Characterizing Patterns of Cropland Change in Regions with Changing Climates

Land use and climate interact through complicated two-way feedbacks. Land cover change can alter local and remote hydrology and climate factors; at the same time, changes in climate can affect the suitability of land for certain uses, potentially driving adaptive land use changes. Globally, agricultural lands are being affected by changes in temperature and water availability. Some regions are experiencing longer growing seasons and increased moisture levels, while others face damaging temperatures and more frequent extremes. We combine cropland data products based on MODIS and Landsat, climate reanalysis data, and land management data to quantify how cropland area changed in regions with significant changes in temperature and moisture availability from 2000-2019. Globally, croplands already at the bounds of climate suitability showed the strongest correlation to climate changes, tending towards expansion in warming cool regions and reduction in drying arid regions. However, these patterns vary by region, land use history, crop type, and other land management factors. We evaluate several different patterns of cropland change, identify regions where climate change is associated with expansion or reduction in cropland area, and identify factors that may alter cropland responsiveness. Understanding these patterns and characteristics is key to better understanding the two way feedbacks between land use change and climate change.