J9B Extreme Precipitation III

Wednesday, 31 January 2024: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
340 (The Baltimore Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 38th Conference on Hydrology; and the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chairs:
Kenneth E. Kunkel, NCEI, Center for Weather and Climate, Asheville, NC and John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University, Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX
Cochairs:
Kelly M. Mahoney and Sarah M. Trojniak, NOAA, College Park, MD

This session invites papers on all aspects of extreme precipitation, including atmospheric river (AR) events, convective storms, hurricanes, typhoons, extreme snowfall events, their relationship to floods, and hydrologic impacts. Possible topics include observations (e.g., rain gauge networks, ground-based radar, satellite retrievals, multi-sensor fusion, etc.), modeling, exploration of key physical processes, short-term and seasonal prediction, orographic and elevation-based relationships, climate change, and risk assessment. Papers exploring the causes and consequences of individual extreme precipitation events that cause floods or terminate droughts, details of the relationship between extreme precipitation and flooding, extreme snowfall accumulation and melt, as well as key factors that inform decisions around changing extreme precipitation and flood risk are particularly encouraged. 

Submitters:  Kelly M. Mahoney, Earth System Research Laboratories/ Physical Sciences Laboratory, NOAA, BOULDER, CO; Kenneth E. Kunkel, North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC and John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

Papers:
8:45 AM
J9B.2
Investigation of Ensemble-Based Nowcasting for Predicting Excessive Rainfall within the MRMS System
Steven M. Martinaitis, Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO) and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Anthony, D. Meyer, and S. Rearden

9:00 AM
J9B.3
Hatched: The struggle of communicating Intensity with the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook
James Correia Jr., CIRES, Boulder, CO; NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and S. M. Trojniak, W. M. Bartolini, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

9:15 AM
J9B.4
Using Average Recurrence Intervals to Identify Intensity Risk in the Day 1 Time-period
Sarah Marie Trojniak, CIRES-CIESRDS @ NOAA/NWS/WPC/HMT, College Park, MD; and J. Correia Jr., W. M. Bartolini, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

9:30 AM
J9B.5
Analysis of HREF Summertime Extreme precipitation forecasts over three years
Janice L. Bytheway, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and D. R. Stovern, K. M. Mahoney, S. M. Trojniak, and J. Correia Jr.

9:45 AM
J9B.6
A Climatology of Qualitative Precipitation Forecast Errors for Mesoscale Convective Systems in the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast
Anna Carolyn Duhachek, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and K. J. Franz

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner