Session 13A Multiyear to Decadal Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction I

Thursday, 1 February 2024: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
Ballroom III/ IV (The Baltimore Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 37th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Presidential Conference )
Cochairs:
Antonietta Capotondi, NOAA/PSL, Boulder, CO; Matt Newman, CIRES, Physical Science Laboratory, Boulder, CO; Weston Anderson, Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Palisades, NY and Youngji Joh

Multiyear to decadal climate variability is a fundamental aspect of the global climate system. Major international efforts are underway to provide predictions that can help decision-maker planning for the next several years to decades, but the key mechanisms driving such long-term variations, and the differing sources of predictability on multiyear vs. decadal timescales, are still not fully understood. Processes both within ocean basins and inter-basin interactions are considered important at these timescales, but to-date the magnitude of these influences remains unknown, as is the impact of atmospheric/terrestrial processes. Separation of natural decadal variability from externally-forced components is also critical but challenging. This session invites contributions examining mechanisms of internal multiyear to decadal variability in the oceans, land, and/or atmosphere, studies attempting to isolate the internal and anthropogenically forced components and their interactions in observational and model datasets, and related prediction efforts using empirical/machine learning, theoretical and modeling approaches.

Papers:
8:30 AM
13A.1
Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions: Where Are We Now and What Have We Learned? (Invited Presentation)
Leon Hermanson, Met Office, Exeter, United kingdom; and D. Smith, N. Dunstone, A. A. Scaife, and M. Seabrook

8:50 AM
13A.2
ENSO Forecast Skill in a Changing Climate (Invited Presentation)
Jiale Lou, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and M. Newman, A. J. Hoell, and A. T. Wittenberg

9:25 AM
13A.4
Skillful Multiyear to Decadal Predictions of Sea Level in the North Atlantic Ocean and U.S. East Coast
Liping Zhang, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. L. Delworth, X. Yang, and F. Zeng

Handout (5.3 MB)

9:40 AM
13A.5
The Most Predictable Component of a Linear Stochastic Model
Timothy DelSole, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and M. K. Tippett

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner