Projected Changes in ENSO influence on Summer Monsoon Regional Precipitation in CMIP6 Simulation

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant influence on regional hydroclimate patterns through extensive teleconnections. While ENSO events primarily peak during boreal winter, their repercussions on summer monsoon circulation and precipitation are also significant. During the boreal summer, concurrent monsoonal winds modulate the strength of ENSO teleconnections. In this study, we identify high performing General Circulation Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 based on their representation of ENSO teleconnections to precipitation in various tropical and subtropical regions during the boreal summer (JJA). Focusing on this ENSO induced regional precipitation response, we compare future (2015-2100) RCP8.5 projections to historical (1970-2014) simulations to investigate how summer precipitation teleconnections evolve in these projections. We then analyse the effect of Walker Circulation and Monsoon Circulation on ENSO-induced regional precipitation anomalies. Understanding. The interactions between these phenomena can inform projections of ENSO-related climate hazards and benefits in the 21st century.