Pryor

Session 9C

Frontiers in Earth System Modeling

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Youngji Joh; Zachary Michael Labe, PhD, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

8:30 AM

9C.1

Frontier Earth System Modeling for Next-generation U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections

Annarita Mariotti, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Bader, S. Bauer, G. Danabasoglu, J. Dunne, B. D. Gross, L. R. Leung, S. Pawson, W. Putman, V. Ramaswamy, G. A. Schmidt, and V. S. Tallapragada

8:45 AM

9C.2

Evaluation of a Novel High-Resolution Climate-Scale Simulation using the Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS-A)

Allison C. Michaelis, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and J. DiGilio, L. Getker, F. Cannon, C. A. Davis, R. D. Torn, D. F. Steinhoff, L. Delle Monache, G. M. Lackmann, W. A. Robinson, B. Guan, and M. M. Ralph

9:00 AM

9C.3

Years-long Global Storm Resolving Model Simulations in GFDL X-SHiELD

Lucas M. Harris, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and K. Y. Cheng, L. Zhou, and S. Clark

9:15 AM

9C.4

Impacts of Clouds and Convectively Induced Atmospheric Heterogeneities on the Surface Energy Balance in the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model

Seth Colston, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and I. N. Williams

9:30 AM

9C.5

Momentum Transport in Boundary-Layer Wind Climate Simulations and Its Parametrization By the Higher-Order Closure Scheme Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB): Challenges and Opportunities

Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. Zhao, V. E. Larson, and C. M. Zarzycki

9:45 AM

9C.6

The Navy Earth System Prediction Capability: Overview and Future Developments

Matthew A. Janiga, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Allard, C. Barron, W. Crawford, M. Flatau, D. Herbert, G. Jacobs, T. Jensen, D. D. Kuhl, R. Linzell, F. Liu, J. McLay, E. J. Metzger, C. A. Reynolds, J. Ridout, E. Rogers, C. Rowley, J. Shriver, O. M. Smedstad, P. Thoppil, T. Townsend, and T. Whitcomb

J9B

Extreme Precipitation III

Location: 340 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chairs: Kenneth E. Kunkel, NCEI; John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University

Cochairs: Kelly M. Mahoney; Sarah M. Trojniak, NOAA

8:30 AM

J9B.1

The NOAA Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge: Strategy and Ongoing Activities to Improve Predictions of Extreme Rainfall

David R. Novak, NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD

8:45 AM

J9B.2

Investigation of Ensemble-Based Nowcasting for Predicting Excessive Rainfall within the MRMS System

Steven M. Martinaitis, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO) and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Anthony, D. Meyer, and S. Rearden

9:00 AM

J9B.3

Hatched: The struggle of communicating Intensity with the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook

James Correia Jr., CIRES, Boulder, CO; NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and S. M. Trojniak, W. M. Bartolini, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

9:15 AM

J9B.4

Using Average Recurrence Intervals to Identify Intensity Risk in the Day 1 Time-period

Sarah Marie Trojniak, CIRES-CIESRDS @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and J. Correia Jr., W. M. Bartolini, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

9:30 AM

J9B.5

Analysis of HREF Summertime Extreme precipitation forecasts over three years

Janice L. Bytheway, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and D. R. Stovern, K. M. Mahoney, S. M. Trojniak, and J. Correia Jr.

9:45 AM

J9B.6

A Climatology of Qualitative Precipitation Forecast Errors for Mesoscale Convective Systems in the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast

Anna Carolyn Duhachek, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and K. J. Franz

Coffee Break [Main Terrace (BCC), Camden Lobby (BCC), Hall E (BCC), Hall F (BCC)]

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 10A

Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective II

Location: 315 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate )

Cochairs: Andrew J. Hoell, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory; Stephanie C. Herring, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI); Peter Stott, Met Office Hadley Centre

10:45 AM

10A.1

Features and Drivers Of Global Marine Heatwaves In A Warming World

Ce Bian, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 37, China; Ocean Univ. of China, Qing Dao, China; and L. Wu and Z. Jing

11:00 AM

10A.2

Drought Properties in Mediterranean Under Climate Change Scenarios

Yassmin H. Essa, Goethe University Frankfurt (GUF), Frankfurt, Germany; National Research Council of Italy - Institute of Marine Sciences, Rome, Italy; and M. Hirschi, W. Thiery, A. El-Kenawy, and C. Yang

11:15 AM

10A.3

Projected Future Changes in Bomb Cyclones by the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA Multimodel Ensemble

Jiaxiang Gao, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 32, China; Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan; and S. minobe, M. J. Roberts, R. Haarsma, D. Putrasahan, E. Scoccimarro, L. Terray, and P. L. Vidale

11:30 AM

10A.4

The Unprecedented Heatwave in Mexico and Texas during June 2023: Character, Context, and Physical Drivers

Dmitri Alexander Kalashnikov, Washington State University Vancouver, Vancouver, WA; and D. Singh

11:45 AM

10A.5

Historical and Future Windstorms Affecting the Northeast US: Their Impacts and Origins

Fred Letson, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and J. J. Coburn, X. Zhou, M. Bukovsky, R. J. Barthelmie, and S. C. Pryor

Session 10A

Extreme Maritime Weather - Met-Ocean Science, Observations, and Services to Enhance Decision Making II

Location: Holiday 5 (Hilton Baltimore Inner Harbor)

Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, Ocean Prediction Center

Cochairs: Renee (Richardson) Keller; Cheyenne Danielle Stienbarger; Pam Emch, PhD, Emch & Associates Consulting

Panelists: Martha Schonau; Briana Kay Muhlestein; Mark A. Bourassa, Florida State University

10:45 AM

10A.1

S-41X Further Developments

Thomas Cervone-Richards, NOAA, Riverdale, MD; and J. M. Sienkiewicz

11:00 AM

10A.2

A Lagrangian drifter array for targeted and sustained ocean observations of extreme waves and winds

Martha Schonau, SIO, La Jolla, CA; Scripps Instititue of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA; and T. Paluszkiewicz and L. Centurioni

11:15 AM

Panel Discussion

Session 10B

Winter Weather in a Warming World II

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Esther D. Mullens, University of Florida; Jason C. Furtado

10:45 AM

10B.1

Projected Changes to Extreme Freezing Rain Events over Northeastern North America

Christopher D. McCray, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada; and F. Dion-Ladouceur and É. Bresson

11:00 AM

10B.2

Diagnosing Mid-Atlantic Icing Events and their Projected Changes in Earth System Models using Self-Organizing Maps

Michelle Gore, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. M. Zarzycki and M. Gervais

11:15 AM

10B.3

Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Freezing Rain over Eastern North America

Austin Ray Britton, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and E. D. Mullens and D. Vemireddy

11:30 AM

10B.4

Long-term Trend and Variability of Rain on Snow and Weather Extremes on Mount Washington

Myah Rather, NCAS-M, NW, DC; and H. Pearson

11:45 AM

10B.5

Central United States Snowfall: Variability, Trends, and Large-scale Forcings

Zachary Suriano, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY; and G. Goodrich and C. Loewy

Session 10C

Land Use and Land Cover Change - Interactions with Weather and Climate I

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Bradford Johnson, Florida State University; Marcus D. Williams

10:45 AM

10C.1

Evidence of Urban Weather Modification in a Mid-Sized Urban Area – a Climatological Analysis of Augusta,Georgia

J. Marshall Shepherd, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and J. T. McLeod and M. Appelbaum

11:00 AM

10C.2

Indirect Biophysical Effect of Global Urban Land Expansion on the Surface Climate

Keer Zhang, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and B. Fang, K. Oleson, L. Zhao, C. He, Q. Huang, Z. Liu, C. Cao, and X. Lee

11:15 AM

10C.3

Quantifying the Impacts of an Urban Area on Clouds and Precipitation Patterns in Downwind Regions: A Modeling Perspective

Giacomo Moraglia, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN; Univ. of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN; and P. Crippa, S. C. Pryor, and X. Zhou

11:30 AM

10C.4

Estimating the Effects of Vegetation Change on Carbon Sequestration and the Relative Impacts of Albedo in the Mid-Atlantic USA

Vikrant Sapkota, The Pennsylvania State Univ., STATE COLLEGE, PA; and C. E. Forest and J. D. Fuentes

11:45 AM

10C.5

Characterizing Patterns of Cropland Change in Regions with Changing Climates

Jennifer Kennedy, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and G. C. Hurtt and X. Z. Liang

Lunch Break

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 11A

Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective III

Location: Ballroom II (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Andrew J. Hoell, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory; Stephanie C. Herring, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI); Peter Stott, Met Office Hadley Centre

1:45 PM

11A.1

Why Record-Breaking Extreme Precipitation events tend to occur over Land than Ocean under Global Warming?

William K.M. Lau, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), College Park, MD; ESSIC, College Park, MD; and K. M. kim, B. Harrop, and L. R. Leung

Introductory Remarks

2:00 PM

11A.2

Variability and Trends in Tropical Precipitation Derived from Satellite-Based Precipitation and Comparison with Climate Model Outputs

Guojun Gu, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. F. Adler

2:15 PM

11A.3

Quasiresonant Rossby Wave Amplification Theory Fails a General Circulation Model Test

Marianna Linz, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and T. Mooring

2:30 PM

11A.4

Diverse Impacts of Global Warming on Derechos in the United States

Jianfeng Li, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung, P. Ullrich, Z. Feng, J. Fan, Y. Qian, and C. R. Homeyer

2:45 PM

11A.5

Changes in Mesoscale Convective System Precipitation Structures in Response to a Warming Climate

Wenjun Cui, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, Norman, OK; and T. J. Galarneau and K. A. Hoogewind

Session 11C

Land Use and Land Cover Change - Interactions with Weather and Climate II

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Marcus D. Williams; Bradford Johnson, Florida State University

1:45 PM

11C.1

Extreme Precipitation Trend in Multiple Urban Systems

Fei Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; National Center for Atmospheric Research - Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and C. He, Q. V. Q. Doan, D. Niyogi, and L. Di

2:00 PM

11C.2

Identification of Intraurban Summer Precipitation Hotspots

Bradford Johnson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

2:15 PM

11C.3

Extreme Rainfall Variations in Response to Urban Land Use/Cover: A High Spatial-Temporal Resolution Radar Data-Based Evidence

Junaid Ahmad, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX; and M. Sajjad and J. Eisma

2:30 PM

11C.4

Identifying and Attributing Changes in the Ratio of Locally and Synoptically Forced Midlatitude Precipitation Events

Nabindra Gyawali, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson and L. F. Bosart

2:45 PM

11C.5

The Influence of Landcover Parameterization Schemes on WRF Simulations of Neighborhood-Scale Heat Stress in Baltimore, Maryland

William E. Foust, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and K. J. Davis, D. W. Waugh, and B. F. Zaitchik

J11B

Atmospheric Rivers: Processes, Impacts, and Communicating Uncertainty I

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation )

Cochairs: Allison Collow, Florida State University; Christine A. Shields, USRA; Alexandre M. Ramos, Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa; Bin Guan, JPL

1:45 PM

J11B.1

Contrasting the Enhanced Atmospheric River Activity over the North Pacific and Atlantic Since 1950

Mengxin Pan, Duke University, Durham, NC; and S. Hu

2:00 PM

J11B.2

Conditional Relationship Between Atmospheric River Moisture, Wind, and Precipitation in Satellite Observations

Emilio Yanez Jr., Univ. of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and W. Ma and G. Chen

Handout (3.9 MB)

2:15 PM

J11B.3

Within the Footprint of Atmospheric Rivers, Surface Heat Fluxes from the Ocean into the Atmosphere are Anomalously Weak, even During Formation

Allegra LeGrande, GISS, New York, NY; and J. F. Booth, C. M. Naud, C. Ordaz, and J. Crespo

2:30 PM

J11B.4

The Response of Sea Surface Temperature to Atmospheric Rivers

TIEN-YIAO HSU, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and M. R. Mazloff, S. T. Gille, M. Freilich, B. D. Cornuelle, and R. Sun

2:45 PM

J11B.5

ENSO and MJO Effects on North Pacific AR Speed and Propagation

Margarita Mora, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and L. Fernandes and P. C. Loikith

Coffee Break & Formal Poster Viewing [Hall E (BCC) & Hall F (BCC)]

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Poster Session 3 - 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Sarah Larson, North Carolina State University; Tim Boyer, NOAA

570

Diurnal Variability of Cloud Optical Thickness Derived from DSCOVR/EPIC Observations

Alfonso Delgado Bonal, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and A. Marshak, Y. Yang, and L. Oreopoulos

571

Tropical Tropopause Changes Simulated in CMIP6 Models

Pu Lin, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; GFDL, Princeton, NJ

572

Examining the Influence of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Variability and Tropopause Polar Vortices on Rossby Wavebreaking Regimes

Cameron Raymond Paquette, Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang

573

Coupled Stratospheric Ozone and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Feedbacks on the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Jet Response to 4xCO₂

Clara Orbe, GISS, New York, NY; and D. Rind, D. W. Waugh, J. Jonas, G. Chiodo, X. Zhang, L. Nazarenko, and G. A. Schmidt

575

Global Trends in Mortality Risk Associated with Coastal Flooding

Saurav Timilsina, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA; and J. M. Gohlke and B. F. Zaitchik

574

Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Dynamical Coupling Between the Troposphere and Stratosphere in Earth System Models

576

Assessing Spatial and Temporal Distributions of Extreme Heat for Impact-Based Heat Early Warning Systems in the Carolinas

Lily Raye, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and K. Dello and T. Glotfelty

577

3.5 Inches per Hour: Non Stationary Extreme Precipitation Probabilities Under a Changing Climate in New York City

Carolien Mossel, CUNY, Brooklyn, NY; and N. Devineni, J. F. Booth, and S. A. Hill

578

Analyzing the Climatology of Tornado Outbreaks Relative to Extratropical Cyclones.

Lauren Ann Kiefer, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and D. R. Chavas, D. T. dawson II, and L. Wang

579

Impacts of Climate Change on Future Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest

Tyler Mercurio, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. M. Patricola

580

Overview Discussion of Extreme Events from Mother Nature's Perspective

Alan K K. Betts, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, VT

581

Quantifying the Drivers of Compound Heatwaves and Drought Events in The Contiguous United States

Henry Olasunkanmi Olayiwola, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Furtado, J. B. Basara, J. I. Christian, and T. M. Grace

582

The Role of Global Mitigation in Regional Climate Change in Central/Eastern Europe

Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy and I. Pieczka

Manuscript (2.7 MB)

583

Projected Changes of the Forestry Aridity Index Indicating Regional Climatic Change in Central/Eastern Europe

Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd Univ., Budapest, Hungary; and A. Kis, P. Szabo, and J. Bartholy

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Session 12A

Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and Links to Climate across Time Scales

Location: Ballroom II (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Clara Orbe, GISS; Pu Lin, Aichi University of Education

4:30 PM

12A.1

Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling of Extreme Stratospheric Wave Activity and the Linkage to Cold Events over North America

Gang Chen, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and X. Ding

4:45 PM

12A.2

The Impact of Oceanic Feedbacks on Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in an Idealised Model

Natasha Trencham, GISS, New York, NY; and J. Haigh and A. Czaja

5:00 PM

12A.3

Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Southern Ocean Temperature and Heat Budget

Feng Li, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and P. A. Newman and D. W. Waugh

5:15 PM

12A.4

What Drives the Spread and Bias in the Surface Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in CMIP6 Models?

Ying Dai, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and P. Hitchcock and I. Simpson

5:30 PM

12A.5

Representation and Predictability of Stratospheric Wave Reflection Events in Subseasonal Forecast Models

Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and O. T. Millin

5:45 PM

12A.6

Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Long-Term Trends in Extratropical Wave Forcing, and the Emergence of the QBO-MJO Connection

Lon L. Hood, University of Arizona, Lunar & Planetary Laboratory, Tucson, AZ; The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. A. Hoopes

Session 12C

BAMS State of the Climate 2022, 2023, and beyond

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Tim Boyer, NOAA; Jessica Blunden, NCEI; Derek S. Arndt; Ellen Bartow-Gillies, NOAA/NCEI

4:30 PM

12C.1

Causes and Consequences of the 2020-23 Triple Dip La Niña (Invited Presentation)

Michael J. McPhaden, PMEL, Seattle, WA

4:45 PM

12C.2

The Extreme Sea Surface Temperature and Marine Heatwaves in the Global Oceans in 2023

Boyin Huang, NOAA, Asheville, NC; and X. Yin, J. Carton, L. Chen, G. Graham, T. Smith, and H. M. Zhang

5:00 PM

12C.3

Rapid Attribution of 2022 and 2023 Marine Heatwaves

Joseph Giguere, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ; and D. M. Gilford, PhD and A. Pershing

5:15 PM

12C.4

Global Precipitation for the Year 2023: A Summary and How the Year Fits Into the Trends Associated with Global Warming

Robert F. Adler, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and G. Gu

5:30 PM

12C.5

Lightning: An Essential Climate Variable

Steven J. Goodman, Thunderbolt Global Analytics, Owens Cross Roads, AL; and M. Fullekrug, E. Williams, C. Price, and R. H. Holzworth

5:45 PM

12C.6

Global Vegetation Fires in 2023 As Seen By GFAS in CAMS

Johannes W. Kaiser, SatFire Kaiser, Hofheim am Taunus, HE, Germany; NILU – Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway; and M. Parrington, V. Huijnen, S. Rémy, A. Inness, and J. Flemming

J12A

Artificial Intelligence for Actionable Insights and Applications in Climate Science

Location: 345/346 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Presidential Conference )

Cochairs: Marybeth Arcodia, University of Miami RSMAS; Eleanor A. Middlemas, PhD; Zane Martin; Katie Dagon

4:30 PM

J12A.1

ML to Accelerate Actionable Climate Information: The Importance of Uncertainty Quantification (Invited Presentation)

Hannah Christensen, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, OXF, United kingdom

4:45 PM

J12A.2

A Data-Driven Approach to Identifying Key Regions of Change Associated with Future Climate Scenarios

Zachary Michael Labe, PhD, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, N. Johnson, and W. Cooke

Handout (10.5 MB)

5:00 PM

J12A.3

Understanding Predictability of Extreme SEUS Precipitation Using Explainable Machine Learning

Kathleen Pegion, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. J. Becker and B. Kirtman

5:15 PM

J12A.4

Physics-Informed Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Drift

Heather Hunter, The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD; and M. R. Keller, P. Sicurello, and C. Piatko

5:30 PM

J12A.5

Assessing Global Human Impact and Climate Hazards with Landsat Data and Convolutional Neural Networks

Bryam Orihuela-Pinto, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. Keys, E. A. Barnes, and F. V. Davenport

5:45 PM

J12A.6

A Data-Driven Model of Urban Carbon Emissions at the Human Scale

Constantine Kontokosta, New York University, BROOKLYN, NY; and B. Bonczak

J12B

Atmospheric Rivers: Processes, Impacts, and Communicating Uncertainty II

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation )

Cochairs: Allison Collow, USRA; Christine A. Shields, USRA; Alexandre M. Ramos, Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa; Bin Guan

4:30 PM

J12B.1

Synoptic Drivers of Extreme Precipitation Days in the Upper Yuba Watershed of California

Paul C. Loikith, Portland State University, Portland, OR; and E. N. Russell

4:45 PM

J12B.2

Analyzing Atmospheric River Reforecasts: Error Patterns and Synoptic-Scale Settings

Greta Katherine Easthom, NC State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann, M. J. Molina, L. DeHaan, J. M. Cordeira, and S. D. Smith

5:00 PM

J12B.3

Insights into the Causes and Predictability of the 2022/23 California Flooding

Siegfried Schubert, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; NASA/GSFC and SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and Y. Chang, A. M. DeAngelis, Y. K. Lim, N. P. Thomas, R. D. Koster, M. G. Bosilovich, A. Molod, A. Collow, and A. Dezfuli

5:15 PM

J12B.4

Climate Change Effects on the December 2022 - January 2023 High Impact Series of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Along the U.S. West Coast

Hunter Martinez-Buehrer, Northern Illinois University, Dekalb, IL; and A. C. Michaelis, J. M. Cordeira, A. Gershunov, V. A. Gensini, PhD, CCM, W. S. Ashley, A. Haberlie, and M. M. Ralph

5:30 PM

J12B.5

Surviving the Storms: Evolution of San Francisco Bay Area Extreme Precipitation from Past to Future Climate and Updated Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Actionable Science

Michael Mak, Pathways Climate Institute, San Francisco, CA; and C. L. May, J. Neher, J. Finzi Hart, M. F. Wehner, and C. M. Patricola

5:45 PM

J12B.6

QBO’s Modulation of the Global Atmospheric River Activities

Kai Huang, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Shields, J. H. Richter, K. R. Hall, and Y. Li

J12B

Extreme Precipitation IV

Location: 340 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chairs: Kenneth E. Kunkel, NCEI; Sarah M. Trojniak, NOAA

Cochairs: Kelly M. Mahoney; John W. Nielsen-Gammon

4:30 PM

J12B.1

The Largest United States Area-Averaged Precipitation Events

John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. C. Buley

4:45 PM

J12B.2

Contributions to Changes in Extreme Precipitation over the Northeast US in 25-km GFDL SPEAR

Bor-Ting Jong, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ; Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, H. Murakami, and W. Cooke

5:00 PM

J12B.3

Characteristics and Cause of Changes in Mesoscale Convective Systems within a Convection Permitting Regional Climate Model

Brendan Wallace, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; ANL, Lemont, IL; and A. Haberlie, W. S. Ashley, V. A. Gensini, PhD, CCM, and A. C. Michaelis

5:15 PM

J12B.4

The Past Shapes the Future: 1936 Flood

Nikki Becker, NWS, Gray, ME; and S. Jamison and J. Palmer

5:30 PM

J12B.5

How Does Climate Change Affect Precipitation for Contrasting Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Evolutions? A Case Study of Three Atlantic Hurricanes

Katherine E. Hollinger, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

5:45 PM

J12B.6

Orographic Precipitation from Tropical Cyclones in a Changing Climate: Hurricane Ivan (2004)

Amanda Marie Sinning, NC State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Awards Reception and Ceremony

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Wednesday Night Live

Location: Key Ballroom Salon 1-8 (Hilton Baltimore Inner Harbor)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 13A

Multiyear to Decadal Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction I

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Presidential Conference )

Cochairs: Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/PSL; Matt Newman, CIRES; Weston Anderson, Columbia University; Youngji Joh

8:30 AM

13A.1

Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions: Where Are We Now and What Have We Learned? (Invited Presentation)

Leon Hermanson, Met Office, Exeter, United kingdom; and D. Smith, N. Dunstone, A. A. Scaife, and M. Seabrook

8:50 AM

13A.2

ENSO Forecast Skill in a Changing Climate (Invited Presentation)

Jiale Lou, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and M. Newman, A. J. Hoell, and A. T. Wittenberg

13A.3

Decadal Predictability in a High-Resolution Eddy-Resolving Model: A Signal-to-Noise Paradox Perspective

9:25 AM

13A.4

Skillful Multiyear to Decadal Predictions of Sea Level in the North Atlantic Ocean and U.S. East Coast

Liping Zhang, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, X. Yang, and F. Zeng

Handout (5.3 MB)

9:40 AM

13A.5

The Most Predictable Component of a Linear Stochastic Model

Timothy DelSole, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and M. K. Tippett

Session 13B

African Climate Change and Variability I

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Ross D. Dixon; Akintomide Akinsanola, University of Illinois Chicago; Aissatou Faye Jr.; Kerry H. Cook; Edward K. Vizy

8:30 AM

13B.1

Quantifying Uncertainty in Simulations of the West African Monsoon with the Use of Surrogate Models

Matthias Fischer, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, R. van der Linden, A. Lemburg, G. Pante, C. Proppe, and J. H. Marsham

8:45 AM

13B.2

What Will a West African Extreme Rainfall Event Look like By 2100?

Beth J. Woodhams, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Baden-Württemberg, Germany; and P. Knippertz and A. H. Fink

9:00 AM

13B.3

West African Summer Monsoon Onset Variability and Prediction

William Agyakwah, NOAA, College Park, MD; and Z. T. Segele, E. B. Bekele, and W. M. Thiaw

9:15 AM

13B.4

Understanding the Zonal Variability in CMIP6 Projections of Sahelian Precipitation

Emmanuel Ogwuche Audu, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and R. D. Dixon and I. Diallo

9:30 AM

13B.5

Synchronization of the Recent East African Long Rains Decline and Northwestern Asian Warming

Samson M. Hagos, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA; and P. L. Ma, S. W. Lubis, M.Sc, Ph.D.,, K. Balaguru, P. Shi, O. Garuba, and L. R. Leung

9:45 AM

13B.6

The Mechanisms Controlling the Rainy Season Transition Period in the Southern Congo Basin

Sarah Worden, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and R. Fu

Session 13C

Oscillations and Regimes in Climate Variability

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: David M. Straus

8:30 AM

13C.1

A New Year-Round Weather Regime Classification for North America

Simon Haydn Lee, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and M. K. Tippett and L. M. Polvani

8:45 AM

13C.2

Combined Oscillation-Regime Forecasting

Mary Hendriena Korendyke, MS Climate Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and D. M. Straus

13C.3

Possible Unstable Periodic Orbits of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations

9:00 AM

13C.4

Attribution of Linear and Nonlinear Cross-timescale Interference between ENSO and the MJO and Influences on Seasonal Rainfall Patterns

Laurel Anne DiSera, IRI, Palisades, NY; and A. G. Muñoz and Y. Kushnir

9:30 AM

13C.5

The Forecast Skill of the Northern Hemisphere Middle Latitudes Seasonal Oscillation and its impact on the surface air temperature

Cristiana Stan, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA

9:45 AM

13C.6

Characterizing Persistent Cycles and Trends of Climate Dynamics with Operator-Theoretic Techniques

Dimitrios Giannakis, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH; and G. Froyland, B. Lintner, and J. Slawinska

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: Hall F/ Swing (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Agency Updates; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Lunch Break

Location: The Baltimore Convention Center

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the Town Hall Meetings; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Presidential Conference; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Session 15A

Multiyear to Decadal Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction II

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/PSL; Matt Newman, CIRES; Weston Anderson, Columbia University; Youngji Joh

1:45 PM

15A.1

Identifying the Cross-Season Mechanisms of Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Interaction Driving the Progressive Aridification of the American Southwest

Richard Seager, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and M. Ting, P. Alexander, J. Nakamura, H. Liu, and C. Li

Handout (28.4 MB)

2:00 PM

15A.2

The Role of Ocean Dynamics in Interannual to Decadal Variability and Predictability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

Martha Weaver Buckley, George Mason University, Washington, DC; and Y. O. Kwon, S. Larson, K. McMonigal, and G. Liu

2:15 PM

15A.3

Distinct Mechanisms for Subpolar North Atlantic Surface Climate Change and Roles of Internal Variability under Different External Forcings

Yifei Fan, Pennsylvania State University, STATE COLLEGE, PA; and G. Danabasoglu, W. M. Kim, and L. Li

2:30 PM

15A.4

Multidecadal Variability of Solar Radiation at the Earth's Surface and its Causes

John A. Augustine, NOAA, BOULDER, CO

2:45 PM

15A.5

Oceanic Processes of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability, Revisited

Antonietta Capotondi, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, CO

Session 15B

African Climate Change and Variability II

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Ross D. Dixon; Aissatou Faye Jr.; Akintomide Akinsanola, University of Illinois Chicago; Kerry H. Cook; Edward K. Vizy

1:45 PM

15B.1

The Misrepresentation of Southern African Easterly Jet in Models and Its Implication for Aerosol, Clouds, and Precipitation Distributions

Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, University of California Merced, Merced, CA; and A. Akinsanola and O. Ajoku

2:00 PM

15B.2

How Has the Southern African Biomass Burning Season Changed in the Last 20 Years?

Tyler Tatro, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and P. Zuidema

2:15 PM

15B.3

Examining Future African NH Summer Dust Concentrations and Westward Transport using WRF for Present Day, Mid and Late 21^st Century with MPI boundary conditions

Gregory S. Jenkins, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and D. Colón-Burgos, J. Z. Tindan, and S. Gebremariam

2:30 PM

15B.4

WRF-CHEM Simulations of Saharan Dust for the Periods of 1981–2010, 2041–2060, 2081–2100 Using NCEP, ECMWF Reanalyses, and the CMIP5/CMIP6 GCMS

Jacob Z. Tindan, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and S. Gebremariam, G. S. Jenkins, and M. Rather

2:45 PM

15B.5

Integrating Non-Climate Stressors (Land Use and Malaria Incidences) with Climate Change Indicators to Map Livelihood Vulnerability in Malawi and Mozambique.

Nellie Titani Amosi, USDA, Vernon, CT; and R. Anyah

Coffee Break & Formal Poster Viewing

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Networking and Events; the Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge Systems, Practices and Communities; the 12th AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Daniel Keyser Symposium; the Kuo-Nan Liou Symposium; the 40th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 38th Conference on Hydrology; the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Education; the 28th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface; the 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 27th Conference of Atmospheric Science Librarians International; the 26th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 26th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology; the 24th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 24th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; the 24th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 23rd Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 22nd Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 22nd History Symposium; the 21st Conference on Space Weather; the 20th Annual Symposium on Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 16th Symposium on Aerosol Cloud Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Environment and Health; the 15th Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 14th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 14th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using the Programming Languages of Open Science; the 12th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 12th Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the 12th AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 10th Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Ninth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Sixth Special Symposium on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones; the Fifth Symposium on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion; the Third Symposium on Community Modeling and Innovation; the Second Symposium on Environmental Security; the Second Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the First Symposium on Cloud Physics; the Estimating Wind Speeds of Tornadoes and Other Windstorms; the Polar Meteorology and Oceanography Special Symposium; the Forum on Climate Linked Economics; and the 20th Conference on Major Weather Impacts )

Poster Session 4 - 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Emily J. Becker, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; Weston Anderson, Columbia University

834

Modelling Spatial Pattern of Sea Surface Variability and Projection and Its Influence on Rainfall Dynamics in the Gulf of Guinea.

Oye Ideki, University of Missouri, Columbia MO, Columbia, MO; Univ. of Missouri Columbia, MO USA, Columbia,, MO; and A. R. Lupo

835

Extended-Range Prediction of the Tropical Cyclone Environment in Coupled Global Ensembles

Matthew A. Janiga, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Rushley, K. A. Hansen, and C. A. Reynolds

836

Extended-Range Prediction of Oceanic Surface Wind Speed in Coupled Global Ensembles

Matthew A. Janiga, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Snyder, S. Rushley, K. A. Hansen, and C. A. Reynolds

837

Wildfire Becoming More Severe and Expanding into New Areas in Alaska: Increasing Climate Awareness and Resilience

Rick Lader, IARC, Fairbanks, AK; Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK; and T. J. Ballinger, U. S. Bhatt, P. A. Bieniek, C. Borries-Strigle, J. Hostler, E. Stevens, H. Strader, and C. F. Waigl

838

Diagnostic Metrics for Evaluating Sub-Seasonal Predictions Based on Arctic-Midlatitude Teleconnection

Ha-Rim Kim, Ewha Womans Univ., Seoul, South Korea; and J. H. Sim and B. M. Kim

839

Evaluation of the MJO ENSO Relationship in UFS Forecasts

Loren Doyle, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and C. Stan

840

Modulation of Tornado Activity By Year-Round North American Weather Regimes

Michael K. Tippett, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and K. M. Malloy and S. H. Lee

841

Decadal Change in the Antarctic Sea Ice Response to the Changing ENSO in the Last Four Decades

Young-Kwon Lim, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and D. L. Wu, K. M. Kim, and J. N. Lee

842

An Apparent Eastward Shift in United States Tornadic Activity

James Joseph Miezejeski, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO; and L. Sun, J. W. Hurrell, and M. E. Franke

843

Exploration of an Atmospheric Circulation Related to the Increase in Northern Hemispheric Surface Air Temperatures during Summer

Allen Mewhinney, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park , PA; and S. Lee

844

Unraveling Eastern Mediterranean Daily Maximum / Minimum Temperature's Shifts Linked to Shifting Synoptic Systems' Regimes

Isabella Osetinsky-Tzidaki, ICCLIPP - Israeli Consulting in Climatological Projects and Practices, Bat Yam, M, Israel; and E. Fredj

Handout (1.4 MB)

845

A Mid-Century Shift in AMV Impacts

Charles Ogle, RSMAS, San Diego, CA

Handout (9.9 MB)

846

Dynamics and Model Representation of Two Contrasting Extreme Precipitation Events in the Sahel

Souleymane Sanogo, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques (FST), Université des Sciences des Techniques et de Technologie de Bamako, Bamako, Mali; and M. Maranan, A. H. Fink, B. J. Woodhams, and P. Knippertz

847

Oceanic Influence and Lapse Rate Changes Dominate the Recent Amplified Saharan Warming

Li Zhuo, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany

848

On The Representation of Mesoscale Convective Systems Across West Africa in Kilometer-Scale Global Simulations

Ross D. Dixon, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and I. Diallo, P. A. Monerie, M. Adeniyi, and A. Faye Jr.

849

Identifying the Fingerprint of Climate Change in U.S. Billion Dollar Weather Disasters

Andrew Pershing, Climate Central, Inc., Princeton, NJ; and J. Brady, M. Fleury, J. Giguere, and D. M. Gilford, PhD

850

Calendar Year Climatology of Northern Hemisphere Tropopause-level Jets

Libby Orr, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

851

Evaluation of Calibrated Precipitation Forecast over Africa from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System

Endalkachew B. Bekele, CPC, College Park, MD; UCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. M. Thiaw

37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change ePosters (Thursday)

Location: Hall E (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

E111

The Relationship between Natural Variability and Freezing Rain Frequency over Eastern North America

Esther D. Mullens, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and J. Bonilla

E112

Exploring Stratospheric Mixing using Lagrangian Coherent Structures

Jezabel Curbelo, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, B, Spain; and M. Linz

E113

Assessing the performance of operational CFSv2 & CWRF downscaled seasonal ensemble predictions over CONUS

Aditya Kumar Dubey, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. Shin, C. Sun, G. Li, and X. Z. Liang

E115

Quantification of the Trend in the Airborne Fraction of Atmospheric CO₂

Brian Bennett, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and R. J. Salawitch, L. McBride, A. Hope, and W. Tribett

E116

Assessment of Long-term Variability on Rainfall Distribution and Extreme Flash Flood Events in the Semi-Arid Region of El Paso, Texas

Nakul Nitin Karle, PhD, Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and S. Chiao, J. Laney, J. Barham, and G. Lundeen

E117

Projections of Summertime Hot and Dry Compound Extremes in North America Using SPEAR Large Ensemble Simulations

Jonathan Lee, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, NJ; and L. Jia, C. McHugh, and T. L. Delworth

Handout (2.1 MB)

Session 16A

Multiyear to Decadal Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction III

Location: Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Cochairs: Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/PSL; Weston Anderson, Columbia University; Youngji Joh

4:30 PM

16A.1

Analysis of 21st Century Surface Temperature Trends and Tipping Points

Jonathan H. Jiang, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; JPL, Pasadena, CA; and Y. Wang and Y. Yung

4:50 PM

16A.2

Estimating Forced Variability as a Residual: Application to Basin Mean North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature

Douglas Nedza, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and T. DelSole

16A.3

What aspect of model performance is the most relevant to skillful future projection on regional scale?

5:05 PM

16A.4

An Analysis of the Recent Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trend

Allen Mewhinney, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park , PA; and S. Lee

Session 16C

Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty to the Public

Location: 325 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Chair: Randall Patrick Benson, American Meteorological Society

4:30 PM

16C.1

Assessing and Communicating Climate Change Impacts on Midwest Specialty Crops

Josh Bendorf, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ames, IA; and D. Todey, L. Nowatzke, S. Parker, and B. Bearson

4:45 PM

16C.2

Climate Stress Inertia: A Policy Messaging Response to Farmer Powerlessness and Passivity Cognitions in Drought Extremes in a Jamaican Case Study

Sarah Fay Buckland, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus, Kingston, Jamaica; Universidad del Valle, Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia

5:00 PM

16C.3

Expanding Reach: Enhancing Access to Climate Information through Interactive Web Applications for the General Public

Gonzalo Enrique Espinoza Davalos, Esri, Vienna, VA

5:15 PM

16C.4

Uncertainty in Precipitation and Water Projections in the Climate Change in Colorado Report

Rebecca A. Bolinger, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. Lukas

J16B

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Climate Predictability, Prediction, and Applications

Location: 350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 12th Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )

Cochairs: Andrea M Jenney; Matthew A. Janiga

4:30 PM

J16B.1

On Developing Seasonal Outlooks for Lightning in Alaska

Joshua Hostler, Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK; and U. S. Bhatt, T. J. Ballinger, P. Bieniek, C. Borries-Strigle, M. Burgard, J. Chriest, E. Fischer, R. Lader, Z. Parish, H. Strader, E. Stevens, R. Thoman, and C. F. Waigl

4:45 PM

J16B.2

The Role of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in Subseasonal Forecasts of the North American 2017-2018 Cold Air Outbreak

Oliver T. Millin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Furtado

5:00 PM

J16B.3

Suppressing Non-ENSO forcing with ensemble mean

Priyanshi Singhai, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, KA, India; University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Chakraborty, K. Jana, K. Rajendran, S. Surendran, and K. Pegion

5:15 PM

J16B.4

Prediction of Diverse Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

Baoqiang Xiang, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and B. Wang and G. Chen

5:30 PM

J16B.5

Summer Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Bias Pattern over the CONUS in UFS Prototype 8

Nakbin Choi, George Mason Univercity, Fairfax, VA; and C. Stan

5:45 PM

J16B.6

A Linear Inverse Model for Improved Model Guidance of CPC’s Week 3-4 Operational Temperature Outlooks

Matt Newman, NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. R. Albers, Y. M. Cheng, and M. Gehne

J16B 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Tuesday, 23 January 2024

1:00 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 23 January 2024

Sunday, 28 January 2024

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Sunday, 28 January 2024

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Sunday, 28 January 2024

Monday, 29 January 2024

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 29 January 2024

10:00 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 29 January 2024

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

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Tuesday, 30 January 2024

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Wednesday, 31 January 2024

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7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Wednesday, 31 January 2024

Thursday, 1 February 2024

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

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1:45 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

3:50 PM-4:30 PM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 1 February 2024

Tuesday, 23 January 2024

1:00 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 23 January 2024

Sunday, 28 January 2024

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Sunday, 28 January 2024

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Sunday, 28 January 2024

Monday, 29 January 2024

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7:30 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 29 January 2024

Tuesday, 30 January 2024

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Thursday, 1 February 2024