Climate Informed NOAA Precipitation Frequency Atlas of the United States (Invited)

Since the 1960s, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been the authoritative source for the Precipitation Frequency Atlas of the United States. Over the past two decades, NOAA has published regional NOAA Atlas 14 studies across the U.S. up through Volume 11 which covers Texas. NOAA estimates play a crucial role in the design, planning, and management of most of the nation's infrastructure and are referenced in many federal, state, and local regulations. However, aging infrastructure nationwide is becoming increasingly impacted by a changing climate. Consequently, the national Precipitation Frequency Atlas requires revision to account for the impact of a changing climate, ensuring infrastructure is designed to endure anticipated precipitation amounts over the coming decades.

The recent Bipartisan Infrastructure Law directs NOAA to revise and update the Precipitation Frequency Atlas, as NOAA Atlas 15, to account for short-term temporal nonstationarity and the integration of future climate projections. This national update will provide consistent, high quality, authoritative rainfall estimates that have continuous spatial coverage across the U.S. and affiliated territories.

NOAA Atlas 15 will be delivered in two volumes. Volume 1 estimates will be derived using historical observations accounting for observed historical temporal trends, and the estimates in Volume 2 will incorporate future climate model projections in the form of adjustment factors to adjust the Volume 1 estimates to account for expected future trends. This presentation will provide a comprehensive overview of the development of Atlas 15, including its scope and projected timelines. It will serve as an introduction to two additional presentations that will discuss in greater depth the Atlas 15 statistical framework and the development of climate adjustment factors.