Analyzing the Climatology of Tornado Outbreaks Relative to Extratropical Cyclones.

Tornadoes have caused billions of dollars in damage and are one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the United States per year. Recent studies have predicted that severe storms and tornadoes will become less frequent yet more extreme in the future due to a warming climate. In addition, an eastward shift in tornado activity has been observed. Similar changes have also been seen in extratropical cyclones. Due to relatively little recent research on synoptic-scale drivers of tornadoes, there is not an up-to-date understanding of how the recent spatial shifts and predicted changes in frequency and intensity of tornadoes relate to similar changes in extratropical cyclones. ERA5 reanalysis, extratropical cyclone tracks, and historical tornado data are combined to analyze the climatology of tornado outbreaks relative to extratropical cyclones and the thermodynamic environments that the cyclones produce. Since tornadoes have been known to often occur within the warm sector of developing extratropical cyclones, we will determine the location and intensity of the cyclones and their fronts to quantify the frequency of tornado outbreak occurrences driven by the cyclones and how they vary spatially and temporally. By analyzing relations between these two features, we will better understand how tornadic activity is associated with key features of extratropical cyclones and be able to better predict when and where tornadoes will occur and how they may change in the future. This is important in order to prepare for any further shifts in tornado activity especially towards areas that do not typically encounter such events. Improvements in infrastructure and increased awareness of safety measures for unexpected regions will help to mitigate financial loss and loss of life due to future tornadoes.