Detection and Estimation of Extreme, Short-Duration, Small-Area Rainfall

We will examine polarimetric radar methods for detection and estimation of extreme short-duration (less that 6 hours), small-area (less than 100 sq. km.) rainfall. For detection of extreme rainfall, we will develop polarimetric signatures based on 3-D fields of reflectivity, differential reflectivity, specific differential phase shift and correlation coefficient. Analyses will focus on dynamical processes associated with updrafts and downdrafts, microphysical processes inferred from polarimetric retrievals of raindrop size distributions and Lagrangian analyses of storm structure, motion, and evolution. Advances in detection of extreme rainfall will contribute to polarimetric radar methods used for estimation of extreme rainfall and for characterizing the error properties of rainfall estimates. Analyses are directed at storms that are relevant for estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP).