Session 1B Seasonal-to-Decadal Earth System Prediction I

Monday, 29 January 2024: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
350 (The Baltimore Convention Center)
Host: 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submitters:
Stephen G. Yeager, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Jon Robson, Univ. of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading and Bill Merryfield, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC
CoChair:
Stephen G. Yeager, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Predicting impactful Earth system change on climate timescales is a research challenge with clear societal relevance that has seen rapid progress in recent years. Initialized ensemble climate simulations, such as the decadal prediction experiments coordinated by the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) of the World Climate Research Programme, have considerably expanded the temporal and phenomenological horizons of what we consider to be potentially predictable environmental change. At the same time, new questions have emerged relating to model fidelity, sources of predictability, and optimal prediction system design. This session aims to bring together researchers focused on seasonal, multiyear, and decadal prediction to promote cross-fertilization across communities that share the common goal of advancing our understanding of predictable climate signals and our ability to harness them for societal benefit. We invite prediction-focused abstracts from diverse disciplines (ocean, atmosphere, land, sea ice, biogeochemistry) and particularly welcome contributions that bridge disciplines and/or timescales.

Papers:
8:30 AM
1B.1
Sea Surface Salinity as a Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictor for Summer Precipitation in the Midwest
Juliette Rocha, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and M. Arcodia, J. K. Rader, M. Fernandez, and E. A. Barnes

8:45 AM
1B.2
An Extratropical Contribution to the Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Seasonal Climate Prediction
Jeff Knight, The Met Office, Exeter, United kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United kingdom; and A. A. Scaife and A. Maidens

9:00 AM
1B.3
Impact of ENSO and Trends on the Distribution of North American Wintertime Daily Temperature
Emily J. Becker, University of Miami, Miami, FL; CIMAS Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and M. K. Tippett

9:15 AM
1B.4
Seasonal Predictability of Weather Type Frequencies Over the Contiguous United States
Erin Towler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Done, M. Ge, A. F. Prein, and E. Gilleland

9:45 AM
1B.6
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner