Using WRF Simulations to Analyze Processes Linking Soil Moisture Paradigms and Convective Initiation in the Central and Southern Great Plains of the United States

Soil moisture is a significant factor in land-atmosphere interactions, governing the surface energy balance and the resultant influence on the planetary boundary layer. Because of this, the influence of soil moisture regimes on convective initiation can be relatively complex. There is a lack of consensus over whether convective initiation is favored over dry or wet soil moisture regimes, leading to additional uncertainty over the mechanisms that link soil moisture to precipitation processes. To address this question, this analysis will use the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model with an inner domain resolution of 1.35 km to simulate various case studies of summertime convective events in the Southern Plains of the United States. Several case events from August 2011, May 2015, and August 2015 will be used, specifically chosen because synoptic-scale influence is minor or negligible. The goal is to evaluate the response and change in convective initiation in these simulations as the underlying soil moisture regimes are changed, using wet/saturated soils (field capacity), dry soils (wilting point) and heterogeneous situations where soil moisture gradients are artificially introduced. Intensity, placement, and timing of convection will be compared between each scenario and event, as well as an analyzing changes in boundary layer moisture, instability and thermodynamic properties that result from the experiments.