Frontier Earth System Modeling for Next-generation U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections

Following significant steady progress over the last few decades, the predictions and projections that we have today are providing invaluable and freely available information for a broad array of climate and environmental services. The unprecedented challenges posed by climate change demand a “next-generation” of actionable predictions and projections in support of better and expanded climate services. Desirably, these would better represent extremes, hazards and tipping points, integrate across natural and human systems, and provide finer details, higher fidelity and accuracy; they would better quantify predictability, uncertainty, risks and opportunities. To render it more actionable, predictive information could be increasingly customized to decision-making; could simultaneously and more consistently depict climate, socio-economic impacts, adaptation and mitigation responses; could be accompanied by more rapid science-based translations of implications, risks and opportunities.

Federally-funded U.S. climate modeling centers are well poised to accelerate progress towards the “next-generation” of climate predictions and projections. Their work is at the frontier of climate science and Earth system modeling. Together with a broad set of partners in the broad community they are pursuing the most promising scientific and technological opportunities.

Looking to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections to meet the new predictive challenges of our time, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives for transformative opportunities around a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency plans. Tangible outcomes of the envisioned transformative approach include projections at less than 10 km representing extremes and associated risk, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support the next generation of climate services.